Nigeria recorded a rebound in crude oil production in March, but continued to fall short of its 1.5 million bpd output target.
Latest data from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) shows that Nigeria’s crude production rose to 1.38 million barrels per day (bpd) in March 2026, up from 1.31 million bpd in February, a 5.25 per cent increase.
The recovery reflects incremental gains in output, but remains below the country’s assigned quota of 1.5 million bpd, leaving a shortfall of about 117,000 bpd. Industry analysts say the gap highlights ongoing bottlenecks ranging from infrastructure constraints to supply chain inefficiencies.
OPEC’s figures, based on direct communication with Nigerian authorities, contrast with higher estimates from secondary sources, which placed March output at 1.46 million bpd, up slightly from 1.44 million bpd in February.
Recent domestic data points to even stronger output levels. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) reported production of 1.84 million bpd in early April, while the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), put output at 1.71 million bpd; figures that, if sustained, would bring Nigeria closer to or above its OPEC quota.
Despite the inconsistencies, Nigeria retained its position as Africa’s top oil producer in March, outperforming Libya, which recorded 1.30 million bpd during the period.
The production increase comes against a backdrop of volatility within the global oil market. OPEC reported that total crude output from member countries averaged 35.06 million bpd in March, reflecting production adjustments across the alliance amid shifting demand dynamics.
However, more recent data points to significant disruptions, with OPEC crude output said to have dropped by 27.5 per cent to 20.79 million bpd, one of the biggest declines in recent decades.
For Nigeria, the immediate challenge remains closing the gap between actual production and its quota, while addressing underlying structural issues that have constrained output in recent years. These include pipeline vandalism, underinvestment in upstream assets, and regulatory uncertainties.
Analysts note that while recent gains show improving stability, sustained growth will depend on aligning operational performance with policy reforms and investment flows. Bridging the discrepancy between official and independent production data is also seen as critical to restoring investor confidence and enhancing transparency in the sector.
