Nigeria’s 2026 fiscal policy framework is being interpreted as a decisive shift toward domestic production and industrialisation, according to the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE). However, the organisation warns that the transition may impose significant adjustment pressures on businesses heavily reliant on imports.
In a policy brief released Sunday, CPPE Chief Executive Officer Muda Yusuf said the federal government’s newly approved measures; spanning tariff revisions and import restrictions, underscore a deliberate strategy to reduce import dependence and strengthen local industry capacity.
Central to the framework are changes to the Import Adjustment Tax across 192 tariff lines, alongside duty reductions on key industrial inputs. The policy also introduces a National List covering 127 items that will attract lower tariffs ranging between zero and 10 per cent.
More notably, tariffs on a broad spectrum of imported finished goods, including food, textiles, plastics and metal products, have been raised significantly, with combined duties now ranging from 20 to 70 per cent. According to CPPE, this is expected to increase the cost of imports while enhancing the competitiveness of locally produced alternatives.
“The policy coherence—higher tariffs on finished goods alongside lower tariffs on inputs—clearly signals a structured industrialisation pathway,” the centre stated.
The policy is projected to benefit sectors such as agro-processing, light manufacturing, packaging and basic metals, as rising import costs could redirect demand toward domestic production. At the same time, reduced tariffs on machinery and intermediate goods are expected to lower production costs and stimulate manufacturing growth.
However, CPPE cautioned that the reforms could strain import-dependent businesses through higher import bills and compressed profit margins. Firms may be forced to reassess their operating models in response to the evolving trade environment.
The organisation also flagged concerns over what it described as insufficient fiscal protection for Nigeria’s domestic petroleum refining sector, despite recent investments in local refining capacity. It recommended the introduction of protective tariffs on locally refined petroleum products to encourage further investment and reduce foreign exchange pressures.
In addition, CPPE called for a reassessment of tariffs on used vehicles, noting that cumulative charges exceeding 50 per cent could restrict access to transportation and negatively impact employment in sectors such as ride-hailing.
To mitigate economic pressures, the centre proposed lower import duties and tax waivers for mass transit vehicles and renewable energy equipment, measures it says could ease transportation and energy costs for both businesses and households.
For investors, CPPE advised alignment with the government’s production-focused agenda, encouraging increased participation in local manufacturing, value-chain integration and production-oriented investments.
