Nigeria exported 55.39 million barrels of crude oil in the first two months of 2026, even as the Dangote Petroleum Refinery struggles with inadequate domestic feedstock supply.
Latest data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) show that 31.31 million barrels were shipped in January and 24.08 million barrels in February. Crude production averaged 1.46 million barrels per day (mbpd) in January, with exports at 1.01 mbpd, before declining to 1.31 mbpd in February, with exports of 0.86 mbpd.
Total production over the two-month period stood at 81.94 million barrels, leaving 26.55 million barrels available for domestic refining; far below the requirements of Nigeria’s largest refining facility.
The export strength comes despite mounting supply challenges at the 650,000 barrels-per-day Dangote refinery, which has repeatedly flagged insufficient access to locally produced crude, forcing increased reliance on imports.
Industry data indicate that the refinery has faced a cumulative supply shortfall of approximately 79.53 million barrels between October 2025 and mid-March 2026. While the plant requires about 19.77 million barrels monthly to operate at full capacity, actual deliveries have remained significantly below this threshold.
Breakdowns show the refinery received 4.55 million barrels in October, 6.45 million in November, 4.30 million in December, 5.65 million in January, and 4.66 million in February, with only 3.6 million barrels supplied in the first half of March. In total, just 29.21 million barrels were delivered over the five-and-a-half-month period, against an estimated requirement of 108.74 million barrels, representing a supply performance of roughly 26.9 percent.
The imbalance persists despite Nigeria’s status as Africa’s largest crude producer and the framework of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which prioritises domestic supply before exports. Market participants say a significant share of output continues to be exported under existing trading arrangements.
Under the naira-for-crude structure, the refinery has also raised concerns over pricing and volume constraints. The facility reportedly receives about five cargoes monthly from Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC), compared to a requirement of 13 cargoes, with supplies priced at international benchmarks plus premium.
The supply gap has had downstream implications, contributing to multiple fuel price adjustments. Petrol prices recently rose above N1,300 per litre before easing to around N1,250, reflecting elevated crude sourcing costs amid global supply disruptions.
Dangote refinery officials attribute the pricing pressures to limited domestic supply, noting that reliance on imported crude attracts additional premiums from international traders.
NNPC sources, however, maintain that the company is leveraging its global trading network to source third-party crude for the refinery at competitive rates. The national oil firm said it remains committed to supporting domestic refining within the constraints of current supply availability.







