MTN Nigeria’s return to profitability is increasingly reshaping investor perception of the telecom giant, with the company now emerging as one of the clearest examples of how foreign exchange volatility , rather than weak consumer demand, became the defining threat to corporate earnings during Nigeria’s recent macroeconomic crisis.
Unaudited results for the first quarter of 2026 released by the telecom operator show that the company has not only recovered from the severe FX-driven losses that destabilised its balance sheet between 2023 and 2024, but is now entering a new phase of earnings expansion powered by data consumption, fintech growth, and improving operating leverage.
The company reported a pre-tax profit of N546.42 billion in Q1 2026, representing a 169.64 percent increase from N202.65 billion recorded in the corresponding period of 2025. The performance marks MTN Nigeria’s second-strongest quarterly pre-tax result since listing on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), coming only slightly below the record N569.59 billion achieved in the fourth quarter of 2025.
The latest earnings reinforce what analysts increasingly describe as one of the strongest corporate recovery stories currently unfolding in Nigeria’s capital market.
Despite the rebound in profitability, the company’s recent struggles were never primarily linked to weak demand. Rather, MTN Nigeria’s crisis stemmed largely from balance-sheet pressures triggered by exchange-rate volatility.
Even during the worst phases of the FX crisis, Nigerians continued spending aggressively on internet access, streaming services, digital banking, online commerce, and mobile connectivity; sectors that became increasingly essential amid rising digitisation across the economy.
That underlying demand resilience quietly kept MTN’s commercial engine running even while accounting losses mounted. The numbers reveal the extent of that resilience.
Revenue rose consistently from N2.01 trillion in 2022 to N2.47 trillion in 2023 before rising to N5.20 trillion in 2025. Momentum has remained strong in 2026, with first-quarter revenue climbing 41.6 percent year-on-year to N1.49 trillion.
At the current pace, analysts estimate the telecom giant could generate close to N6 trillion in annual revenue this year, potentially establishing a new benchmark for Nigeria’s telecom industry.
The company’s ability to sustain strong revenue growth through one of Nigeria’s most volatile macroeconomic periods highlights how digital connectivity has become increasingly non-discretionary for consumers and businesses alike.
Data consumption remains the primary driver behind that expansion.
MTN Nigeria’s transition from a voice-dominated telecom operator into a data and digital services business accelerated significantly over the review period.
Back in 2022, voice revenue remained the company’s largest income source, contributing roughly 43 percent of total revenue compared with 38 percent from data services.
That balance shifted decisively in 2023 when data revenue overtook voice earnings for the first time, reflecting changing consumer behaviour as Nigerians increasingly prioritised internet access over traditional voice communication.
By 2025, data had firmly established itself as MTN’s dominant revenue engine.
Data revenue rose 74.5 percent to N2.78 trillion during the year, accounting for more than 53 percent of total revenue. Data subscribers grew by 11.6 percent to 53.2 million users, supported by rising smartphone penetration, increased video streaming, remote work adoption, digital payments, and broader social media usage.
Mobile subscriber growth also remained strong, rising by 7.9 percent to 87.3 million subscribers.
The company’s fintech operations similarly delivered rapid expansion.
Fintech revenue jumped by 79.7 percent to N191.27 billion, while active MoMo wallet users increased by 30.8 percent to 3.7 million users, reinforcing MTN’s growing ambition to evolve beyond traditional telecom services into a broader financial technology and digital platform business.
However, despite these strong operational fundamentals, MTN Nigeria’s earnings were devastated by the foreign exchange shock that followed the devaluation of the naira after the liberalisation of the FX market.
The company recorded foreign exchange losses of N740.43 billion in 2023 as the weakening naira significantly increased the revaluation burden on foreign currency obligations and lease liabilities.
The situation worsened in 2024 when FX losses deepened further to N925.36 billion.
Those losses were severe enough to erase operating profits entirely and push the company into successive net losses despite continuing revenue growth.
MTN Nigeria posted a profit after tax of N349 billion in 2022 before slipping into a N137 billion loss in 2023. By 2024, losses had expanded dramatically to approximately N400 billion. The deterioration significantly weakened the company’s balance sheet.
Retained earnings fell to a negative N607 billion, while shareholders’ funds declined to negative N458 billion, raising concerns among investors over the company’s capital position and long-term sustainability.
The market reaction was swift.
MTN Nigeria’s share price, which traded as high as N293 during 2024, eventually fell back to around N200 as investors aggressively repriced the stock amid concerns over persistent FX exposure and deteriorating earnings quality.
But the company’s recovery since then has been equally dramatic.
The stock has rallied notably from around N200 in 2024 to as high as N915 in April 2026 before moderating to N801.10 as of May 8, 2026.
The rebound has lifted MTN Nigeria’s market capitalisation to N16.8 trillion, making it the third most capitalised stock on the Nigerian Exchange.
A major turning point in the recovery came in 2025 as FX pressures moderated and the naira stabilised relative to previous periods.
The company recorded a net FX gain of N90.27 billion in 2025, followed by another N33.3 billion FX gain in the first quarter of 2026.
That reversal fundamentally changed the earnings profile of the business.
For the first time in several years, MTN’s strong operating profitability was no longer being completely wiped out by exchange-rate revaluation losses.
Karl Toriola, the company’s chief executive officer, attributed part of the turnaround to tighter operational discipline and improved cost efficiency.
“Despite a challenging cost environment, strong operational discipline kept operating expenses well contained, delivering meaningful operating leverage,” Toriola said while commenting on the Q1 2026 results.
“EBITDA increased by 68.1 percent, and EBITDA margin expanded by 8.7 percentage points to 55.3 percent, in line with our medium-term guidance of a mid-to-high 50 percent margin range. As a result, PBT rose by 169.6 percent to N546.4 billion,” he added.
The company’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) rose strongly to N2.74 trillion, while return on assets improved to 25.9 percent.
Importantly for shareholders, the recovery has also restored MTN Nigeria’s dividend-paying capacity after the FX crisis disrupted profitability and weakened retained earnings.
The company declared a total dividend of N20 per share for the 2025 financial year, signalling growing confidence in earnings sustainability and cash flow strength.
Still, risks remain.
Although profitability has recovered sharply, financing costs continue to exert pressure on earnings.
MTN Nigeria recorded finance costs of N143.27 billion in Q1 2026 alone — almost equal to the N147.29 billion finance cost recorded during the entire 2022 financial year.
This followed a total finance cost of N524.91 billion reported in 2025, underscoring the continued impact of elevated borrowing costs and lingering financial obligations.
Macroeconomic conditions also remain uncertain.
Inflationary pressure, currency volatility, regulatory changes, energy costs, and interest rate dynamics continue to pose operational risks for telecom operators across Nigeria.
Nevertheless, investor sentiment around MTN Nigeria has improved significantly as concerns over the company’s FX exposure begin to ease.
Analysts note that despite the sharp rally in the share price, valuation metrics suggest the stock may still not be excessively stretched relative to the pace of earnings recovery.
MTN Nigeria currently trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of roughly 15x, while its PEG ratio of about 0.32x suggests earnings growth may still be outpacing current market valuation levels.
That has strengthened expectations that the telecom giant could continue attracting institutional and foreign investor interest if earnings momentum remains intact.
With FX pressures easing, stronger operating profitability finally beginning to flow through earnings, and digital demand continuing to expand, MTN Nigeria now appears positioned to move beyond survival mode into a new phase of growth-led recovery.
