Russia’s decision to halt the export of aviation fuel to the global market until the end of November is set to shake-up the international jet fuel arena, offering Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery a special sales window for the next six months.
Industry watchers say the situation would further alter the global aviation fuel market, which was already experiencing a supply gap due to the disruptions from the Middle East war.
They also said it could bolster Dangote Refinery to expand sales and strengthen its position in the global energy market.
Russia government, in a move that highlights growing pressure on its energy sector, announced a temporary ban on the export of its jet fuel, until November 30. The move has created a substantial supply gap in the international aviation fuel market.
Energy experts explain that Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery appears significantly positioned to exploit this opportunity by increasing its export market share in Africa and Europe.
Lagos, Nigeria-based Dangote refinery has recently emerged Africa’s and indeed one of the world’s top jet fuel exporters, with Europe now its biggest export market.
At home in Nigeria, Dangote has become the dominant supplier of aviation fuel. The Airlines Operators of Nigeria (AON) says the refinery now supplies more than 95 percent of Nigeria’s Jet A1 demand, and had exported approximately 1.1 billion litres of aviation fuel to Europe between March and April alone.
Reports said jet fuel imports from Dangote by European buyers recently increased to record levels, plucking the gaps already caused by disruptions in the Middle East, as well as reduced supplies from Russia. The African largest refinery records an impressive 57 million barrels of jet fuel export.
To wit, Dangote refinery since March, increased gasoline export to a number of African countries, including Cameroon, Ghana, Ivory Coast, and Tanzania, which have been hit by the U.S.-Israel-Iran war, as regional buyers increasingly shift away from imported fuel from Europe and the Middle East.
Russian officials said the decision to halt jet fuel export was aimed to stabilize domestic fuel supplies as the European country faces refinery disruptions caused by Ukraine’s renewed attacks on its energy infrastructure. However, the restriction will allow certain strategic export commitments to continue, as well as not apply to fuel deliveries made under intergovernmental agreements.
Once a major player in global fuel markets, Russia has seen its direct role in supplying Europe reduce substantially since the country’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and the subsequent sanctions regime. Notwithstanding, Russia’s crude has continued to influence global fuel markets indirectly through third countries that refine and re-export petroleum products.
Energy industry watchers say the new Russia move further strains the global aviation fuel market by removing another major supplier from a market already scarred by the Iranian international crisis. All this is coming at a time fuel traders and airlines are scurrying for alternative sources.
Friday Udoh, a petroleum economist and gas value chain expert, speaking on the implications of Russia’s decision to suspend jet fuel export until November end, told Business A.M. that, it creates a rare occasion for Dangote Refinery to extend its grasp on major aviation fuel markets across Africa, and indeed Europe.
“The timing couldn’t be better for Dangote Refinery, a 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery, which has rapidly metamorphosed from a domestic fuel supplier into one of the world’s most important aviation fuel exporters,” Udoh said.
He said, today, Dangote refinery has become Europe’s strongest aviation fuel supplier, with the region becoming jet fuel destination and market where the refinery currently exhibits the greatest influence.
Data from S&P Global Commodities at Sea said, in April this year (2026), Dangote refinery emerged the world’s biggest exporter of aviation fuel, following disruptions to traditional supply routes caused by the Iran, Israel and the United States conflicts.
Industry data also shows that Dangote supplied roughly 20 percent of Europe’s imported jet fuel volumes during the height of the recent supply crunch, a significant achievement for a refinery that only began production in 2024.
David Bird, chief executive officer (CEO) of Dangote refinery recently informed that the company switched operations into “max jet mode” to capitalize on global shortages. With Russia now suspending exports until at November end, Dangote looks good to capture even greater market share in Europe while strengthening its position as Africa’s dominant jet fuel supplier.
Reuters reported that, Nigerian (Dangote) aviation fuel exports to Europe climbed to a record 66,000 barrels per day in April, hitting 770 percent, even as the African continent grappled with shortages caused by Middle East disruptions in supply routes.
Prior to the recent geopolitical tensions which have disrupted established trade routes, European nations had relied on the Gulf for about 75 percent of their aviation fuel imports. The conflicts have forced buyers to diversify their sources of supply. As the disruptions in the Middle East grew, European fuel traders progressively sought alternative suppliers to reduce their dependence on a single region.
