Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is expected to rise by about 65 per cent by 2050, underscoring the fuel’s growing role in the global energy transition despite mounting geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions, according to Shell Plc.
In its 2026 LNG Outlook, the energy major projected global LNG demand to reach nearly 700 million metric tonnes annually by 2050, driven by rapid industrialisation across Asia, rising electricity consumption from artificial intelligence-powered data centres and the shift away from coal in developing economies.
The forecast reinforces LNG’s position as one of the fastest-growing segments of the global energy market at a time when governments are seeking cleaner alternatives to coal while maintaining reliable power supplies.
Shell said global LNG trade reached 422 million metric tonnes in 2025 and is expected to remain broadly stable this year before resuming stronger growth from 2027 as supply disruptions ease.
The outlook comes after conflict in the Middle East temporarily disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic maritime corridor that handles about one-fifth of global LNG exports each month.
The company said the disruption exposed the vulnerability of global energy supply chains but also demonstrated the resilience of the LNG market.
“The conflict created a system-wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” said Cederic Cremers, Shell’s president of Integrated Gas.
According to the report, the impact of the disruption has been mitigated by stronger production from existing LNG facilities, expanded regasification capacity, slower import demand across parts of Asia and increased output from North American liquefaction projects.
Asian LNG imports declined by nearly 4 per cent to 127.7 million metric tonnes during the first half of 2026, while spot LNG prices briefly climbed above $20 per million British thermal units at the height of the Middle East crisis before easing as supply conditions improved.
Shell noted that prices remained well below the record levels seen after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, reflecting greater flexibility in the global LNG market.
The company expects around 180 million metric tonnes of new LNG production capacity to enter the market by 2030, improving supply availability and moderating prices.
However, it warned that significantly more investment will be required beyond projects already under construction.
According to Shell, the world will need approximately 200 million metric tonnes of additional annual LNG production capacity through the 2030s and 2040s to meet projected demand.
The report identified South and Southeast Asia as the principal engines of future LNG demand, forecasting that the regions will account for about 40 per cent of global LNG imports by 2050 as governments replace coal-fired generation with lower-emission natural gas to support expanding economies.
Europe is also expected to remain a major LNG market as declining domestic gas production and increasing reliance on renewable energy reinforce the need for flexible gas supplies to stabilise electricity systems.
“While more investment in both supply and demand infrastructure is needed, the long-term outlook remains strong and LNG will continue to be a stabilising force in the global energy system,” Cremers said.
