Nigeria is expected to remain one of Sub-Saharan Africa’s stronger-performing economies despite escalating geopolitical tensions and a weakening global economy, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) maintaining its growth forecasts on the back of ongoing macroeconomic reforms.
In its July 2026 World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology, the IMF retained Nigeria’s economic growth projections at 4.1 per cent for 2026 and 4.3 per cent for 2027, leaving its April forecasts unchanged.
The Fund said recent policy reforms have strengthened macroeconomic stability and improved Nigeria’s resilience even as the global economy faces renewed uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East.
“Nigeria is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms of trade, with Nigeria being an oil exporter,” said Deniz Igan, division chief in the IMF’s research department, during the Fund’s virtual briefing on the report.
The assessment positions Nigeria among the region’s more resilient large economies at a time when the IMF expects global growth to slow to 3.0 per cent in 2026 from 3.5 per cent in 2025, reflecting the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict despite productivity gains from advances in artificial intelligence.
While higher crude oil prices are expected to improve Nigeria’s terms of trade, the IMF cautioned that rising prices of essential goods could undermine part of those gains by worsening poverty and food insecurity.
“There is some offset to that positive terms of trade effect because higher prices for essentials are expected to aggravate poverty and food insecurity,” Igan said.
The Fund also maintained its 2027 growth forecast of 4.3 per cent, signalling confidence that Nigeria’s reform agenda is laying the foundation for sustained economic expansion despite persistent external headwinds.
Across Sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF projected economic growth of 4.3 per cent in 2026, slightly above its April forecast, before improving to 4.5 per cent in 2027. However, it noted that the regional outlook masks wide differences in economic performance, reflecting varying levels of reform implementation, fiscal policy space and exposure to external shocks.
According to the IMF, the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East has tempered what had been a broad-based recovery across the region in 2025.
“The war obviously has clouded the outlook for 2026, and we are now projecting a softening of growth to 4.3 per cent in the region as a whole,” Igan said.
Beyond energy markets, the Fund warned that rising fertiliser prices could pose an additional challenge for African economies, particularly as higher input costs coincide with planting seasons in several countries where agriculture remains a major contributor to output and employment.
The IMF said countries that sustain macroeconomic reforms, preserve policy credibility and strengthen resilience to external shocks will be better positioned to navigate an increasingly uncertain global environment marked by geopolitical tensions and rapid technological change.
