To core economists and related professionals, the Nigerian economy at present, can be said to be undergoing quick patches; with a lot of the federal government’s efforts directed at amending, adjusting, refining, or hewing the many rough edges, to fill the numerous gaps, in its economic reforms. The Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) is either literally deploying self-adhesive tape to seal gaping gaps in its much-hyped reforms or advertently adopting new initiatives to shape its manifesto for the early-2027 general elections.
Put differently, the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration, barely ten months to the end of its four-year first term, seems to be embarking on the reform of its reforms, so as not to have only mere statistics to show Nigerians in its manifesto during electioneering for 2027 general elections. After all, the much-bandied stabilisation of the macroeconomy through the FGN reforms merely translates to “economic growth without development”: parading figures that say nothing about the deepening and fast-spreading hardship and penury in the land.
As the administration turned three at end-May 2026, it has busied itself in the past two months (June-July) setting up advisory and ad hoc committees of various hews to review the entirety of its reforms, and/or specific areas. The FGN also adopted some ‘emergency’ multi-pronged initiatives (something akin to the usual palliatives) in the area of social investment to commence addressing poverty reduction and human capital development.
Taiwo Oyedele, the minister of finance and coordinating minister of the economy, who assumed office in April, has been President Tinubu’s arrowhead in setting up and/or inaugurating the multiplicity of committees and sub-committees. Instructively, the minister had to admit that all had not been well with the ‘form’ and outcomes of the government’s reforms, and set up a high-caliber ministerial advisory committee (MAC), with a blanket mandate to holistically review the reforms.
Speaking during the inauguration of the committee, Oyedele charged the MAC to “provide independent, evidence-based reviews” of the government’s economic reforms, and urged them to “challenge existing assumptions rather than merely endorse government positions.” Further presenting the ‘blank cheque’ mandate, the minister said the MAC “should offer external, data-driven advice to strengthen economic policymaking and ensure that reforms translate into improved living standards for the people.”
Barely two weeks after putting the MAC in place, Oyedele inaugurated another panel — an interministerial committee — to review Nigeria’s Value Added Tax (VAT). Specifically, the committee is to develop a new VAT Modification Order 2026 — that would align VAT administration with the new Tax Reform Acts that took effect 1 January 2026. The committee has a timeline of six weeks, from its inauguration date of 25 July 2026, to complete the assignment, and submit recommendations.
The panel is mandated to draft a new, “modern, coherent, and forward-looking” VAT Modification Order as well as recommend legislative amendments where necessary. The minister also urged the committee to consult with public and private sector-stakeholders in pursuit of their mandate. The issue of VAT, notably, was a very controversial one during Oyedele’s work as the chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms.
Although the VAT review committee is expected to turn in its report in six weeks, it is doubtful if the panel would be through with its mandate within the short time frame. VAT has remained a touchy issue among the three-tiers of government, and even geopolitical zones. It is almost inevitable that the work of the VAT review committee would necessitate legislative amendments, given the fact that value added tax is nowhere in the Nigerian constitution. So, every necessary change has to be given proper legal backing.
While the VAT review panel takes off, the FGN in a move to begin to fill up the long-standing, gaping void of sparse social investment, also launched a three-pronged initiative, just after the third-year anniversary of the Tinubu administration. The $3.05 billion ‘social investment package’ is reportedly to “ensure the gains of the economic reforms translate into tangible improvements in the lives of ordinary Nigerians.”
Speaking at the launch of the initiative in Abuja, President Tinubu, represented by his finance minister, Taiwo Oyedele, said the programmes represented a coordinated national strategy to reduce poverty, strengthen resilience and build the human capital required to achieve the country’s ambition of becoming a $1 trillion economy by 2030. According to the president, the development intervention, largely supported by the World Bank, is to help the FGN deepen poverty-reduction, strengthen human capital and expand economic opportunities across the country.
The funding package comprises $1.25 billion Nigeria Community Action for Resilience and Economic Stimulus Additional Financing (NG-CARES AF), $300 million Solution for Internally Displaced Persons and Host Communities (SOLID) Programme, and $1.5 billion Human Capital Opportunities for Prosperity and Equity (HOPE) Programme. Interjecting the manifesto tone in all of this, however, President Tinubu described the initiatives as more than government programmes, saying they were “promise kept” under the Renewed Hope Agenda “to protect vulnerable Nigerians, empower communities and deliver inclusive development.”
All these are ‘unfolding’ ten months to the expiration of the President Tinubu first term; and worrisomely, the modus operandi of these tong-twisting (social investment) names, are nowhere in the public domain. Certainly, the full commencement of NG-CARES AF, SOLID and HOPE would be bogged by some time lag (most likely) all through the year; and their actual take off could be swamped by politics and electioneering towards 2027.
As a core part of the quick patches the Nigerian economy is undergoing at the moment, it was only at the 7th Africa Emerging Markets Forum in Abuja (July 30, 2026) that the FGN promised to give Nigerians details of fuel subsidy savings since May 29, 2023. The finance minister, Taiwo Oyedele, who spoke for the government, pledged to publish a detailed account of how savings from the removal of fuel and foreign exchange subsidies have been utilised in the past three years.
Notably, Oyedele made the pledge while responding to concerns raised by Dr. Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s chief economist and senior vice-president for development economics, who said that Nigerians remain unconvinced that the gains from the reforms had translated into better living conditions. Gill noted that while the government had increased revenues, reduced subsidies, and narrowed the fiscal deficit, “it is not clear to people whether savings and the additional resources have been spent,” urging the minister to explain how the reforms had improved the lives of Nigerians.
In the frenzy for the quick patches on the economy, the FGN has practically been on a borrowing binge, both from local and foreign sources — all leading to mounting public debt. Unfortunately, the ballooning public debt has not translated into marked improvement in infrastructure or any other index. From N144.67 trillion in December 2024, Nigeria’s public debt shot up by more than ten percent a year later to stand at N159.28 trillion at end-December 2025. It has kept soaring in leaps and bounds!
And as the FGN applies all manner of ‘tricks’ to keep borrowing, a former President of the World Bank, David Malpass, has raised concerns over Nigeria’s growing use of collateral-backed borrowing, warning that “increasingly opaque debt structures could complicate future debt restructuring and discourage investment if the country’s debt becomes unsustainable.” Malpass made the remarks in a new World Bank Policy Research Working Paper titled ‘Public Debt and Central Banks.’
The former World Bank chief argued that collateralised sovereign borrowing had become less transparent across several developing economies, including Nigeria, creating what he described as “a new race toward seniority in the capital structure.” In a similar vein, the IMF recently cautioned Nigeria over its plan to raise up to $5 billion through a derivatives-based financing arrangement with First Abu Dhabi Bank, warning that such transactions are often complex and lack transparency.
But if there is anything that has become the hallmark of the Tinubu administration, it is lack of transparency in all facets of governance. Horrible revelations about the 2026 Appropriation Act in recent times typify the ways of the administration. From budget allocations to ‘fake’ departments and agencies, to allocations of billions of Naira for the building and refurbishment of palaces across the country, etc.
All these and many more are obviously towards the packaging of the manifesto, and building of war chest for the 2027 general elections. And so, the quick patches on the economy proceeds ad nauseam!
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Marcel Okeke, a practising economist and consultant in Business Strategy & Sustainability based in Lagos, is a former Chief Economist at Zenith Bank Plc. He can be reached at: obioraokeke2000@yahoo.com; +2348033075697
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