Cameroon’s cocoa industry suffered a sharp earnings setback in the 2025/26 season as adverse weather cut marketed production by one-fifth and drove a decline in export volumes, exposing the country’s vulnerability to climate-related supply disruptions.
Marketed cocoa production fell 20 percent to 247,914 tonnes in the season ended July 15, 2026, from 309,518 tonnes a year earlier, according to data from the National Cocoa and Coffee Board (ONCC). The decline reversed the record output achieved in 2024/25 and left Cameroon with its lowest marketed cocoa production in five years.
But the bigger economic impact was felt in export earnings. The free-on-board value of cocoa exports and processed cocoa shipments plunged 58.9 percent to 580.4 billion CFA francs, from 1.4 trillion CFA francs in the previous season.
The deterioration highlights the growing exposure of Cameroon’s cocoa economy to weather volatility, while raising concerns over the outlook for farmers, processors, exporters and government revenues if production weakness persists into the 2026/27 season.
Export volumes take bigger hit
The supply shock was amplified by a sharp contraction in exports.
Cameroon’s cocoa exports fell 34.7 percent to 125,469 tonnes, from 192,012 tonnes in 2024/25, with Europe remaining overwhelmingly the main market.
European destinations accounted for 84.6 percent of shipments, while Asia represented 14.2 percent and Africa 1.1 percent.
Domestic processing also weakened, suggesting that the production decline affected both export-oriented and local value chains.
Cocoa delivered to industrial and artisanal processors dropped to 95,946 tonnes, from 110,388 tonnes a season earlier.
Weather emerges as major supply risk
The downturn followed an unusually strong 2024/25 season, when marketed production rose from 266,710 tonnes to 309,518 tonnes, exceeding Cameroon’s annual target of 300,000 tonnes.
The reversal has been attributed largely to unfavourable weather.
Cameroon’s Coffee-Cocoa Council said intense heat and unusually dry and strong Harmattan winds affected cocoa production across West Africa. Disease-weakened cocoa trees were also affected, with the weather conditions contributing to the dropping of flowers and limiting the development of the crop.
The consequences are now extending into the next production cycle.
Trade Minister Luc Magloire Mbarga Atangana has warned of a “possible further decline in supply” during the 2026/27 season, signalling that the latest production decline could represent more than a one-season disruption.
Government deploys CFA280bn to support farmers
The production and export slowdown has also prompted direct government intervention in the cocoa market.
Cameroon’s government spent 280 billion CFA francs to purchase 100,000 tonnes of cocoa beans from farmers during the season, according to the Coffee-Cocoa Council.
The buyout operation was designed to support farmers as slower export activity weakened the market and reduced the pace at which cocoa was being absorbed.
The intervention effectively provided a demand backstop for producers at a time when international trading activity was slowing.
However, the scale of the intervention also underscores the financial pressure that a prolonged supply and export shock could place on the government and the wider cocoa value chain.
Farmgate prices also became more volatile during the season.
Prices ranged between 700 CFA francs and 4,300 CFA francs per kilogramme, compared with 3,210 CFA francs to 5,400 CFA francs per kilogramme in 2024/25.
The lower price range came despite the fall in production, reflecting the weakness in market conditions and export demand during parts of the season.
ONCC data showed that ending cocoa stocks increased to 40,447 tonnes, from 13,947 tonnes in the previous season.
Including carryover inventories, total cocoa available during the season reached 261,862 tonnes.
The increase in stocks provides some buffer against supply disruptions, but it also reflects the difficulty of moving available cocoa through export and processing channels.
With exports falling by more than one-third, the challenge for Cameroon is increasingly shifting from simply producing cocoa to ensuring that the crop can be efficiently absorbed by domestic processors and international markets.
