Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) FZE could achieve a market capitalisation of N77.7 trillion at a 12-month target price of N688.09 per share, representing a potential 39.6 percent return from the reference price of N525, CardinalStone Research has projected.
The investment research firm, in its September 2026 initiation of coverage on the refinery, said the projected return comprises 31.1 percent capital appreciation and an estimated 8.5 percent dividend yield.
CardinalStone arrived at the valuation using a combination of discounted cash flow and relative valuation methodologies, placing the refinery’s planned initial public offering (IPO) against the backdrop of rapidly improving operating performance and growing dominance of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum market.
The valuation projection comes as Dangote Industries Limited prepares for the planned IPO of the refinery, potentially creating one of Nigeria’s largest publicly accessible industrial investment opportunities.
Aliko Dangote, president and chief executive of Dangote Industries Limited, said the offering would provide Nigerians with an opportunity to move from being consumers of refined petroleum products to becoming shareholders in the asset.
He said the listing represented more than a financial transaction, arguing that it would give Nigerians direct participation in the value chain supporting economic activity across the country.
“What makes this IPO unique is that it gives people the opportunity not only to consume but also to participate as owners in the industrial system that powers economic life,” Dangote said.
CardinalStone said the refinery’s investment case is underpinned by its scale, high-complexity configuration, flexible crude sourcing model and access to both the Nigerian and wider African markets.
The research firm noted that Africa continues to face a substantial mismatch between refined-product demand and domestic supply, leaving the continent heavily dependent on imports.
With a Nelson Complexity Index (NCI) of 11.5, the refinery is capable of achieving refined-product yields of more than 90 percent per barrel while producing higher-value products that meet Euro V specifications.
CardinalStone said the refinery’s high complexity gives it the ability to convert crude into a broad range of higher-value products across the yield curve, strengthening its earnings potential as production scales up.
Its position in Nigeria’s downstream market has also strengthened rapidly.
According to CardinalStone, DPRP supplied approximately 80.8 percent of domestic Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) between January and June 2026, while domestic sales represented about 47.5 percent of its volumes over the last five quarters.
The figures point to the refinery’s growing importance to Nigeria’s fuel supply chain and its potential to capture a larger share of value previously generated through imports.
The refinery’s operational performance has improved significantly since commercial production began.
Throughput increased from 225,000 barrels per day in 2024 to 410,000 barrels per day in 2025, lifting utilisation from 34.6 percent to 63.1 percent.
Revenue subsequently increased by 94.6 percent year-on-year to $12.3 billion in 2025, while EBITDA swung from a $425.1 million loss in 2024 to a positive $545.3 million.
Momentum accelerated in the first half of 2026, with revenue rising 150 percent year-on-year to $13.9 billion, while EBITDA reached $2.6 billion.
Average utilisation climbed to 86 percent of the refinery’s 650,000 barrels-per-day capacity during the period.
The company subsequently increased capacity to 700,000 barrels per day in the second half of the year, further strengthening its ability to supply the domestic and regional markets.
CardinalStone also highlighted the refinery’s longer-term expansion plans, which could significantly increase its global competitive position.
The research firm recalled plans to raise refining capacity to 1.4 million barrels per day by 2028 through a $12.4 billion expansion programme.
If completed as planned, the expansion would make DPRP the world’s largest single-location integrated refining and petrochemical complex, surpassing India’s Jamnagar refinery.
The expansion also includes increasing polypropylene production capacity to 2.4 million tonnes per annum from 830,000 tonnes.
CardinalStone said the petrochemical business could provide an additional source of earnings diversification while increasing the value extracted from every barrel of crude processed.
The combination of refining and petrochemicals, it added, could strengthen the refinery’s resilience against fluctuations in individual product markets.
Despite the bullish outlook, CardinalStone identified several risks that could affect the refinery’s earnings and valuation, including crude supply, expansion execution, foreign exchange, regulation and market competition.
The research firm noted that the refinery has had to source some crude from the open market despite its supply agreement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), exposing the business to fluctuations in international crude prices.
Higher crude prices could increase feedstock costs and put pressure on refining margins, although greater access to domestic crude could provide some protection against supply disruptions associated with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
Execution delays in the expansion programme could also affect the refinery’s projected growth trajectory, while exchange-rate movements could influence its financial performance.
Increased competition in regional refined-product markets presents another potential pressure as new refining capacity comes on stream.
However, CardinalStone said tight global refined-product supply could provide support for refining margins, potentially strengthening the earnings outlook.
