Oil prices recovered as renewed geopolitical risks in the Middle East offset improving crude flows from the region and the Group of Seven’s decision to release up to 100 million barrels from emergency reserves to contain energy costs.
Brent crude futures for December delivery rose 0.5 percent to $102.79 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for November gained 0.1 percent to $91.24. Despite the late-week rebound, both benchmarks remained on course for weekly declines, with Brent down 1.5 percent and WTI 1.2 percent.
The market’s direction reflected competing forces: rising crude shipments from the Middle East and the coordinated G7 stock release are easing immediate supply concerns, while renewed tensions between the United States and Iran are keeping traders wary of potential disruptions to one of the world’s most important oil corridors.
The G7 announcement emerged as the major market development on Friday, with member countries agreeing to coordinate the release of up to 100 million barrels of emergency crude stocks over four months through the International Energy Agency.
The intervention is aimed particularly at easing pressure on global energy prices, with diesel emerging as a major concern for governments and consumers.
The G7 said the coordinated release was intended to stabilise immediate energy supplies, protect households and businesses from price shocks and strengthen the resilience of global energy markets.
Middle East crude exports jumped 36 percent week-on-week to 17.92 million barrels per day, according to TankerTrackers.com, indicating that oil shipments through the region have recovered despite continuing geopolitical tensions.
The increase was partly supported by Saudi Arabia’s restart of its East-West Pipeline, which had been shut for several days following drone attacks by Iran-backed Houthi militants.
The recovery in exports has helped ease some of the supply fears that pushed crude prices sharply higher during September.
However, the improvement in flows has not removed the geopolitical risk premium from the market.
The United States and Iran remain locked in a confrontation over the security and control of the Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant share of global oil and energy shipments passes.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that Washington was considering deploying another aircraft carrier group and additional troops to the Middle East by the end of November.
The report also said President Donald Trump had told aides he expected U.S. strikes on Iran to resume in November after the U.S. midterm elections.
Iran’s state media subsequently reported that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had warned that any aggression or threat would trigger a “painful” and “devastating response”.
The developments have kept traders focused on the possibility that military escalation could disrupt crude flows even as current shipping data points to stronger exports.
Diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran have also failed to produce a breakthrough.
Expectations of progress during the United Nations General Assembly last month faded after Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian exchanged sharply worded speeches, while negotiations between representatives of both countries produced no tangible agreement.
The unresolved dispute over the Strait of Hormuz therefore remains a central risk for oil markets.
The G7 intervention also reflects growing concern over the impact of the Middle East conflict on refined fuel markets.
Global diesel prices have risen amid the conflict and disruptions to Russian energy infrastructure caused by Ukrainian strikes.
In the United States, the national average diesel price reached a record $6.5276 per gallon on September 22 and remained elevated at about $6.3726.
The increase is adding to transportation and industrial costs while creating additional political pressure ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
The White House has reportedly encouraged European countries to draw down emergency diesel inventories to increase global supply.
There had also been speculation that Washington could restrict diesel exports to protect domestic supplies, although Trump subsequently said the United States would not impose an export ban.
The G7 crude-stock release represents a broader attempt to address the supply pressure through coordinated intervention rather than restrictions on trade.
The impact on prices will depend partly on how quickly the emergency stocks reach the market and whether additional supply offsets continuing geopolitical risks.
The oil market is therefore entering a period in which improving physical supply and emergency government intervention are competing with the possibility of renewed disruption in the Middle East.
The 36 percent weekly increase in Middle East crude exports points to stronger near-term availability, while the G7 release could provide an additional buffer.
But any renewed military confrontation involving Iran could quickly reverse that improvement, particularly if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is affected.
The competing forces have already produced greater volatility in crude and refined-product markets.
Heating-oil futures initially extended their losses after the G7 announcement before reversing direction. November heating oil futures were last up 1.2 percent at $4.5559 per gallon.
