The World Bank has raised its projection for Nigeria’s economic growth in 2026 to 4.3 percent, citing improving macroeconomic stability, strengthening investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment, even as persistent poverty and inadequate job creation threaten to limit the benefits of the expansion.
The Washington-based financial institution, in its October 2026 Africa Economic Update released on Tuesday, also projected that Nigeria’s economy would expand by 4.4 percent annually in 2027 and 2028, up from an estimated 4.0 percent growth rate in 2025.
“Economic activity in Nigeria is projected to strengthen from 4.0 percent in 2025 to 4.3 percent in 2026, before edging up to 4.4 percent annually in 2027–28,” the bank said, attributing the expected improvement to greater macroeconomic stability, stronger investor confidence and a gradual recovery in private investment.
The revised outlook follows Nigeria’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.43 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The World Bank said Nigeria was among the African economies whose growth forecasts had been upgraded, reflecting the effects of economic reforms and improved macroeconomic management.
Despite the stronger growth projections, the World Bank warned that Nigeria’s expansion remains insufficient to generate enough productive employment and deliver a substantial reduction in poverty.
The institution said poverty reduction would likely remain constrained by elevated fuel prices associated with the conflict in the Middle East, which continue to place a disproportionate burden on low-income households.
The World Bank also raised its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa to 4.3 percent in 2026, from its previous projection of 4.1 percent, indicating a stronger regional outlook despite a difficult global environment.
Andrew Dabalen, the bank’s chief economist for Africa, said the region had remained resilient amid external pressures, including higher energy prices linked to disruptions caused by the conflict involving Iran.
However, the regional outlook remains complicated by the uneven distribution of growth benefits. The bank noted that per-capita income growth continues to lag overall economic expansion, limiting the region’s progress in reducing poverty.
The World Bank said sustained reforms, increased private investment, better infrastructure, human capital development and stronger productivity would be necessary to convert macroeconomic stability into more inclusive and durable improvements in living standards.
It also urged African governments to embrace artificial intelligence (AI) and other digital technologies to improve productivity and create jobs, while addressing infrastructure deficiencies and skills gaps that could prevent businesses and workers from benefiting from technological advances.
