Global trade is gathering momentum despite higher tariffs, geopolitical tensions and disruptions to major shipping routes. For Nigeria, the challenge is whether this expanding international market can translate into more diversified exports, stronger domestic production and sustained economic growth.
The latest DHL Globalisation Tracker, produced in collaboration with New York University’s Stern School of Business, reports that the value of sub-Saharan Africa’s trade increased by 11 percent in the first five months of 2026 compared with the same period in 2025. East Asia and the Pacific recorded growth of 24 percent, while Europe registered 12 percent.
Globally, goods trade expanded faster in the first half of 2026 than in any half-year in the preceding 15 years, apart from the exceptional rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic. The report forecasts average annual growth of 3.4 percent through 2029, above the 2.7 percent recorded over the previous decade.
Demand for goods used to build artificial intelligence infrastructure, including semiconductors and data-transmission equipment, has been a major driver of this expansion.
For Nigeria, however, a stronger global outlook does not automatically translate into higher export earnings or broader industrial growth. The country’s latest trade figures show rising merchandise exports and a substantial trade surplus, but also continued dependence on petroleum and uneven performance across non-oil sectors.
The central question is whether Nigeria can turn favourable international conditions into a more competitive and diversified export economy.
Nigeria’s exports are rising, but composition matters
Nigeria recorded total merchandise trade of approximately ₦76.23 trillion in the first half of 2026, based on the National Bureau of Statistics’ quarterly figures. Exports accounted for approximately ₦48.19 trillion, while imports amounted to ₦28.04 trillion, leaving a trade surplus of about ₦20.15 trillion.
The first-half export total compares with approximately ₦43.35 trillion in the corresponding period of 2025. On that basis, merchandise exports increased by roughly 11.2 percent in nominal naira terms.
The increase is significant, but it needs to be interpreted carefully. It is a six-month comparison measured in naira, not the January–May growth rate used in the DHL report. Nor does an increase in export value necessarily indicate a comparable increase in the quantity of goods shipped or the competitiveness of Nigerian producers.
The composition of exports is equally important.
In the second quarter of 2026, Nigeria exported goods worth approximately ₦27.02 trillion, according to NBS figures. Crude oil accounted for ₦12.91 trillion, while other petroleum products contributed approximately ₦10.38 trillion.
Together, these categories represented about 86 percent of total merchandise exports during the quarter.
The figures underline the continuing importance of petroleum to Nigeria’s external trade position. They also show why a rising trade surplus cannot, on its own, be treated as proof that the country has achieved meaningful export diversification.
A stronger assessment requires looking at what Nigeria sells, the markets it serves, the quantities shipped and the value retained within the domestic economy.
Raw-material exports surge as agriculture faces pressure
Developments in the non-oil export sector offer a more mixed picture.
Raw-material exports rose sharply in the first half of 2026, according to an analysis of NBS data published by TheCable. Their value reached approximately ₦3.84 trillion, compared with ₦1.86 trillion in the corresponding period of 2025.
Solid-mineral exports also increased, suggesting that international demand for some Nigerian mineral and raw-material products may be contributing to the broader export expansion.
Such growth can provide opportunities for producers, miners, logistics companies and other businesses involved in moving goods to overseas markets.
The longer-term economic benefits, however, depend partly on whether Nigeria can develop competitive processing industries where commercial conditions permit. Processing raw materials domestically can create additional economic activity and employment, but requires reliable electricity, financing, technology, infrastructure and access to buyers.
Agricultural exports have followed a different trajectory.
NBS figures according to media reports show that agricultural exports fell to approximately ₦803 billion in the second quarter of 2026, down 36.1 percent from about ₦1.26 trillion in the corresponding quarter of 2025.
Cashew nuts in shell, cocoa beans and sesame seeds were among the leading agricultural exports.
The decline raises questions about the resilience of Nigeria’s agricultural export base. However, the figures alone do not establish the reasons for the fall. Commodity prices, seasonal production, shipment timing, international demand and product quality could all affect export values.
Further commodity-level analysis will be needed to establish which factors were most important.
What the figures demonstrate is that rising aggregate exports can coexist with setbacks in individual sectors. A more diversified export economy requires not only growth in selected commodities, but also greater consistency across agricultural and industrial producers.
Non-oil exports offer a foundation for growth
Nigeria’s non-oil export sector has nevertheless demonstrated an ability to generate significant international business.
The Nigerian Export Promotion Council reported that formal non-oil export receipts reached $6.1 billion in 2025, up 11.5 percent from $5.46 billion in 2024. Export volumes increased to approximately 8.02 million metric tonnes, according to the council.
The figures suggest that Nigerian exporters have opportunities beyond petroleum, although the performance of individual products and companies varies.
For these businesses, expanding exports requires more than access to overseas demand. Producers must meet international quality standards, maintain consistent supply, finance production and shipments, and deliver goods at competitive costs.
Smaller firms may face particular challenges in meeting certification requirements, securing working capital and managing transport and border costs.
Improving those conditions could help existing exporters expand and allow more businesses to enter international markets. It would also make it easier to assess whether rising export receipts are translating into a broader productive base.
The council’s annual non-oil export figures and the NBS merchandise trade statistics use different reporting approaches and should not be treated as directly interchangeable. Together, however, they provide useful perspectives on Nigeria’s export performance.
African markets offer opportunities for Nigerian businesses
The African Continental Free Trade Area provides another potential avenue for expansion.
Nigeria already trades extensively with other African economies. NBS figures show that exports to African countries reached approximately ₦6.65 trillion in the second quarter of 2026, with Togo, South Africa and Côte d’Ivoire among the leading destinations.
These established trade relationships offer a basis for examining how Nigerian companies might expand their regional customer base, develop new supply relationships and increase the scale of their operations.
The AfCFTA framework aims to reduce barriers to trade across the continent. But formal market access does not guarantee that businesses will find it profitable to export.
Transport infrastructure, customs procedures, payment systems, regulatory differences and the cost of meeting product standards can all affect commercial decisions.
For Nigeria, the test is whether regional integration produces more sales, repeat orders and investment in competitive domestic production.
AI is reshaping global trade, but the gains will not be automatic
The DHL tracker identifies AI infrastructure investment as a powerful driver of recent global goods trade.
Goods used to build AI infrastructure accounted for 42 percent of global goods trade growth in 2025, according to World Trade Organisation (WTO) and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) analysis cited in the report. Their contribution increased to 76 percent in the first quarter of 2026.
The trend illustrates how investment in emerging technologies can generate demand across international supply chains, benefiting countries that produce specialised equipment, components and other inputs.
For Nigeria, the immediate implications are less certain. The DHL findings do not establish that the country is already benefiting substantially from the AI-related trade boom.
Potential opportunities could emerge through competitive industrial inputs, technology-enabled services or investment in supporting infrastructure. But identifying viable opportunities requires evidence of actual demand, production capabilities and the willingness of international businesses to source from Nigeria.
The wider lesson is that global trade growth does not benefit all countries equally. Capturing new opportunities depends on the ability to supply what buyers need at the required price, quality and scale.
The challenge is turning growth into lasting gains
The improved global trade outlook offers a favourable backdrop for Nigeria’s efforts to diversify exports and strengthen domestic production.
But the country’s latest trade figures present a mixed picture: merchandise exports are rising, raw-material shipments have expanded and the trade surplus has grown, while petroleum continues to dominate exports and agricultural shipments have weakened.
These developments point to the importance of looking beyond headline trade values.
Export volumes, product composition, destination markets and domestic value addition will help determine whether the expansion represents a durable improvement in competitiveness. The cost of power, access to finance, transport efficiency, port operations and predictable regulation will also influence whether Nigerian businesses can compete more effectively.
The next stage of the analysis will require a comparable January–May assessment of Nigeria’s trade performance against the regional figures reported by DHL. Further data on individual commodities and additional evidence from exporters and trade specialists would help explain which sectors are benefiting and where the main constraints remain.
For now, the evidence establishes that Nigeria’s merchandise exports grew in the first half of 2026 and that the international trade outlook has strengthened. It does not yet show that Nigeria has captured the full benefit of the global trade expansion.
The opportunity is to turn rising trade values into a broader export base, more competitive domestic businesses and greater participation in regional and international supply chains. Whether that happens will depend on what Nigeria produces, how efficiently its businesses can deliver it and how successfully they convert market access into sustained export growth.
