Nigerian market operators predict positive year-end as ASI closes above 39,000pts

Market operators and analysts are in consensus that the Nigerian equities market would close higher year-end, giving the latest bullish push and positive economic data as influencers.

Gariba Kurfi, managing director, Apt Securities, and Funds, who spoke to business a.m in an exclusive interview, said that the Nigerian equities market would likely end the year 2017 on a positive note. He, however, warned that the benchmark index may fall short of rising above 45 basis points.

Kurfi also indicated that market capitalization would inch up to N14 trillion plus.

He recalled that the listing of 800 million ordinary shares of Global Spectrum Energy Services Plc. at N5 per share on main board of the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE), in November added a total of N4 billion to market capitalization, which further deepened the Nigerian capital market.

Also assessing the behavior of the market during the period under review, Boniface Okezie, the prominent investor, and chairman, Progressive Shareholders Association of Nigeria (PSAN) in a telephone chat, said 2017, from all indications, shall witness a positive end.

“This does not mean that people won’t sell their shares to buy what they need during this festive season as in the previous years, they will still do and the up and down movement of the market would be on as usual but won’t impact market indices negatively at the close of the market for the year.”

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Their views may be based on recent performance of the market, which went from a flip-flop performance in September to start posting positives in the fourth quarter.

Specifically, the NSE all-share index recorded a growth of 1.51 percent to close at 39,075.30 basis points as against 37,974.58 points, representing 1.37 percent appreciation over the previous transaction Monday. This is just as market capitalization, which opened at N13.225 trillion, achieved an increase of N181billion or 1.37 per cent to close at N13.406 trillion.

Market performance, however, contradict Oscar Onyeama, the chief executive officer of the Nigerian Stock Exchange, the outlook for the year. While addressing market operators and analyst on the outlook for 2017 early in the year, said the developments in the global oil market, liquidity level in the foreign exchange markets, and realignments in fiscal and monetary policies would dictate trading pattern and performance of the stock market in 2017.

He emphasized that in the absence of proper management policies to stimulate economic growth and favourable developments from the economic indicators, market performance in the year 2017 may remain bleak.

The Nigerian stock market had maintained a bearish outlook to close the year 2016 on a negative note by as high as 6.17 percent in line with the 17.36 percent loss posted in the year 2015.

Since 2014, the equities market has been on a downward trend, as it extended losses consecutively to post a three-year loss of 34.97 percent. As a result, investors’ confidence remained significantly low prior to 2017 as market net worth declined by N3.98 trillion in three years.

However, in 2017 a waning bearish momentum was observed when compared with the previous years, especially in the Q2 when yield hunters took over the market to seek reward – dividend, and bonus. The burst in Q2 2017, though in line with developments in as many years, was massive, which helped push year-to-date gain higher and imbue some modicum of confidence in the market.