Ghana records 5-year low inflation of 10.3% in January, fuelling expectation of rate cut

Inflation in Ghana slowed to the lowest in at least five years, which could give the central bank room to resume rate cuts, according to analysts, especially Renaissance Capital that expects a 50 to 100 basis points cut.

According to data released by the Ghana Statistical Services Wednesday, consumer prices rose 10.3 percent in January from a year ago compared with annual growth of 11.8 percent in December.

Baah Wadieh, acting government statistician at the Ghana Statistical Services, told reporters in Accra that the rate is the slowest since January 2013.

The Bank of Ghana kept its benchmark interest rate at 20 percent in January after consumer prices didn’t slow as quickly as it anticipated toward the target of 6 percent to 10 percent.

The drop in inflation, according to Mark Bohlund, Bloomberg Economics, partly reflected base effects from an increase in energy sector levies in January 2017 and price growth may ease into the target range in March and April.

“The drop is bigger than what we’re expecting,” Yvonne Mhango, an economist at Renaissance Capital in Johannesburg, is reported to have said, adding that  “It gives the central bank scope to cut interest rates at its next meeting.”

RenCap forecasts a cut of 50 to 100 basis points when the monetary policy committee meets in March, she said.