Is Africa about to implode? (5)

POST-COLONIAL AFRICA IS ENTERING A NEW PHASE historically, socio-politically and economically. Many events unfolding in recent times bear eloquent witness to this fact. Countries within the continent are faced with existential challenges such as food security, social security, economic security, climate change and health challenges. Almost all of these challenges are traceable to bad leadership, with poor understanding of the present predicaments and emerging opportunities, as well as cluelessness about the future. Over the years, and even in contemporary times, many leaders have been using state resources to prop themselves up to stay endlessly in offices rather than building lasting institutions for the benefit of the people. Their own understanding of being heroes has been self-perpetuation, which has created legacy crisis as power vacuum has followed the exit of many of them. Many aberrations have been blamed on remote influences of former colonial masters and other powerful Western countries. Many African leaders – past and present – chose to lead rather poorly, thus complicating the crisis within nations and the entire continent. Their failures to address many emerging problems proactively have created complications that are increasingly difficult to tackle as many subsequent leaders prove less competent to occupy the positions of political leadership.
Many political leaders fight needless battles in offices, within ruling parties and among the people, some of which snowball into real trench war. An example was that of President Salva Kiir Mayardit of South Sudan and his sacked first vice president, Dr. Riek Machar Teny, which led the oil-rich South Sudan into an avoidable civil war in 2011, two years after it secured its independence from its northern neighbour – Sudan, as Machar thereafter formed a rebel faction against Kiir’s government. The war resulting from personality clashes between the two personalities claimed an estimated 400,000 lives and ignited a major refugee crisis comparable to the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. To end the war, the country still had to return to where it started, with the reinstatement of Machar as first vice president. Analogous to how Bashar al-Assad had to destroy two thirds of Syria so as to remain in power, many African leaders have done – or are still doing – similar damage to their countries to remain in power, although the scale may be less obvious or more subtle.
Irrespective of whatever sound bites and narratives are being spun from the Ethiopian authorities, the last one year and four months have been a period of cruel attack on many ordinary Ethiopians. It has been a period of economic downturn and restriction of freedom occasioned by armed conflicts. The “law and order” intervention of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed in Ethiopia that was launched in the wake of COVID-19 pandemic has stoked a crisis of legitimacy as it has metamorphosed into one of the most vicious battles of 2021. Under Ahmed’s watch, Ethiopia’s model of ethnic federalism seems speedily crumbling as the man at the helm has obviously lost control of the situation, with countrymen split into warring factions involving Ethiopians within and outside the country. An operation that Ahmed promised was going to be over within weeks when it started in November 2020 has entered its second year, with little sign of abating as there had been reports of air strikes in some areas near internally displaced people’s camps. At the onset, Ahmed did the absurd by bringing in Eritrean forces in to fight his fellow Ethiopians, an arrangement that was later hurriedly terminated. Although Ahmed attempted to give his scorecard on the war he led in Ethiopia at the opening of the 35th Ordinary Session of the AU Assembly last February in Addis Ababa, questions remain about how successful he was in his onslaught that eventually went out of his control, leading to deaths of thousands and displacement of millions, many of which became refugees in nearby Sudan. According Ahmed, “Ethiopia’s challenge was internal in nature and a matter of maintaining law and order. But resolution of our internal matters was made exceedingly difficult by the role played by external actors.”
In an apparent admission of official excesses and recklessness in display of power, he told the AU assembly that, “despite the intransigence of the ether side in this conflict, my government has taken a variety of measures to minimise the loss of life and destruction of property.” Realising his failure to subdue those he was out to crush, he openly said that his government has “implemented unilateral withdrawal from conflict areas and used force that is necessary to ensure law and order.” Although he failed to elucidate on the proportion of the force that is necessary, he added that, as a gesture of goodwill, his government has “released high profile suspects with a view to creating a conducive environment for peace,” promising that “we shall leave no stone unturned in our search for peace in our country.” His comment that, “consistent with our commitment to peaceful resolution of conflict, we have recently launched an inclusive national dialogue platform with formal legislation,” has been roundly dismissed by some who believe it was not to be taken very seriously. His call for a continental media outlet could be taken seriously if there is a clear path on who sets up and maintains such platform to avoid negative outcomes.
The recurring cases of armed attacks at the Ituri province, an area constantly under siege in DR Congo is a cause for alarm and shows the increasing threat to security within the Central African region. This is just one of many such armed groups operations reported within the region. The areas dominated by West African terrorist and insurgent groups are widening, while the Somalia terrorist groups remain unrelenting. The interventions of foreign nations and the United Nations peace keeping forces has not made significant success and there are fears of possible escalations in West Africa with the final withdrawal of French forces in Mali, as this may open a vulnerable flank for the terror groups to expand their operational areas, thus exposing more places to insecurity. The impact of this on the Sahel belt can be far-reaching for social and economic activities as well as safety of human lives.
Africa’s environment has been subjected to varying extents of degradation over the years by the ruthless and unabated exploitation of natural resources, particularly in agriculture and mining. Motr degradation is to be expected in the rush for mineral raw materials to power the renewable green energy wave. To be sure, continued dependence on raw, primary commodities export will not significantly take Africa forward economically and technologically. The extractive industry will continue to create more and more environmental consequences that are inimical to the health and safety of the people as long as they remain unregulated. Agricultural commodities in their unprocessed forms will continue to attract low prices that are inadequate for running local economies in countries dependent on their exports. These will continue to trigger and sustain hostilities between people within the same countries and between contiguous countries. Paradoxically, Africa still imports a large chunk of food items annually spending over $40 billion annually. Africa’s position in the global value chain will have to be enhanced by going beyond primary commodities and embarking more on value addition for greater returns. Phasing out fossil fuels will not happen anytime soon despite all the rush to energy transition. The old, established ways will not be closed too quickly as a lot of investments have gone into them and more funds are still being pumped into exploration and extraction of petroleum and coals in many parts of the world.
Africa’s population is still predominantly youthful, with an implication for potential crisis in the near future if the food and energy needs are not met. The mounting debt crisis is a bad omen for African countries as the growing population is not being commensurately served by prevailing national economies. Africa is crumbling under the weight of rising debts. The repayment of some of such debts is eating deep into annual national budgets and is depriving countries of funds for social development, infrastructure, investment in human capital and industrial growth. The percentage of such revenues going into debt servicing is potentially inimical to Africa’s future economic growth, expansion and resilience. Debt-to-GDP ratio is an indicator of a country’s ability to pay back its debts. Higher debt-to-GDP ratio means less chances of paying back a country’s debt and this raises its risk of default. The implications could entail financial panic in the national and global markets.
The debt-to-GDP ratios of some African countries are alarming. In 2020, Mozambique recorded approximately 128.45 per cent, nearly the same as Zambia at 128.7 per cent. In the same year, Sudan recorded a mind-boggling 262.5 per cent, Togo had 60.28 per cent, Burundi had approximately 66.99 per cent, Ethiopia had 55.43 per cent and Liberia had approximately 54.85 per cent a year earlier. Zimbabwe’s last verifiable figure before COVID-19 outbreak in 2019 was a worrisome 113.92 per cent, while a distressed Somalia recorded 101 per cent in 2018. Some countries having debt-to-GDP ratios below the threshold of 50 per cent in recent times are Ivory Coast at approximately 47.74 per cent in 2020, Cameroon at approximately 45.79 per cent same year, Chad at 47.91 per cent, Niger Republic at 44.97 per cent and Uganda at 44.1 per cent, all in 2020. Some bright spots, however, showed up, giving room for optimism that heavy debt is not altogether a continent-wide problem, although the debt burden of one country could still bog down others considerably.
Rather surprisingly and despite the long-drawn sectarian wars, South Sudan recorded a 31.26 per cent debt to GDP ratio in 2019, just as Guinea Conakry’s debt in 2019 reached 38.37 per cent of GDP same year. The DR Congo recorded approximately a debt of 15.16 per cent of the GDP in 2020 while Nigeria’s was 35 per cent. A point to observe about Africa’s rising debt profile by countries is the grim prospects of difficulties in repayment and the possibilities of yielding critical national assets as collaterals in the event of default. Africa’s debt trap is real, particularly when considered in the context of what is owed and to whom it is owed. For those owed to China, experiences of some earlier borrower countries are good indicators of what to expect. Putting in context and projecting into the future, China will very likely take over critical national assets of many countries in lieu of repayment of debt. Avoiding this is a major challenge that needs to occupy the minds of policy makers, politicians and strategists in Africa.
Weak institutions, particularly legal and judiciary, constitute a major setback for Africa’s development. Many foreign direct investors and multinationals avoid many African countries because of non-adherence to the rule of law, corruption, unstable governments, inconsistent policies, incompetent and excessively bureaucratic civil service and compromised standard operating procedures. The ranking of many African countries in the World Bank’s annual Ease of Doing Business benchmarks and ratings would provide some insights into these shortcomings. It is rather interesting that the predominantly useful population in Africa is not being harnessed into food production as Africa still depends on importation amounting to nearly six per cent of global food imports, considering Africa’s small economy relative to those of some countries in Europe, Asia and Americas. Statistics on the population of Africans involved in farming provide a basis for worry in what can be interpreted as low agricultural productivity within the continent.
Roughly 65 per cent of Africa’s population reportedly relies on subsistence farming, according to some claims. International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) stated that, in Africa, there are an estimated 33 million smallholder farms, and the farmers that live on them contribute up to 70 per cent of the food supply. More disputable is the claim of the World Economic Forum (WEF) that 70 per cent of Africans are dependent on agriculture for livelihoods. These ignore, or probably conflate, the reality of increasing urbanisation in Africa and low productivity, in which –according to Brookings – “as of 2015, 50 per cent of Africa’s population lived in one of 7,617 urban agglomerations.” Majority of the urban dwellers fall within the brackets of the unemployed, the artisans, blue collar and industrial workers, upwardly mobile white collar and executive jobs, politicians, technocrats, academics, engineering, law, accountancy, media, medical, logistics and transportation, security, finance and ICT. Non-farming agricultural jobs are few in urban Africa and the populations of rural farming communities are dwindling fast on annual basis as ageing, deaths, insecurity in the rural countryside, attraction of the city and neglect of rural development, poor rural income and low incomes speed up the diminution of the rural population. Food production will likely be a time bomb for Africa if the paradigm is not radically changed now. The prospects of Africa’s implosion look real. Drastic actions need to be taken to avert it.

This instalment concludes the series on an Africa about to implode.