Africa’s bumpy road to regional economic cooperation (9)

MOROCCO PULLED OUT of the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) in 1984, as it was then known, and remained outside it until January 31, 2017, when it returned to the group, now known as African Union (AU). Morocco’s grouse for withdrawing its OAU membership was in protest against the OAU’s  acceptance of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) as a member state. Following its exit, Morocco was not without any regional affiliation or alliance all through the 33 years outside the African continental body. No doubt, it kept its alliance with the Arab countries intact, which was understandable. For instance, it remained a strong member of the Arab League, an organisation it joined in 1958, alongside Tunisia. Evidently, the Arab countries – spreading across northern Africa and the Middle East – have a lot in common, ranging from shared ethnic, cultural and linguistic identity with the Middle East to the strong Islamic influence in the region. In addition to Morocco, many other countries in North Africa appear to have stronger predilection and affinity for alliance with Arab nations of the Middle East than any other. This could be established from the political configuration that transcends geographic and spatial delineation.

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is now well recognised as a global political and economic bloc. This is significant for a number of reasons. MENA is an acronym referring to a grouping of countries situated in and around the Middle East and North Africa. When viewed more from geographic lenses, the region can be interchangeably referred to as Western Asia or South West Asia. In this case, MENA becomes known as WANA or SWANA. Countries sometimes or usually included in MENA are Algeria, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Oman, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Sudan, Tunisia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates and Yemen.

Generally recognised now are alternative terms coined by some international organisations or governments, referring to the same MENA interchangeably as “greater middle east” and in some cases the “Arab world,” as some countries are either included or excluded depending who is applying what definition. The Middle East, a Eurocentric term coined sometimes during the 19th century, referred to a trans-continental area between North Africa – specifically Egypt – and South-West Asia, a term that has gained currency globally since then and still remains relevant today, although it poses some ambiguity in practice, thus prompting international organisations such as the World Bank, OECD and UNICEF to apply more specific terms such as MENA. The term “Greater Middle East,” coined by the US during the second Bush administration, included other Muslim majority countries such as Iran, Turkey, and Pakistan, while the term MENA typically does not include Turkey, Afghanistan, or Pakistan and is more strictly geographically defined than religiously or socially so.

Of particular interest is the political map of Northern Africa and the Middle East in which Egypt is by some definitions part of the Middle East while, geographically, it is a transcontinental country.  This, on its own, has its social, economic and political significance. Considering the risks posed to the international community by intersecting conflicts across the MENA, the region becomes a cynosure of great significance. A major defining moment came about 13 years ago that has shaped MENA both positively and negatively. Arab Spring, a socio-politically disruptive event in form of a series of anti-government protests, uprisings and armed rebellions that began in Tunisia in December 2010, spreading into five other territories across MENA, specifically Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and Bahrain, lasting till December 2012, has redefined the “Arab world permanently.” It has elicited many wide ranging results, some intended and some unintended consequences. It led to the removal of Tunisian president, Ben Ali; Libya’s Muammar Gaddafi; Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak; and Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen. All these countries are presently living with the aftermath of those events which were characterised also elsewhere by sustained street demonstrations in  Morocco, Iraq, Algeria, Lebanon, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Sudan, Djibouti, Mauritania, Palestine, Saudi Arabia and the Moroccan-occupied Western Sahara.

The Arab Spring which arose in response to some unsatisfactory systems of government has ended up amplifying the same. Tunisia, where the agitations began, is back fully in Arab Winter, a term used for the resurgence of authoritarianism and Islamic extremism in some Arab countries in the 2010s in the aftermath of the Arab Spring. While the Islamic extremism may not strictly apply to Tunisia in this context, it nonetheless applies to many other MENA countries. Some major negative consequences of the Arab Spring could be outlined under demographic structural factors, energy crisis, human rights abuses, unemployment, political corruption, inflation, poverty and civil wars. Some positives can, however, be mentioned, namely: the popularisation of democracy, regime change, growing economic freedom and increasing awareness of human rights. 

Demographics in MENA countries reveal some worrisome truths. One-third of MENA’s population is under the age of 15 and the region’s Muslim population expected to grow by 74 percent from 317 million in 2010 to 552 million in 2050 has already been estimated at around 547 million people in 2020. While food consumption in MENA is rising, the region remains the world’s largest importer of food, especially cereals, sugar and poultry. According to the World Bank, well over 50 percent of MENA’s food and feed consumed are imported, making it the largest food importing region in the world. Conventional logic in human geography was that population density used to be higher in forest areas than in deserts. That was more of historical geography. In MENA, the converse seems more of a truism as the region undergoes high rates of population growth combined with severely constrained water and land resources, thus depending heavily on globalisation and global supply chains in its dependence on imports which is likely to increase  or remain at current levels for the foreseeable future. Although higher food prices could represent an opportunity for net food producers in MENA’s rural areas, poverty is prevalent among the 43 percent  of MENA region’s largely rural population, where the poverty is higher than in urban areas as rural-urban disparities exacerbate migration towards urban areas and other countries. It sounds counterintuitive that one-third of Egypt’s population, by current estimates, lives in poverty despite being recognised as Africa’s second largest economy by turnover and GDP. Egypt is at loggerheads with Ethiopia because of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam upstream that is considered as limiting Egypt’s access to adequate water from the Nile River. NEMA’s arid land covers 62 percent of the region, with vast desert zones such as the Sahara Desert in North Africa, the Arabian Desert in West Asia and the Syrian Desert and less than five percent of arable land in two-thirds of the countries of the region. MENA remains the most water-scarce region of the world.

Putting in proper context,  MENA’s perennial challenge of food insecurity is getting more complicated as over 90 percent of food needs in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are met by other countries. The on-going Russian invasion of Ukraine is having significant negative impacts on the MENA region’s food insecurity. Egypt, where bread is one of the major staple foods, imports 80 percent of wheat from Russia and Ukraine. The reduction in supply was triggered by a surge in controls on food export across the globe, leading to skyrocketing prices that make wheat products unaffordable for Egyptian consumers.

The turmoil in the MENA region is destroying lives and infrastructure. Smouldering embers of armed violence in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen are costing those countries a lot in terms of losses as people are killed, maimed and displaced, fleeing into fragile or economically strapped countries such as Jordan, Lebanon, Djibouti and Tunisia, accounting for the biggest refugee crisis since World War II. Migrations have taken a new turn in the MENA region between 2015 and 2020 with the number of Africans living in different regions growing from around 17 million in 2015 to over 19.5 million in 2020 with many of the migrants heading towards MENA countries. In the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, according to reports, migrants make up high proportions of the total national populations. In 2020, migrants reportedly accounted for 88 percent of the population in the UAE, about 73 percent in Kuwait, 77 percent in Qatar and 55 percent in Bahrain, many of which came from Africa, South Asia, and South-East Asia.

It is now clear that, a decade after the Arab Spring, the member countries of MENA are in even worse shape in certain situations even when they have achieved some positive outcomes such as falling child mortality, important advances in health, education, and income. Now, there are greater inequalities in human development regionally, within each country and for specific demographic groups, most importantly for youth and women with 57.6 million people in need of humanitarian assistance. The impacts of the region’s conflicts on civilians’ lives and fundamental rights have been largely negative with human rights violations. In Syria alone, more than 250,000 people have been reportedly killed, as tens of thousands died in Yemen, over 32,000 casualties recorded in Iraq and more than 20,000 civilians have suffered from violence by armed groups. Millions of people in the MENA region are in need of immediate, life saving assistance to ensure their basic survival, especially where conflict has constrained food supplies.

The World Economic Forum reckons that advancing geopolitical dialogue is critical to a sustainable and resilient MENA region, just as the Middle East is trying to chart its own path in the context of global geopolitical shifts. African countries within MENA, therefore, have to recognise peculiar needs as well and work hard towards meeting them. A troubled MENA means a troubled Africa. The progress or retrogression of MENA will take a direct toll on sub-Saharan Africa. While other regional economic blocs in sub-Saharan Africa are trying to sort out their own challenges, the northern African countries should not be abandoned simply because of their overt affiliation with MENA. It is a seamless world economy, with MENA intricately tied to Africa in many more ways than are recognised by most. A holistic approach to regional alliances will help overcome the current crises and safeguard the regions through mutual support. Now, MENA member countries should realise how much they need Africa just as Africa needs them. Failure to collaborate will continue to cost MENA and other African countries dearly.