When does Africa’s security really count?

Munich Security Conference in Munich, Germany, and the 36th Ordinary Session of the Summit of Heads of State and Government of the African Union (AU) at AU headquarters in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, got underway at the weekend. Common to those two disparate meetings were security issues. While the Munich  meeting considered the invasion of Ukraine by Russia as one of its top priorities for discussion, the AU summit raised the issues of insecurity in Libya, M23 incursion into the DR Congo and political tensions in Tunisia. In essence, Munich was looking at Europe while the AU was concerned about Africa. But while security was projected as one at the heart of their respective meetings, a few lapses nonetheless became apparent should the core issue at the two meetings be juxtaposed. In addition to security, the AU also considered trade as another major issue that topped their chart. For a continent that is pummelled by persistent instability  from various parts, and from outside, the AU needed more than a monolithic attendance. Although a mild drama erupted over the Israeli observers that were escorted out of the AU meeting, the underlying assumption for the action against the Israeli could turn out to become a double-edged sword, cutting both ways. South Africa was alleged to have led the opposition to Israel’s observer status based on the latter’s dispositions towards Palestine.

Munich, for its seemingly global outlook, did not seem to have a space for regional Africa as DR Congo seems to be getting the attention of the convening AU, but not of the Munich Security Conference. Africa remains a traumatised continent in which some hostilities are becoming entrenched and perennial, the International Crisis Group urged the regional powers, such as Kenya to drive diplomacy in DR Congo as fighting became intensified in North Kivu, near the eastern border, where the M23 rebels partially encircled the major city Goma. According to the International Crisis Group, “regional leaders, particularly Kenya, should press hard for a halt to the insurgent advances and urge Kinshasa and Kigali to reduce tensions.” Although the M23 rebels agreed early last December to withdraw from DRC in response to the pressure that the US exerted on Rwanda, it appears like no withdrawal yet as DR Congo’s President Félix Tshisekedi lamented recently, during the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, that the M23 rebel group has not fully withdrawn from areas seized in the country’s east, but rather are allegedly faking an agreed pullback of its forces.

Only recently was a rather tenuous truce brokered between Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Force (TPLF) in a war started by Abiy Ahmed on a wrong presumption that — like Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — the exercise would have been over in a matter of days. Commencing on November 3 in 2020, Abiy Ahmed’s lasted nearly two full years before he could backtrack after the loss of men, money, military hardware and precious opportunities to build on years of steady economic growth that placed Ethiopia ahead of all other countries of Africa. In the end, Ahmed couldn’t claim victory over the Tigray fighters, although their people suffered serious humanitarian crises all through the period of the war. Despite the truce, the two years of war has undoubtedly sown the seed of regional insecurity as illicit ammunition trade would flood the post-war Ethiopia as well as neighbouring countries. At the weekend the same Abiy Ahmed was heard admonishing Africans to solve their problems in their own ways. It remains unclear whether a reference to his handling of war with Trigray was a benchmark he was pointing at.

Africa now, obviously, has to face and fight its own battles and face its woes alone. This was the same Africa that hosted conferences of global significance years ago. The famous Lomé Convention happened to have been held in West Africa as a trade and aid agreement between the European Economic Community (EEC) and 71 African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries, when it was first signed in February 1975 in Lomé, the political headquarters of Togo. The document emanating from there was intended to serve as the vehicle for an examination of North-South bargaining and was to contain innovative and ground-breaking moves toward more equitable trade and aid relations. For its inadequacies and technical flaws, perhaps, it was replaced by the Cotonou Agreement in 2000 when the World Trade Organisation (WTO) ruled it anti-competitive.

Put in the right statistical context, Africa has probably lost more to insecurity within a year than is generally acknowledged. The deaths from wars in Libya, killings in South Sudan or Goma in DRC and the homicides in South Africa are in war proportions. In Libya, the current humanitarian crisis and political-military instability began with the Arab Spring protests of 2011. These precipitated the ensuing civil war, foreign military intervention, and the eventual death of Muammar Gaddafi. The country’s protracted crisis means it is now trapped in cycles of violence and political instability, which has consumed thousands of Libyans. Although the damage inflicted by Libya’s twelve-year war on civilians is “incalculable,” according to a UN official, estimated casualties of nearly 900,000 people may have been too high as some sources believe that the true figures may have been lower. Efforts to rebuild state institutions since the end of Gaddafi in October 2011 have remained unsuccessful as two rival administrations lay claims to the national government. It remains doubtful if the early 2021 agreement on terms for a national unity government between rival politicians is truly heeded as two rival administrations operate two rival militaries from Tripoli and Tobruk. Last November, eastern strongman and commander Khalifa Haftar threatened violence, thus further heating up the polity and escalating the festering political stalemate as political solution seems ineffectual with the refusal of incumbent Prime Minister, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, to step down and as his eastern rival Fathi Bashagha, appointed Prime Minister, has been making efforts to bulldoze his way and establish his presence in Tripoli. In the DR Congo, the activities of M23 have gained infamy for their involvement in murders, rapes, kidnappings and looting.

The Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have been accused of atrocities, causing deaths and displacements of Congolese in hundreds. If crises in the aforementioned countries were considered intolerable, the nature of insecurity in South Africa appears more unsettling as gun violence poses a serious threat to lives and livelihoods in a country where civilians with firearms roam freely in the presence of compromised police officers. A recently released report indicated a record 3,144 gun murders in three months, comparatively higher than war casualties in DR Congo or Libya within the same time span. According to South Africa’s Police Minister, Bheki Cele, 3,144 people were murdered with guns in the final three months of 2022, and this was mostly from illegal firearms and was just a fraction of the 7,555 people murdered in South Africa within those  three months.

A determined military officer in Sudan has taken hold of the country with iron hands. Since assuming office, he has steadily gained influence and consolidated power over the country by his unbending style that got rid of a hybrid arrangement in which the civilian co-leader in power had to resign and opt out of government amidst sustained demonstrations. He has also met those demonstrators with a deadly crackdown where Sudanese military authorities have met the protests with a deadly crackdown, which has so far killed 113 people, including 18 children. With nearly annual recurrence of climate and weather events, Sudan is now in the throes of a food crisis, which may further combine with government’s crackdown to further worsen the country’s economy. The result of this is more anger, violence and extreme cases of social disruption and armed conflicts. With the belligerence of the military in governance, Sudan remains in the blacklist of many countries and philanthropic organisations. There is no convincing evidence that the military will soon give way to democratic rule in Sudan, and that does not bode well for that country.

In Tunisia, a politician, jurist, and retired law professor currently serving as the democratically elected president, is tipping the country towards a political cliff edge. Professor Kais Saied who became Tunisia’s president in October 2019, had barely settled down when he unleashed self-coup on the nation by suspending the parliament and sacking the prime minister. Dissolving the Assembly of the Representatives of the People in July 2021 was meant to pave the way for a consolidation of power as he began to rule by decrees in a political experiment that threatened economic collapse and popular uprising. Up till last weekend, Tunisians were on the streets, protesting against the unpopular and undemocratic system of rule by Saied. In time, the demonstrations could turn violent and lead to human casualties.

Tunisia, a country experiencing its worst economic crisis, could implode anytime soon and President Kais Saied may soon find out that the Syria scenario could play up under his rule, in which case Tunisia becomes a liability and terrorist hotspot as various operators of nefarious activities would converge to turn a lawless country into an operational base that would further threaten the security of the entire Africa. Are these really nothing to security watchers who take a lot of time examining Europe’s, North America’s or Asia’s security? What space is reserved at the Munich Security Conference for Africa on all these scores?

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