Boeing forecasts 1.5m new flight crew requirement globally by 2042

A report by Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for the year 2023 has suggested that passenger traffic has nearly returned to pre-pandemic levels and that most domestic markets have fully recovered from the disruption that came in the wake of the pandemic, per monitored report on Simple Flying. 

The CMO also disclosed that individual countries and aviation jurisdictions have come a long way in resuming domestic flights to 2019 levels while international traffic is on the road to recovery and is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2024.

With new airlines and better accessibility of air travel, the aviation industry is going to grow significantly in the next two decades. As such, the current size of the global fleet will double to over 48,500 by 2042. Catering to the demand, the adequate supply and training of personnel, particularly flight crew and maintenance technicians, remain critical for the forecasted growth of the aviation industry.

Simply Flying reports that flight crews (both pilots and cabin crew) play an important role in the growth and prosperity of the aviation ecosystem and that according to the latest CMO, the demand for training and related services has shown signs of faster recovery. More and more training organisations and institutions are keen to make resources available for pilots and cabin crew. However, the adequate supply of support personnel remains a lingering challenge in aviation.

The CMO suggests the establishment of long-term strategies to address the challenges related to labour shortages. The aviation industry drivers, including the regulatory authorities and large airline groups, must invest in early career-development programs to excite and recruit future aviators.

Demand for qualified aviation personnel

An industry-wide effort toward the sourcing of personnel is essential for the prosperity of the aviation market. The recruitment and training of pilots, cabin crew, and aircraft maintenance technicians are critical to the forecasted growth. Boeing’s Pilot and Technician Outlook (PTO) particularly estimates the number of new pilots, cabin crew members, and aircraft maintenance technicians needed for worldwide traffic demand. 

According to Boeing, “Long-term demand for newly qualified aviation personnel remains strong, as 649,000 new pilots, 690,000 new maintenance technicians, and 938,000 new cabin crew members will be needed to fly and maintain the global commercial fleet over the next 20 years.”

The demand for new personnel is calculated based on the 20-year fleet forecast of commercial aircraft of more than 30 seats. This also includes small regional aircraft and commercial freighter aircraft. The forecast is based on the need for fleet replacement, aircraft operations, and maintenance for safe operations. It is noteworthy that Boeing’s outlook does not include forecasted demand in single-pilot commercial aircraft, business aviation, and civil helicopters.

Variations to the forecast are expected with time due to several reasons, including possible changes in regulations, crew productivity, aircraft production, and other unforeseen events that may occur. Notably, the emergence of alternative modes of travel, such as advanced air mobility systems (urban and regional) and high-speed rail, may impact demand in the commercial aviation market.

Nonetheless, industry experts are eyeing a significant increase in both aircraft and aviation personnel in the next twenty years.