World Bank warns of worsening insecurity and economic hardship in 7 Nigerian states

Persistent insecurity, armed conflict, and deteriorating livelihoods in the Nigerian states of Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, and Zamfara, as well as the far north of Adamawa State, are likely to continue until May 2024. This is as poor macroeconomic conditions are hampering access to agricultural inputs in Nigeria, which is expected to negatively impact cereal production.

These findings were outlined in the World Bank’s latest Food Security Update, which highlighted the ongoing food security crisis in Nigeria and its impact on the country’s agricultural sector. 

According to the World Bank, cereal production in West and Central Africa for the 2023/24 crop year is estimated at 76.5 million tons, a two per cent decline from the previous season but a three per cent increase from the average of the last five years. Chad, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria are expected to be the main contributors to the overall decline in cereal production

The Bretton Woods institution stated that in addition to unfavourable weather conditions and limited access to agricultural land, insecurity in Chad, Mali, and Niger, and poor macroeconomic conditions in Nigeria, have also contributed to the decrease in cereal production. In Nigeria, specifically, the economic conditions have impacted farmers’ ability to access and afford the inputs they need to produce cereal crops, such as fertiliser and seeds.

The decline in cereal production is likely to have a negative impact on food security in the region, particularly in Chad, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria, where food insecurity is already a major concern.

While overall, most of the sub-region’s areas will remain in the minimally food insecure (category from November to May 2024, some areas are classified as stressed and some in crisis.

“Over the same period (November to May 2024), Crisis (IPC Phase 3) conditions, mainly caused by persistent insecurity and armed conflict, and deteriorating livelihoods, are projected to affect the following regions:

“Nigeria: Local government areas in Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara states, and the far north of Adamawa state,” the World Bank stated. 

The report also noted that  Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Mali, and Niger are  other places this will affect, adding that high inflation has been a major concern for many low- and middle-income countries, as it has been driven by rising global food and energy prices, as well as currency depreciations.

According to the World Bank, the latest data on food price inflation shows that many low- and middle-income countries are experiencing high inflation, with more than half of countries in each category having inflation rates above 5 per cent. In low-income countries, 61.9 per cent of countries have inflation rates above 5 per cent, while in lower-middle-income countries, 76.1 per cent of countries have inflation rates above 5 per cent. In upper-middle-income countries, 50.0 per cent of countries have inflation rates above 5 per cent, and in high-income countries, 57.4 per cent of countries have inflation rates above 5 per cent.

The World Bank noted that the countries most affected by high food price inflation are those in Africa, North America, Latin America, South Asia, Europe, and Central Asia, with food price inflation exceeding  overall inflation by 74 per cent in 167 countries.