YOMI MAKANJUOLA, PhD
Yomi Makanjuola earned a doctorate in Materials Engineering and Design and worked primarily as an Associate Partner at Accenture in Nigeria. Currently, he is an author and freelance consultant in the UK. His most recent book titled “Nigeria Like A Rolling Stone” is available on the Amazon platform (https:amzn.eu/d/8STPZ0n). He can be reached at 9yoma9@gmail.com”
Economic forecasts are implicitly impaired by the churn of miscellaneous knowns and unknowns. Similarly, divining the future of work is fraught with caveats induced by relentless technological change. To avert peripheral whiplash, the perspective on developing countries is therefore cordoned off from the outlook for advanced economies. Whereas history most definitely facilitated the delineation between economic stalwarts and deadbeats, change ensures that nothing is permanent.
Conveniently, the world of work espouses archetypes like farm worker, factory worker and knowledge worker, which have served as useful nomenclature in the labour market. Chronologically, the primordial prevalence of unskilled labourers was superseded by human-machine amalgams for industrial production. More recently, the post-industrial or information age has amplified human cognition for value creation. Reflecting a nation’s developmental progress, productivity growth and value-adding jobs often dovetail.
Far and away the biggest surge recorded during the industrial age occurred when China mobilised hundreds of millions of factory workers to achieve an unparalleled economic miracle. Following Chairman Mao Zedong’s demise in 1976, China performed ideological jujitsu during the stewardship of Deng Xiaoping, by embracing the paradoxical socialist market economic doctrine. In the wake of its meteoric rise, China is now ranked as an upper-middle-income nation.
As average Chinese wages grew, lower-value and mid-range manufacturing gradually migrated to countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh. Unfortunately, inadequate investments in infrastructure and skills development precluded sub-Saharan Africa from benefitting at scale. Furthermore, lagging countries like Nigeria failed to capitalise on offshoring and outsourcing opportunities provided by the West.
Before addressing future job prospects in the developing world, a succinct analysis of mature economies will serve as a useful backdrop. As the fourth industrial revolution unfolds, there are experts who predict that the impact of artificial intelligence (AI), robotics, and emergent technologies on job markets will diverge markedly from previous eras. With mounting anxieties about net job losses to smart machines, it is no longer clear whether the dog will continue to wag the tail, or the opposite.
Last year, the technology and interplanetary visionary Elon Musk sparked a public debate after attending a London conference on AI regulations. Considering that domains like computer programming and surgical procedures are not entirely AI-resistant, Musk contemplates a future where “no job is needed… you can do a job if you want a job, but the AI will do everything.”
Expectedly, talking heads jumped on his words and reminded everyone that previous predictions about disappearing jobs had misfired. Perhaps a more nuanced prognosis is that robots will perform most industrial tasks, while automation hollows out routine and mid-level jobs, such as bookkeeping, paralegal duties, and clerical work. Yet, unanticipated new jobs could emerge, although there are no guarantees.
Research findings in the West have identified solid trends at the high end of the job market, where net gains are predicted. Some of these well-paying roles will benefit data analysts, machine learning specialists, blockchain developers, fintech engineers, cybersecurity analysts, and renewable energy engineers. Lower in the pecking order are care and well-being workers, chefs and cooks, including construction labourers; essentially, jobs that are not easily automatable. In sharp contrast, delivery drivers might be replaced by self-driving vehicles and drones.
At the other extreme, declining opportunities loom for accountants, auditors, assembly workers, executive assistants, administrative secretaries, human resources personnel, data entry workers, office clerks, bank tellers, credit and loan officers, and cashiers. Incredibly, Western agriculture might shed more manpower from an already low base of 1-4 percent of the labour force. It is still unclear how AI will transform sectors as varied as education, the film industry, architecture, transportation, and the military.
In anticipation of what the future may portend, pilot programmes centred on universal basic income (UBI) schemes are being explored. Although UBI is not a new idea, bureaucrats are focusing attention on this socioeconomic experiment. Loosely defined, the UBI is a form of cash transfer constituting a living wage that, purportedly, covers basic needs. It is “universal” because all citizens are eligible, irrespective of their economic status. Presumably, there are no restrictions on how recipients spend the money. So far, the jury is still out on the UBI scheme as a panacea for unemployment.
If by any chance Elon Musk’s stark prediction prevails, would this represent utopia or dystopia? Human beings thrive on the esteem accorded through the inherent dignity of work. Therefore, more leisure time and sedentary lifestyles bankrolled by UBI-type schemes could unleash unintended consequences beyond our wildest imagination. Since hardly any good deed goes unpunished, does the world really deserve a continuing deluge of improvisational podcasters, insufferable influencers, cyber-groupies, and avant-garde “creatives”?
In recent times, immigration from indigent, less-industrialised countries to the U.S., Europe and sundry destinations intensified after the 2008 global financial crisis, the Arab Spring uprisings, and the coronavirus pandemic. If unchecked, adverse climate change could exacerbate the North-South divide, thereby incentivising uncontrolled migration from vulnerable to affluent countries. A future article will assess how developing nations might respond to labour market volatility this century.
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