The rise and fall of Airbus A380 (2) 

The Airbus A380 has had a fascinating history since its launch in 2005. With a higher capacity than any other aircraft, it offered new opportunities for many airlines. There have been operating and cost challenges, though, which have led to concerns and retirements. The pandemic nearly saw the end for the type, but it has re-entered service extensively since. In this second and concluding part of a culled analysis, Simple Flying explores the aircraft’s challenges and potential further usefulness.

Why has the A380 lost popularity?

What then went wrong with the A380? Several factors combined to hurt the A380 – both with initial take-up and decline in popularity since.

Improvement in twin engines. A major factor in the decline of the A380 has been the improvement in twin-engine aircraft. Of course, this has affected the A340 and the Boeing 747 as well. At the time of its design, four engines were still an advantage for long-haul over-water flights. ETOPS has changed this, with twins now able to fly much further from diversion airports, opening up more routes. This started with 120 minutes for the Boeing 767, rising to 180 minutes for the 777, and the A350 now has a rating of 370 minutes.

Move away from hub-based operations

The A380 was designed for hub and spoke operations. Airbus bet big on this working, but there has been more of a shift in preference to point-to-point operations. And with this, a lower-capacity aircraft makes more sense. US airlines are a good example of this – no US airline ordered the A380. China, to a certain extent, has gone the same way. Only China Southern has found a role for the A380 (operating it on busy routes to Los Angeles and domestically from Beijing to Guangzhou).

Limitations in operation. The aircraft is placed in the highest size category, and as such, there are many airports where it cannot operate. This was a major consideration in Boeing’s development of the 777X. It has folding wingtips to ensure it is categorised lower than the A380 and can access more airports.

Failure of the freighter version. The failure of the freighter version was potentially a big setback for the A380. Boeing dominates the freighter market, and the A380 could have worked well for Airbus. The freighter received 27 orders but was never developed. Programme delays caused a switch in priority to the passenger version. There were also technical issues with its loading.

Slowdown and retirements from 2020

The past few years have been very significant for the A380. Production ended in 2021 with Emirates’ last aircraft being delivered. Retirements have already begun. Singapore Airlines was the first to retire aircraft in 2017. Emirates retired its first aircraft in October 2020 (it was planned before the 2020 slowdown).

The pandemic was a tough time for all aircraft – but worst for the largest ones. There were significant retirements at this time (as there was for the Boeing 747 too).

• Air France retired the whole A380 fleet in 2020.

• Malaysia Airlines retired its aircraft by the end of 2022.

• China South announced full retirement in November 2023 (but it had not operated the aircraft commercially for a year before that).

Many airlines grounded fleets during the pandemic, and for some time, its future was quite uncertain. Flights dropped to almost nothing at the height of the shutdowns, although there were some attempts to keep aircraft flying in freight use.

Since the pandemic, the type has come well back into service. Lufthansa made the decision in late 2022 to reactivate its stored A380 fleet. As with Emirates’ large-scale return of the type and plans to keep it much longer, this was partly motivated by delays with new aircraft.

The A380 today and going forward

In 2024, ten airlines are still operating the A380 (based on current data from ch-aviation):

• All Nippon Airways (ANA) has three

• Asiana has six (five active and one inactive)

• British Airways has 12 (nine active and three inactive)

• Emirates has 119 (90 active and 29 inactive)

• Etihad Airways 10 (four active and six inactive)

• Korean Air has 10 (four active and six inactive)

• Lufthansa has 8 (four active and four inactive)

• Qatar Airways has 10 (six active and four inactive)

• Qantas has 10 (six active and four inactive)

• Singapore Airlines has 13 (10 active and three inactive)

We will likely still see it in service for some time to come. Many aircraft remain young, and many operators are seeing the benefits again of a large widebody. Emirates has already confirmed that it expects the A380 to remain in service until the 2040s. It has new aircraft on order (the 777X as well as the Boeing 787 and Airbus A350).

There have been retirements, though, and these will continue. With many aircraft coming out of service well before the end of their service life, potential future use is key. Secondhand aircraft available for a good price may be tempting. We are yet to see any current – or new – major operators switch the type in, but there are other uses:

Second-hand airline use. This has happened but has been very limited to date. With a potentially low price for used aircraft, the appeal is clear. The Malta-based charter airline purchased one A380 in 2018. This has seen many different uses, including charter by low-cost airline Norwegian and relief flights during the coronavirus pandemic. At one point, the airline intended to take a second A380, but this did not work out. The one aircraft was retired in 2020.

The next attempt comes from UK startup Global Airlines. So far, it plans to operate four A380s, with routes and other plans not yet announced. It registered its first aircraft (an ex-China Southern A380) in early 2024, and plans to work with Hi Fly to operate initially.

Cargo conversion. As the freighter version’s failure showed, the A380 airframe has limitations for freight use. But it remains a high-capacity aircraft, and this is possible. We have seen this done by Hi Fly in 2020, and it could be an option for another operator.

Conversion for private use. While it would be amazing to see a private A380 and all the features it could offer, this has not happened to date. There was reportedly one ordered, but it never led to development (plans included a car garage, Turkish bath, concert hall with stage and grand piano, and several conference rooms).

It is unlikely that it will happen – but you never know. In general, the aircraft is just too big. The largest twin-engine aircraft already offer plenty of space for private users, and at a more appealing operating cost. The same challenges of high cost and limited airport operations that have hampered commercial use would also affect private use.