Analysts worry over outcomes of #EndBadGovernance protests

• Economy put on edge

• ₦trillion losses if protests become violent

ONOME AMUGE IN LAGOS

The rumblings of protest have begun to reverberate across Nigeria, as civil society groups and disaffected citizens unite under the banner of #EndBadGovernance to decry the economic struggles faced by the populace. But as the movement gathers momentum, with plans to begin protests on August 1, a deepening unease grips the nation, fearful of a repeat of the EndSARS debacle of 2020.

These concerns arise from the harrowing experience of the #EndSARS protests, which resulted in widespread destruction of public infrastructure, loss of lives, and a steep decline in economic activity, estimated at N1.5 trillion, approximately 1.03 percent of the GDP and 11.47 percent of the 2021 budget, according to a report by Financial Derivatives Company Limited.

Facing the imminent threat of mass protests and potential civil unrest, President Bola Tinubu has launched a proactive campaign, engaging in a series of high-level meetings with a diverse range of influential figures across Nigeria. Harnessing the support of the Nigeria Governors’ Forum, the Progressives Governors’ Forum, traditional rulers, among other influential figures, the president is engaged in a concerted effort to discourage the #EndBadGovernance organisers from pursuing their planned demonstrations.

Beyond the strategic meetings, President Bola Tinubu’s response to the threat of impending protests reflects a deep-seated fear of the potential consequences, as he races from pillar to post, initiating multiple engagements with youth leaders, civil society organisations, and other pivotal stakeholders.

With the federal government rushing to stem the tide of what it perceives as a potentially explosive protest, the #EndBadGovernance demonstration is rapidly intensifying, with various stakeholders drawing attention to the potential ramifications of such a protest and the long-lasting repercussions it could have on the nation.

The impending protest, which is brewing from multiple directions, has sparked grave concerns among those who foresee the risks of violence and civil disorder, and who worry about the long-lasting consequences for the country as a whole.

As the nation stands on the precipice of potential unrest, experts within the maritime industry have sounded the alarm bells, anticipating crippling losses for Nigerian ports that could surpass N14.2 billion should the anticipated protests come to fruition. Stakeholders within the sector have cautioned that the ensuing disruption to maritime activity could unleash a financial tsunami, with importers bearing the brunt of exorbitant demurrage fees, and exports grinding to a halt as vessels are marooned at the anchorage, cut off from access to the ports.

Frank Ogunojemite, president of the Africa Association of Professional Freight Forwarders and Logistics of Nigeria (APFFLON), has expressed his concerns about the possibility of nationwide protests. He warned that if the protests are not properly managed, it could lead to chaos and lawlessness, looting, and destruction of public properties and infrastructure.

“The estimates are rough and based on general assumptions. Actual losses could be higher or lower, depending on the specifics of the situation,” he said.

Chijioke Ekechukwu, chief executive officer, Dignity Finance & Investment Ltd, also voiced his concerns about the potential economic fallout of the looming demonstrations on the nation’s economy. 

Drawing from past events, Ekechukwu observed that protests, despite often commencing with peaceful intentions, have a tendency to escalate into violence and disruption. The  former director general of  the Abuja Chamber of Commerce and Industry (ACCI) recalled that similar events in the past have caused widespread economic damage, including forced business closures, job losses, and significant financial setbacks for business owners.

Adding to the potential economic devastation, there are concerns the manufacturing sector may face its own crisis. A Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) analyst, speaking anonymously, estimates that if the nationwide protest proceeds, Nigeria’s economy could potentially suffer losses amounting to an estimated N1 trillion.

The devastating losses, he explained, could be incurred as a result of the three principal spending units, including individuals, firms, and the government, being compelled to close down their operations due to the protest.

As tensions rise and the nation holds its breath in anticipation of what is to come, the expert harbours a fervent hope for a resolution that will avert the devastating impact of potential protests on the economy. 

With businesses already on the brink due to a myriad of other challenges, he expressed worry that any disruption to their operations could prove catastrophic, resulting in billions of naira in losses.

In this precarious situation, the analyst stressed the urgency of finding a way to prevent the situation from escalating further, lest it become the final nail in the coffin for numerous businesses across the country who are already fighting for survival amidst the economic challenges. 

Sensing a potential attempt by telecom companies to thwart the upcoming protest, human rights lawyer Ebun-Olu Adegboruwa has pointed to evidence that certain telecom companies have been disconnecting their subscribers for seemingly trivial or dubious reasons.

In response, Adegboruwa has urged the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) to launch an inquiry into these allegations of subscriber disconnections, highlighting the potentially damaging implications for the upcoming protest against economic hardship in Nigeria, which he fears could be undermined by such actions.

The senior lawyer stated, “For the past few days, some telecom companies have been disconnecting their subscribers for flimsy and untenable reasons. Some allege lack of NIN registration or linking while some didn’t give any reason at all,” Adegboruwa said.

“This action is coming on the heels of the proposed struggle of the people against hunger, poverty, suffering and the suffocating economic policies of the Tinubu administration.

“From all indications, it would seem that the underlying target of the telecom companies is to limit the reach of their customers in order to restrict access and thus frustrate the protests,” he pointed out.

Adegboruwa cautioned that telcos must not attempt to subvert the nationwide protest against economic hardship in Nigeria, by restricting internet access among citizens who are planning to participate in the protest.

Adegboruwa stressed the inviolability of the contractual agreement between telecom companies and their subscribers. He asserted that the rights of subscribers should not be breached or impinged upon without due cause or adequate notification.

Highlighting the potentially devastating consequences of such actions for people’s businesses, medical emergencies, and other vital communications, the senior lawyer implored the NCC to swiftly intervene in this matter and safeguard the interests of subscribers.

Salifu Arome, chief executive officer, Africa Youth Growth Foundation (AYGF), a non governmental organisation set up with the sole purpose of contributing to positive change in the economic and social status of Africans, echoed the sentiments of economists, highlighting the exorbitant financial repercussions that the protests could have for the government.

Arome advocated that the government should regard the planned protests as a valuable opportunity to gauge the public’s perception of their governance, interpreting the unrest as a powerful feedback mechanism.

The AYGF CEO noted that citizens have the right to peacefully voice their grievances, provided that these demonstrations occur in accordance with the law. He thus encouraged the government to engage in constructive dialogue with the citizens, aiming to address their concerns and promote peaceful coexistence in the country.