Onome Amuge
Nigeria must urgently break free from its entrenched cycle of underdevelopment and embark on a radical transformation to emerge as a leading global economy by 2050, according to Akinwumi Adesina, president of the African Development Bank (AfDB).
Adesina, in a keynote address titled “Reimagining Nigeria by 2050,” delivered recently at the 20th Anniversary Dinner of Chapel Hill Denham, outlined a five-pillar strategy to achieve this ambitious goal.
Drawing on his extensive engagement with African leaders, the AfDB president underscored the continent’s collective aspiration for Nigeria to fulfil its economic potential.
“As one Head of State told me ‘the day Nigeria develops, it will lift all of Africa with it,’” he stated.
Adesina bemoaned the fact that despite its abundant resources, the nation bears the unenviable title of having the world’s largest population living in extreme poverty, with a GDP per capita languishing at $1,596, placing it near the bottom of the African league table. He also highlighted a long-term decline in Nigeria’s per capita wealth since independence, plummeting to $824 in 2024 from $1,847 in 1960.
The AfDB president attributed this protracted underperformance to many factors including; the absence of bold and consistent economic policies, the politicisation of growth initiatives leading to frequent reversals, weak economic governance and fiscal discipline, the subordination of institutions to rent-seeking elites, a disconnect between macroeconomic objectives and fiscal measures, an over-reliance on the volatile crude oil sector, woeful infrastructure deficits, a stunted manufacturing base, persistent currency devaluation eroding purchasing power, and the debilitating combination of high inflation, low growth, and high unemployment (stagflation).
To illustrate the scale of Nigeria’s untapped potential, Adesina drew a comparison with South Korea. In 1960, Seoul’s GDP per capita was 10 per cent of Nigeria’s at independence. By 2024, South Korea’s economic miracle had propelled its per capita income to $36,132, 43 times that of Nigeria’s $842. He further pointed to South Korea’s success in cultivating a deep pool of domestic savings, evidenced by its $830 billion pension fund, a contrast to Nigeria’s $13 billion.
“Nigeria belongs in the developed league of nations,” Adesina asserted, stressing that achieving this within the next quarter-century must be the nation’s paramount objective, demanding a fundamental change of mindset to actively pursue wealth-creating growth.
Based on this, the AfDB president’s blueprint for a reimagined Nigeria by 2050 hinges on five critical and interconnected priorities:
Powering transformation: Universal access to reliable and affordable electricity is non-negotiable, Adesina argued. This, he explained, requires attracting substantial private sector investment in the energy sector through cost-reflective tariffs, transparent power purchase agreements, and blended finance initiatives. He urged Nigeria to actively participate in the AfDB and World Bank’s Mission 300 to accelerate electrification efforts.
Building the foundations of growth: According to Adesina, investing in world-class infrastructure spanning transportation networks, digital connectivity, and essential social infrastructure is crucial for attracting investment, enhancing competitiveness within the African Continental Free Trade Area, and unlocking economic potential. Therefore, he called for the strategic deployment of pension and sovereign wealth funds into infrastructure as an asset class, alongside innovative financing mechanisms and the deepening of local capital markets.
Igniting industrialisation: Adesina stated that Nigeria must urgently pivot towards building a strong and competitive industrial manufacturing sector, mirroring the success of Asian powerhouses like South Korea, Malaysia, and Vietnam. He highlighted the glaring disparity in manufacturing export value per capita, with Nigeria lagging far behind its Asian counterparts. He lamented Nigeria’s historical failure to capitalise on early momentum in sectors like vehicle assembly and stressed the imperative of developing a local steel industry as a cornerstone of industrial growth.
Cultivating innovation and human capital: Adesina also stated that fostering a science and innovation-driven economy requires significant investment in research and development, nurturing a skilled workforce in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), and strategically engaging the Nigerian diaspora. According to him, reversing the ongoing brain drain is essential to building a knowledge-based economy capable of thriving in the era of artificial intelligence and the fourth industrial revolution.
Harvesting agricultural potential: Adesina asserted that transforming Nigeria into a globally competitive agricultural powerhouse is vital for economic diversification and boosting exports. To this end, he championed the development of Special Agro-industrial Processing Zones (SAPZs) to attract private sector investment in food processing and agribusiness, creating competitive value chains and enabling Nigeria to effectively compete in global food markets.
Adesina concluded his address with a call for a purposeful and ambitious reimagining of Nigeria. “The Nigeria of 2050 must be purposefully designed. We must reimagine that transformed Nigeria. Reimagine a Nigeria that has freed itself from decades of underperformance,” he stated.
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