Joy Agwunobi
Artificial intelligence (AI) has the potential to reshape the global economy by driving down trade costs, raising productivity, and expanding output, but uneven access to digital technologies risks widening inequality, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) has cautioned.
The warning is contained in the WTO’s 2025 World Trade Report, which projects that global cross-border trade could rise by 34–37 percent by 2040, depending on the degree of policy action and technological catch-up between low-, middle-, and high-income economies. Under more ambitious scenarios, the increase could approach 40 percent. Global gross domestic product (GDP), meanwhile, could expand by 12–13 percent across the different models.
According to the WTO, trade itself could become a powerful enabler of inclusive AI-supported growth by ensuring wider access to AI-enabling goods such as raw materials, semiconductors, and intermediate inputs. In 2023 alone, global trade in such goods was valued at $2.3 trillion.
Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, WTO director-general, while commenting on the findings, stressed that AI’s promise cannot be realised without deliberate efforts to close digital gaps.
“AI has vast potential to lower trade costs and boost productivity. However, access to AI technologies and the capacity to participate in digital trade remains highly uneven,” she said, “With the right mix of trade, investment and complementary policies, AI can create new growth opportunities in all economies. With the right frameworks, trade can play a central role in making AI work for all. The WTO is committed to supporting this effort.”
The report underscores that low- and middle-income countries could gain significantly if they succeed in narrowing their digital infrastructure gap with high-income economies. In a scenario where these economies close the gap by half, the WTO projects income growth of 15 percent for low-income economies and 14 percent for middle-income economies, driven by AI adoption.
At the same time, the study highlights a growing protectionist trend around AI-related goods. The number of quantitative restrictions applied to such products rose from 130 in 2012 to nearly 500 in 2024, mainly imposed by high- and upper-middle-income countries. Bound tariffs on AI-enabling goods in some low-income economies remain as high as 45 percent, further limiting access.
The WTO notes that inclusive AI development will also require parallel investment in human capital. Education, training, and labour market policies will be critical to preventing rising inequality within countries as automation and AI reshape industries.
The report further points to the role of the WTO as a forum for addressing emerging trade challenges linked to AI. It observes that around 80 specific trade concerns raised by members at the WTO have been focused on AI, while dedicated discussions on AI and inclusive trade are ongoing under the Work Programme on E-Commerce. Broader participation in the WTO’s Information Technology Agreement and updated commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) could help reduce costs and improve access to AI technologies, it adds.
Speaking at the launch of the report, Okonjo-Iweala placed the findings within a wider historical context.
“The new report comes amid the worst disruptions the global trading system has experienced in 80 years. Yet amid the risks to trade, growth and development prospects, there are bright spots – and one of them is the potential of artificial intelligence,” she said.
She also warned against repeating the mistakes of past globalisation waves, stating “The ongoing political backlash against trade has much to do with underinvestment in education, skills, retraining and social safety nets during these past three or four decades of globalisation. We cannot afford to repeat this mistake with AI.”
The WTO report added that while AI could open new frontiers for trade and growth, its benefits will depend heavily on open trade regimes, predictable policies, and cooperative international frameworks that prevent a new digital divide from stalling inclusive progress.
