Onome Amuge
Cocoa prices gained on Monday after fresh data from Ivory Coast pointed to a slowdown in export momentum, stoking concerns over tighter global supplies at the start of the main harvest season.
Government figures showed that Ivorian farmers shipped 1.82 million metric tonnes of cocoa to ports in the current marketing year through September 28, 3.4 per cent higher than the same period last year but well below the pace of growth seen in December, when shipments were up 35 per cent year on year.
Benchmark contracts rose on both sides of the Atlantic. December ICE New York cocoa futures climbed 1.06 per cent to $6,985 a tonne, while December ICE London cocoa gained 0.58 per cent to £5,740.
The rally comes as cocoa inventories monitored by ICE fell to a five-month low of 1.99 million bags in US ports last week, underscoring a tightening supply backdrop.
Beyond export flows, underlying crop conditions across West Africa remain precarious. Analysts warn that a prolonged spell of cold and dry weather across the region, the driest 60-day period since 1979, according to the Commodity Weather Group,is weighing on pod development in Ivory Coast and exacerbating black pod disease in Ghana and Nigeria.
Rabobank has flagged quality concerns with Ivory Coast’s mid-crop, which runs from April through September and is now wrapping up. Output is expected to fall to about 400,000 tonnes this year, a 9 per cent drop from 440,000 tonnes in 2023. The bank attributed weaker quality to erratic rains that disrupted crop growth.
In Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest producer, expectations for the upcoming season are deteriorating. The Cocoa Association of Nigeria projects output will fall 11 per cent year on year to 305,000 tonnes in 2025/26, down from 344,000 tonnes this year. Official trade data already reflect strain. This is as July cocoa exports slumped 22 per cent to 13,579 tonnes compared with a year earlier.
The combination of weaker mid-crop output in Ivory Coast and a projected decline in Nigerian supply has reinforced concerns that global inventories may struggle to recover in the near term.
The rally in cocoa prices has not been without resistance. Over the past seven weeks, futures have been pressured by fears that higher costs for chocolate manufacturers could crimp consumer demand. Prices had previously risen to more than two-year highs last month before retracing these demand worries.
With the start of the main crop harvest in October, all eyes will be on weather patterns and disease incidence in West Africa. If dry conditions persist, analysts warn that global deficits could widen into 2025, keeping cocoa prices elevated despite demand uncertainties.
