Onome Amuge
Cocoa prices fell to their lowest levels in almost two years on Thursday as expectations of stronger harvests in West Africa and rising farmer sales in Ghana and Ivory Coast weighed on the market.
December contracts in New York slid 2.9 per cent to settle at $6,454 per metric tonne, a 19-month low, while London cocoa dropped 3.8 per cent to £4,523 per tonne, its weakest close in 20 months. The declines extend a heavy sell-off that has gripped the market this week, reversing part of the surge that had driven cocoa to record highs earlier in 2025.
The downturn comes after the governments of Ivory Coast and Ghana, which together account for more than 60 per cent of global output, raised the prices they pay farmers for beans.
Recent shipment data already point to a sharp rebound in Ghana. Deliveries to its ports in the four weeks to September 4 reached 50,440 tonnes, up from about 11,000 tonnes in the same period a year earlier. “The increase in farmgate prices has unlocked more beans, just as the market was beginning to anticipate an improved main crop,” said one West Africa-based trader.
The outlook for Ivory Coast’s next harvest, which begins next month, is also causing downward pressure. Mondelez, the US confectionery group, said pod counts in the region were 7 per cent above the five-year average and “materially higher” than last year’s levels, suggesting a stronger crop ahead.
Although Ivory Coast mid-crop yields have been hampered by late rain, with this year’s harvest estimated at 400,000 tonnes, down 9 per cent from 2024, traders say optimism around the forthcoming main crop is overshadowing those quality concerns.
Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, has warned that its 2025/26 crop will shrink 11 per cent year on year, but the decline is expected to be more than offset by larger volumes from Ghana and Ivory Coast.
