Cocoa prices experienced a sharp upward movement on Monday, with futures contracts for both New York and London recording notable gains. The rally was primarily driven by emerging signs of a slowdown in cocoa exports from Ivory Coast, the world’s largest producer, coupled with reports of adverse weather conditions disrupting its mid-crop harvest.

September ICE NY cocoa futures closed up +110 points (+1.35%), while September ICE London cocoa futures advanced by +71 points (+1.23%).

Government data released on Monday indicated that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.73 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cocoa to ports during the current marketing year (October 1 to July 13). While this figure represents a 6.8 per cent increase from the previous year, it marks a substantial deceleration from the much larger +35 per cent increase observed in December, hinting at a tightening supply chain. Reports from the region suggest that heavy rainfall in Ivory Coast is impeding cocoa growers’ access to their farms, consequently disrupting the ongoing mid-crop harvest.

This recent price surge comes after a seven-week period of decline for cocoa futures, which had seen New York cocoa hit a 2.5-month low last Monday and London cocoa reach an 8.5-month nearest-futures low last Friday. That protracted sell-off was fueled by signs of weaker global demand and expectations of increased cocoa production worldwide.

Despite Monday’s rebound, the broader supply outlook remains mixed. Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, on July 1 projected its 2025/26 cocoa crop to increase by 8.3 per cent year-on-year to 650,000 MT, up from 600,000 MT in 2024/25. Larger supplies from Ghana typically exert bearish pressure on prices.

Adding to the bearish factors, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports climbed to a 10-month high of 2,363,861 bags on June 18, remaining below that peak at 2,338,724 bags as of Monday.