Onome Amuge
Cocoa futures extended losses on Wednesday, tumbling to their weakest levels in nearly a year in New York and more than 18 months in London, as signs of stronger supply from top West African producers weighed on the market.
December ICE New York cocoa contracts fell 1.1 per cent to $6,626 a tonne, the lowest close since November 2023, while London cocoa slid 0.9 per cent to £5,588 a tonne, marking its lowest settlement since April 2023.
The sell-off comes as Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, reports an increase in deliveries to ports. Shipments in the four weeks to September 4 reached 50,440 metric tonnes, sharply higher than about 11,000 tonnes in the same period last year.
Traders are also positioning for a stronger-than-expected harvest in Ivory Coast, the world’s leading producer. Chocolate maker Mondelez said recent pod counts in West Africa were 7 per cent above the five-year average and materially higher than last season, with the main Ivorian crop set to begin next month. Farmers in the region have expressed optimism about both yields and quality.
Still, analysts caution that not all indicators point to abundance. Government data show Ivory Coast cocoa shipments this season are up just 3.4 per cent year on year to 1.82 million tonnes, a slowdown from the pace of growth recorded earlier in the season. Inventories in US ports have also drawn down, with ICE-monitored stocks falling to a five-month low of just under 2mn bags.
Concerns over quality remain another source of support. Rabobank recently estimated Ivory Coast’s mid-crop at 400,000 tonnes, down 9 per cent year on year, citing weather-related damage from late rains. Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest producer, is also facing output challenges. Its cocoa association projects a decline of 11 per cent in 2025/26 to 305,000 tonnes, while July exports fell 22 per cent year on year.
With the main crop season approaching in both Ghana and Ivory Coast, traders expect heightened volatility.
Cocoa prices have been among the most volatile in the soft commodities complex this year, hitting record highs earlier in 2025 amid weather disruptions and supply shortfalls, before retreating sharply on signs of recovery in output.
