Onome Amuge
Cocoa prices slumped to their lowest levels in six weeks on Monday as signs of improving harvests in West Africa combined with weakening demand from major chocolate makers stoked expectations of oversupply.
New York-traded December cocoa futures fell 3.16 per cent to $7,226 a tonne, while December contracts in London slipped 2.04 per cent to £5,045 a tonne. The decline marked the steepest daily drop in more than a month and extended a four-week losing streak in the benchmark contracts.
Adding to the bearish sentiment is a more optimistic outlook for this year’s cocoa crop in West Africa, the world’s dominant producing region. Mondelez International, owner of the Cadbury and Oreo brands, said last week that cocoa pod counts across the region were running 7 per cent above the five-year average and “materially higher” than a year ago.
Government data from Ivory Coast, the world’s largest grower, showed cumulative cocoa arrivals at ports reached 1.81 million tonnes between October 1 and September 7, up 5.8 per cent year on year. While the pace of exports has slowed from the 35 per cent surge recorded in December, analysts say shipments remain consistent with a solid harvest.
Inventories monitored by ICE in US ports fell to a 3.75-month low of just over 2.13 million bags on Monday, providing some support to prices. But traders said the drawdown in stocks was not enough to offset expectations of a stronger main crop starting in October.
The short-term outlook is complicated by lingering quality concerns. The Ivory Coast’s mid-crop harvest, which runs through September, is expected to fall 9 per cent to 400,000 tonnes after late rains hampered pod development. Rabobank analysts said the poor quality of beans harvested so far could constrain export availability in the coming weeks.
Nigeria, the world’s fifth-largest producer, is also facing a challenging season. The Cocoa Association of Nigeria forecasts a sharp 11 per cent fall in 2025/26 production to 305,000 tonnes, down from an estimated 344,000 tonnes this year, citing weather disruptions and disease pressure. Even so, the country’s June cocoa exports edged up 0.9 per cent year on year to 14,597 tonnes.
