Table of Contents
Onome Amuge
The just concluded 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting in Davos, Switzerland,left behind no grand communiqué, no sweeping consensus, and no comforting illusion that the global economy is on a stable, predictable path. Instead, it exposed a world in transition;one where dialogue is fragile, alliances are strained, and economic assumptions that shaped policymaking for decades are crumbling.
For Nigeria, Africa’s fourth largest economy and one of the world’s most complex emerging markets, the lessons from Davos 2026 are not abstract. They cut directly into questions of growth, inflation, jobs, debt sustainability, energy security, foreign exchange stability, and Nigeria’s place in an increasingly contested global system.
Held under the theme “A Spirit of Dialogue,” the meeting brought together more than 60 heads of state, over 400 political leaders, and more than 830 chief executives at a time when geopolitical rivalry, geoeconomic fragmentation, and social polarisation are redefining how economies interact. While the forum did not produce clear answers, it sharpened the questions that governments and businesses must now confront.
A global economy Nigeria cannot ignore
The global economy that Nigeria must confront in 2026 is different from the one that underpinned its growth strategies in the past. The Davos conversations revealed a world where trust between major powers, particularly the United States and Europe, is declining, trade rules are increasingly weaponised, and capital flows are becoming more selective and politically conditioned.
Gita Gopinath, Harvard economics professor and former IMF first deputy managing director, described the moment as potentially the beginning of a “once-in-a-century breakdown of the global order,” driven by the collapse of trust between traditional allies.
“The US-Europe alliance was a critical part of the global economic order and the fact that it is being ruptured is very consequential,” she warned.
An economy as exposed as Nigeria’s to global oil markets, foreign portfolio flows, external borrowing and imported inflation faces heightened risks from such a rupture. Fragmentation in global trade could disrupt supply chains and drive up import costs, while increased financial volatility may restrict access to foreign capital and place additional pressure on the naira. Meanwhile, a shift towards protectionism in advanced economies threatens to narrow export opportunities at a moment when Nigeria is striving to diversify away from oil.
At the same time, Davos also highlighted that the global system is not collapsing into chaos, but reorganising into new blocs, alliances, and issue-based coalitions. The key question for Nigeria is whether it will adapt fast enough to remain relevant.
One of the most striking developments at Davos 2026 was the assertiveness of so-called middle powers. Countries such as Canada, India, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, and several Asian economies used the forum to articulate independent strategies, form coalitions, and position themselves as agenda-setters rather than passive rule-takers.
Mark Carney captured the mood when he said: “The middle powers must act together because if we’re not at the table, we’re on the menu.”
This has uncomfortable implications for Nigeria. Despite its size, population, and economic potential, Nigeria was largely absent from the coalition-building conversations that dominated Davos. While the European Union announced it was on the cusp of a landmark free trade agreement with India, creating a market of two billion people, Nigeria and much of Africa remained peripheral to these emerging trade architectures.
This absence matters because the global economy is increasingly being organised through bilateral and plurilateral deals rather than universal multilateral rules. Countries that fail to secure strategic partnerships risk being locked out of preferential markets, technology flows, and investment pipelines.
For Nigeria, this reinforces the urgency of translating its regional leadership within ECOWAS and the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) into tangible global economic relevance. AfCFTA remains a powerful concept, but Davos highlighted a growing impatience among investors and policymakers for execution rather than aspiration.
Notably, Davos 2026 took place against a backdrop of slowing global growth. The global economy is projected to expand by around 3.3 percent in 2026, slightly below 2025 levels. Growth in developing economies is expected to moderate to about 4 percent as trade fragmentation, weak investment, and tighter financial conditions weigh on activity.
Nigeria’s growth has remained modest and uneven in recent years. Thus, this global slowdown compounds domestic challenges. Inflation remains high, while fiscal space is constrained by rising debt service costs.
The message from Davos highlighted that the era of easy growth driven by globalisation and abundant capital is over. As it stands, countries must now generate growth through productivity gains, institutional reforms, and investment in people.
Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, warned against the belief that the old order will somehow return. “If this change is permanent, then Europe must change permanently too,” she said.
Nigeria faces a similar reckoning. Many of its economic debates remain anchored in assumptions that no longer hold, including the belief that oil revenues will rebound strongly and sustainably; that foreign capital will flow back once macroeconomic indicators stabilise; and that growth can resume without deep structural reforms. However, Davos indicates otherwise.
Meanwhile, some issues resonated more strongly with Nigeria’s economic reality than the Davos discussions on public debt.
Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that many developing countries are now spending more on debt repayments than on healthcare and education. She urged governments to confront reality and pursue debt restructuring where necessary. As Rebeca Grynspan,UNCTAD secretary-general stated; “They don’t want to default on the debt, but they’re defaulting on development.”
Nigeria exemplifies this dilemma. With public debt exceeding N150 trillion and debt servicing consuming a growing share of federal revenues, fiscal flexibility is severely constrained. Moreso, the capacity to invest in infrastructure, education, healthcare, and social protection (key drivers of long-term growth), is increasingly limited.
The Davos message is not that borrowing is inherently bad, but that debt without growth-enhancing investment becomes a trap. For Nigeria, this reinforces the urgency of improving revenue mobilisation, broadening the tax base, reducing leakages, and ensuring that borrowed funds are channelled into projects that raise productivity.
It also raises difficult questions about Nigeria’s engagement with international financial institutions. As global shocks become more frequent, the ability to access multilateral support, on credible terms, will depend on policy coherence and institutional credibility.
Energy security: a global priority with local consequences
Energy security was another dominant theme at Davos 2026. Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, said he had never seen energy security risks multiply at such a pace, arguing that energy security should now be treated as national security.
Despite being a major oil and gas producer, Nigeria continues to deal with fuel shortages, power deficits, and energy infrastructure bottlenecks that constrain growth and undermine competitiveness. The Davos discussions underscored that energy is no longer just an economic input but a strategic asset shaping geopolitical influence and investment flows.
Europe’s push for strategic autonomy and cleaner energy is reshaping global demand patterns. While oil will remain relevant, capital is increasingly flowing toward gas, renewables, and energy-transition projects with clear regulatory frameworks.
Nigeria’s gas reserves present a major opportunity, particularly as a transition fuel. However, Davos made clear that investors are no longer willing to tolerate regulatory uncertainty, weak governance, and inconsistent policy signals.
Artificial intelligence, jobs, and Nigeria’s demographic pressure
Artificial intelligence dominated Davos conversations, not as a futuristic concept but as a present economic force. IMF chief Georgieva estimated that 40 per cent of jobs globally will be affected by AI in the coming years, either transformed or eliminated. In advanced economies, the figure rises to 60 per cent.
For Nigeria, with a rapidly growing population and a labour market already struggling to absorb new entrants, the implications are profound.
On one hand, AI offers opportunities to leapfrog traditional development constraints. Digital financial services, agritech, healthtech, and edtech could all benefit from AI-driven efficiency gains. Leaders such as Nvidia’s Jensen Huang expressed optimism that AI could help close the global technology divide.
On the other hand, Davos also exposed the risks. Without strong education systems, digital infrastructure, and skills development, AI could exacerbate inequality and unemployment. Jonathan Haidt warned of the cognitive and social costs of unregulated technology exposure, while others cautioned that societies risk prioritising productivity over humanity.
The challenge for Nigeria is not whether AI will arrive (it already has), but whether policy, education, and labour market reforms can keep pace.
Another recurring theme at Davos was inequality and social cohesion. Christine Lagarde warned that ignoring widening disparities could push societies into real trouble, urging leaders to focus on distribution, not just headline growth figures.
This message resonates strongly in Nigeria, where inflation, currency depreciation, and subsidy reforms have deflated household purchasing power. While macroeconomic indicators may show signs of stabilisation, the lived reality for many Nigerians remains one of economic stress.
Davos reinforced a critical point, noting that economic reform without social cushioning risks undermining political and economic legitimacy. For Nigeria, this highlights the importance of targeted social investment, labour market reforms, and policies that translate growth into broad-based welfare gains.
Dialogue as economic strategy
Another important lesson from Davos 2026 is that dialogue has become an economic strategy, not just a diplomatic nicety. From behind-the-scenes negotiations on Greenland to emerging talks on Ukraine, Davos demonstrated that dialogue, however imperfect, can de-escalate tensions and unlock economic opportunities.
World Economic Forum president Børge Brende described dialogue as “not a luxury, but a necessity.” Mohammed Al-Jadaan, Saudi finance minister echoed this, noting that even the most powerful countries now recognise they cannot solve global problems alone.
Living the questions: Nigeria’s defining test
Davos 2026 was framed around five defining questions: cooperation in a contested world; new sources of growth; investment in people; responsible innovation; and prosperity within planetary boundaries. None were definitively answered.
However that uncertainty is not an excuse for inaction for Nigeria, but rather a call for strategic clarity.
How does Nigeria grow in a world where globalisation is selective? How does it create jobs in an age of automation? How does it manage debt without sacrificing development? How does it balance energy security with climate responsibility?
As Swiss President Guy Parmelin quoted philosopher Henri Bergson: “To exist is to change.”
The lesson from Davos is that standing still is no longer an option. According to analysts, Nigeria must adapt deliberately, decisively, and inclusively, to a world that will not slow down or simplify.
Though Davos did not offer Nigeria answers, what it offered was a clearer view of the risks ahead and a reminder that the cost of not engaging with these questions may be far higher than the discomfort of confronting them now.
