Table of Contents
Joy Agwunobi
As Nigeria edges toward 2026, the country’s digital economy is expanding at a pace few sectors can match. Mobile payments, video streaming, cloud-based work tools and emerging artificial intelligence applications are becoming everyday utilities rather than optional services.
However, as digital activity deepens, attention is increasingly turning to the strength and resilience of the networks carrying this transformation.
Data from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) suggests that Nigeria is entering the new year with record levels of connectivity. Broadband penetration rose to 49.89 percent as of October 2025, while total telecom subscriptions climbed to 175.08 million, pushing teledensity, the number of telephone connections per 100 inhabitants to 80.87 percent, the highest recorded so far this year. These figures reflect a population that is more connected than ever, but they also raise questions about whether network capacity is keeping pace with usage.
Mobile internet remains the backbone of Nigeria’s connectivity story. NCC figures show that GSM-based internet subscribers accounted for more than 142 million users as of October, far outweighing other access channels such as Internet Service Providers (ISPs), Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services and fixed wired connections, which together represent only a small fraction of total subscriptions.
According to the commission, active broadband subscriptions increased to 108.2 million, lifting penetration to 49.89 percent from 45.3 percent in January 2025. During the same period, Nigerians consumed a total of 1,235,459.47 terabytes of data, underscoring a sustained rise in digital activity driven by mobile connectivity, streaming services, remote work and e-commerce.
Rising usage, uneven network experience
While data consumption has surged, quality-of-service concerns have persisted. Call drops, slow internet speeds and intermittent outages remained recurring issues throughout 2025, highlighting the gap between rising digital expectations and network performance. Although operators continued to invest in upgrades and optimisation, demand often expanded faster than available capacity.
These pressures did not emerge in isolation. Telecom operators have consistently pointed to a challenging operating environment marked by rising energy costs, foreign exchange constraints and heavy capital expenditure requirements. As a result, maintaining existing infrastructure has become as critical as expanding it, forcing companies to prioritise efficiency and optimisation over rapid nationwide rollout.
Heading into 2026, digital demand is no longer driven by novelty but by necessity. Financial services increasingly depend on uninterrupted connectivity, as mobile transfers, digital wallets and online banking platforms become essential tools for individuals and businesses.
Remote and hybrid work models, though evolving, continue to rely on stable broadband for video conferencing and collaboration. Educational platforms, media streaming services and social commerce are also driving higher data usage, while enterprises adopt cloud-based systems that require consistent uptime.
Beyond these, emerging technologies are adding a new layer of pressure. Artificial intelligence tools, data analytics platforms and connected devices are gradually moving from experimentation to adoption, placing incremental demands on networks originally built for earlier generations of digital use.
4G gains ground as 5G grows slowly
NCC data shows that fourth-generation (4G) networks now serve 51.77 percent of subscribers, overtaking second-generation (2G) services, which account for 38.40 percent, for the first time. Third-generation (3G) networks represent 6.34 percent of users, reflecting a gradual transition toward faster connections.
While still emerging, 5G adoption has increased modestly, rising from about one percent at the start of the year to 3.49 percent in October. The growth signals increasing device availability and early-stage network deployment, particularly in major urban centres.
However, infrastructure gaps remain pronounced. A joint study titled Nigeria Network Performance and 5G Opportunity Analysis, conducted by the NCC and global internet performance analytics firm Ookla, highlights a significant mismatch between device readiness and network availability. The findings reveal that while Lagos and the Federal Capital Territory command a high concentration of 5G gadgets, most users do not have effective network coverage.
Lagos recorded an average 5G coverage gap of 70.9 percent, with roughly 41,057 5G-capable devices yet to achieve full access. The gap in Abuja stood at 65.6 percent with 16,143 devices identified, underscoring a significant mismatch between device readiness and network availability.
The report warned that rural communities remain overwhelmingly dependent on 2G and 3G networks, resulting in slow speeds, degraded service quality, and widening digital exclusion. It recommended accelerated nationwide 4G and 5G deployment to avoid deepening socioeconomic inequality.
Performance variations across operators
The NCC-Ookla review also assessed the quality and consistency of service delivery across the major operators. Findings show MTN leading nationally with the most reliable performance, maintaining strong download and upload speeds backed by stable latency across regions. Airtel followed closely, demonstrating competitive speed strength particularly in urban centres, although the report notes that its latency performance requires improvement as the industry accelerates toward full 5G expansion.
Glo, on the other hand, recorded significant challenges linked to latency and jitter, issues that continue to affect user experience and overall network stability. T2, formerly 9mobile, showed mixed results, with pockets of high-speed performance but persistent service gaps that indicate inconsistent network reliability across the country.
Looking beyond 5G: The spectrum question
Even as Nigeria works to deepen 4G and expand 5G coverage, global industry bodies are already warning of future capacity constraints. The GSMA has cautioned that telecom operators worldwide could face severe limitations in the next decade unless governments take early decisions to expand access to mid-band spectrum ahead of sixth-generation (6G) networks.
In its report, Vision 2040: Spectrum for the Future of Mobile Connectivity, the GSMA said next-generation 6G networks will require up to three times more mid-band spectrum than is typically available today to support growing demand for data, AI-driven services and advanced digital applications.
Compiled by GSMA Intelligence and the association’s global spectrum team, the study estimates that countries will require an average of 2–3 GHz of mid-band spectrum between 2035 and 2040 to meet capacity needs in densely populated urban areas, with higher-demand markets potentially requiring up to 4 GHz.
The findings come as governments prepare for negotiations ahead of the World Radiocommunication Conference 2027 (WRC-27), hosted by the International Telecommunication Union. The GSMA warned that delayed policy decisions could result in slower mobile speeds, rising congestion and lost economic opportunities throughout the 2030s.
The report argued that long-term, harmonised spectrum planning is essential to keep 6G services affordable and widely available. It warned that delays in policy decisions could leave consumers with poorer connectivity and businesses struggling to adopt next-generation digital tools.
“This study shows that the 6G era will require three times more mid-band spectrum than is available today. Meeting these spectrum requirements will support sustainable connectivity, deliver digital ambitions and help economies grow,” John Giusti, GSMA’s chief regulatory officer, said.
Infrastructure strain and service disruptions
Beyond spectrum and coverage, physical infrastructure challenges continue to weigh heavily on network performance. Fibre infrastructure, which is critical for high-capacity backhaul and enterprise connectivity, remains unevenly deployed, with rural areas lagging far behind urban centres.
Power supply challenges further complicate network reliability. Base stations depend heavily on alternative energy sources, driving up operational costs and affecting service consistency.
In the first eight months of 2025, the telecom sector suffered more than 40,000 disruptions. Aminu Maida, executive vice chairman of the NCC, said at a Business Roundtable on Improving Investments in Broadband Connectivity and Safeguarding Critical National Infrastructure.
According to him, the disruptions comprising 19,384 fibre cuts, 3,241 cases of equipment theft, and over 19,000 denials of access to telecom sites have resulted in prolonged outages, significant revenue losses, increased security costs, and delays in restoring services for millions of users.
“These incidents demonstrate why infrastructure protection must remain at the centre of our collective agenda. Without it, Nigeria risks stalling its broadband ambitions,” Maida said.
The EVC also noted that broadband expansion is further slowed by fragmented and unpredictable Right of Way (RoW) policies across states, which create delays and cost uncertainties for operators. He added that inconsistent enforcement of infrastructure protection, weak coordination with road authorities, poor construction planning, energy supply volatility, multiple taxation, and bureaucratic permitting processes are compounding the sector’s challenges.
“Broadband access transforms local markets into global ones, expands opportunities for our youth, and turns state economies into innovation-driven ecosystems. If countries like Rwanda and India have leveraged broadband to reposition their economies, Nigeria with its young and vibrant population can do even more if we provide reliable and affordable high-speed connectivity,” he said.
Operators step up investment
Faced with mounting pressure, telecom operators are recalibrating their strategies. Rather than pursuing broad expansion, many are focusing on network optimisation, smarter traffic management and selective upgrades in high-demand areas.
MTN Nigeria disclosed that it invested N757.4 billion in capital expenditure, excluding leases, during the nine months ended September 30, 2025, a 248 percent increase year-on-year. The company said the investment was aimed at improving network capacity and quality of service for its more than 85.4 million subscribers.
The telco noted that the spending was necessary to address network congestion as its active data user base rose to 51.1 million. Chief Executive Officer Karl Toriola said the accelerated investment was undertaken to “improve quality of service in line with our commitment to our customers and the government.”
Airtel Africa, in its half-year financial results for the period ended September 30, 2025, reported capital expenditure of $318 million, in line with the previous year. However, the group raised its capex guidance for the 2026 financial year to between $875 million and $900 million as it accelerates investment in network expansion and data capacity across its markets.
“Our strategy has been focused on providing a superior customer experience, and the strength of these results reflects the initiatives we have been implementing across the business,” said Sunil Taldar, chief executive officer of Airtel Africa.
Regulation and security in focus
According to industry analysts,regulatory oversight is expected to play a defining role in shaping the telecom sector’s performance in 2026. Quality-of-service benchmarks, spectrum pricing, infrastructure-sharing frameworks and right-of-way policies will all influence operators’ ability to invest and expand.
In October, the NCC announced a partnership with Swedfund, Sweden’s development finance institution, to establish a risk-based security framework for Nigeria’s evolving 5G landscape. The initiative aims to ensure the safe design, deployment and operation of current and future network systems.
The commission said the collaboration reinforces its commitment to safeguarding critical network infrastructure as Nigeria deepens adoption of technologies underpinning sectors such as power, healthcare, education, smart mobility and industrial automation.
While 5G delivers high-speed connectivity, low latency and support for millions of connected devices, the NCC noted that its advanced architecture and diverse vendor environments also introduce more complex security risks.
“Through this partnership, the NCC aims to ensure that 5G and future network systems are securely designed, deployed, and operated. Security and trust remain central to Nigeria’s digital future. As 5G supports key sectors, this initiative will strengthen public confidence, protect national interests, and build a safer, more resilient digital economy,” the commission stated.
A defining test in 2026
As digital services become more integral to economic activity, regulatory decisions will increasingly shape not just telecom outcomes, but the performance of fintech, e-commerce, media and public services.
Industry analysts warn that several risks could define telecom performance in 2026. Capital investment constraints remain a concern amid high equipment costs and currency volatility, while energy expenses continue to weigh heavily on network operations. Cybersecurity threats are also becoming more sophisticated as networks carry growing volumes of sensitive data.
Consumer expectations present another challenge. As digital services improve, tolerance for network failures diminishes, widening the gap between user expectations and service reality if infrastructure upgrades fail to keep pace.
As 2026 draws closer, Nigeria’s telecom sector finds itself at a decisive moment. Significant progress has been recorded in connectivity and access, yet deep-seated structural challenges continue to test the system. Networks are carrying heavier digital loads than ever before, while consumer and enterprise expectations continue to climb.
How far Nigeria’s digital economy advances in the year ahead may depend less on the proliferation of new applications and more on the resilience, security and capacity of the infrastructure that supports them. In this context, telecom networks are no longer just enablers of digital growth, they are fast becoming the determining factor of how far that growth can go.
