Like turkeys voting for Christmas could be a cynic’s critique of the 28th United Nations Climate Change Conference held in Dubai. Organised by the United Arab Emirates in 2023, the primary objective was to discuss and “agree on policies to limit global temperature rises and adapt to impacts associated with climate change.”
Notwithstanding counter-claims of climate change deniers and hoaxers, reputable scientists have provided solid evidence linking the burning of fossil fuels, such as petroleum, natural gas and coal, to global warming. This human-induced phenomenon is attributed to carbon dioxide emissions and greenhouse gases that trap heat in the atmosphere. While sceptics continue to have their say, most nations have cautiously embraced the clean energy agenda, based on enlightened self-interest.
Still, a strong suspicion persists that oil-producing nations and exploration companies are lukewarm at best about the prospect of migrating to renewable energy. Unlike sporadic sources like solar and wind, hydrocarbons are portable and easier to store and distribute. So, in the medium term, economies that profit from non-renewables might surreptitiously encourage elastic interpretations of transition timelines.
As such, the elephant in the plenary room of the Dubai conference camouflaged the divergent interests of the host nation, OPEC members like Saudi Arabia and Nigeria, including Russia, a non-OPEC participant. Also in attendance were the world’s largest coal polluters; that is, China, India and the United States, whose leadership will be crucial in order to pivot to a more sustainable future encompassing biomass, hydropower, geothermal, and nuclear energy.
Before fossil fuels, electricity, and the internal combustion engine revolutionised the industrial economy, transportation and the heavy-lifting associated with labour were largely performed by horses. Early in the 20th century, the slain and plucked yuletide turkeys of that era included carriage manufacturers, blacksmiths, wagon builders, whip makers, horse breeders, coachmen, hay merchants, and millions of horses.
In large cosmopolitan cities, street cleaners were recruited to clear tonnes of manure and thousands of gallons of urine annually, which represented a recurring environmental and sanitation nightmare. Though not on the same scale as today’s climate and pollution crisis, the public heaved a huge sigh of relief when the horse economy flatlined then disappeared, although it upended livelihoods and sparked massive job losses.
Over time, the automobile industry generated millions of new jobs, while the game-changing impact resulted in myriad winners and losers. And, as is often the case, progressive trends tend to have built-in unintended consequences. In the event, contemporary green energy technologies are bound to cause worldwide disruptions, especially in countries like Nigeria and Venezuela that rely inordinately on oil and gas exports. Clearly, regardless of the delaying tactics adopted by hydrocarbon proponents, the flint-eyed retort is unequivocal: “Sooner or later, you are going down!”
Going forward, several advanced economies have committed to net-zero carbon targets and the rollout of electric transportation systems. Meanwhile, new technologies are boosting the cost competitiveness of solar and wind power, including hydrogen fuel cells, all reinforced by battery storage breakthroughs. Despite the controversies surrounding nuclear power generation, modularisation and design improvements ensure that many countries are taking a second look at adding this source into their energy mix.
So, where does all this leave Nigeria?
Internal focus has been on the deregulation of the Nigerian downstream oil sector, which has long been plagued by sleaze and spectacular own goals. In parallel, the upstream sector which is dependent on foreign expertise, is marred by piracy, misappropriation, militancy, and ecological despoliation. While brazen kleptomaniacs squabbled over oil revenues, state-owned refineries and pipeline networks ran aground, even as the legacy national electricity infrastructure virtually collapsed. Materially, the energy industry has suffered from underinvestment, skullduggery, and badly executed incentive programmes.
As the economy reels, the chickens – unlike turkeys – are coming home to roost in a nation that won the dubious lottery of pressurised geological deposits on its territory. Plundered wealth morphed into economic crises, which created opportunities for genuine reforms. By ending energy subsidies and liberalising the exchange rate policy, these interventions should create an opening for foreign and local investors to reappraise the largest market in Africa. By virtue of its size and geography, Nigeria could be a regional hub for private sector investments in decarbonised energy projects.
In times past, Nigerians shunned vocational and technical education that could have conferred lifelong practical skills; instead, multitudes opted for pointless university qualifications. Meanwhile, the alternative energy industry now attracts workers such as solar panel installers and wind technicians (which are comparatively attractive blue-collar jobs), as artificial intelligence disrupts traditional vocations. With a soaring youth population, can this country objectively ignore an altered labour landscape?
To revive its ailing and job-starved economy, Nigeria must revisit the original green revolution bolstered by intensive agriculture, incorporate industrial and green energy solutions in value chains, and stop staking the future on a zombie racehorse.
