Joy Agwunobi
A new report jointly released by the International Labour Organisation (ILO) and Poland’s National Research Institute (NASK) has revealed that approximately 25 per cent of jobs worldwide are at potential risk of exposure to generative artificial intelligence (GenAI).
The most affected roles, according to the study, are clerical positions and occupations that heavily depend on digital technologies.
The report titled “Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure,” was unveiled on May 20 and offers one of the most comprehensive evaluations to date of how GenAI may impact employment trends and the structure of global labor markets.
Despite rising concerns about automation-driven job loss, the ILO-NASK study emphasises that GenAI is more likely to transform jobs rather than replace them entirely. The research indicates that while a quarter of global jobs are potentially exposed to AI capabilities, full automation remains unlikely in most cases. Many tasks, even if AI-enhanced, still require human judgment, creativity, or supervision.
Using an innovative “occupational exposure index,” the report maps the potential impact of GenAI across various job types and national contexts. This index combines artificial intelligence-assisted scoring with expert reviews and granular employment data to assess the degree of exposure across industries and occupations.
The report highlights significant geographic disparities in exposure levels. High-income countries, which are more deeply integrated with digital infrastructure and tools, face a higher potential impact. In these economies, up to 34 per cent of jobs could be influenced by GenAI, compared to lower percentages in developing regions where digital adoption is slower.
Clerical roles—such as data entry, record keeping, and routine administrative work—are identified as the most exposed, given that many of their core functions can be theoretically replicated by GenAI systems.
In addition, certain highly digitised cognitive occupations, particularly in media, software development, and finance, also face increased exposure due to the nature of their tasks.
Another critical insight from the study is the gendered nature of job exposure. In high-income countries, 9.6 per cent of female employment is concentrated in roles with the highest risk of automation, compared to 3.5 per cent for men. This suggests a disproportionate impact on women, likely due to their higher representation in clerical and administrative occupations.
To help guide informed policy responses, the report introduces “exposure gradients”—a classification tool that groups occupations by their level of vulnerability to GenAI. This tool helps distinguish between jobs likely to experience total automation and those that are expected to evolve through task redefinition.
Pawel Gmyrek, the ILO’s senior researcher and lead author of the study, stated:
“We went beyond theory to build a tool grounded in real-world jobs. By combining human insight, expert review, and generative AI models, we have created a replicable method that helps countries assess risk and respond with precision.”
Marek Troszyński, a senior expert at NASK and co-author of the report, added that the index will now be applied to Poland’s detailed labor force data, aiming to refine local strategies for workforce adaptation.
The report underscores that its findings represent potential exposure, not guaranteed job displacement. Numerous factors including infrastructure limitations, workforce skill levels, and economic readiness will influence the real-world adoption of GenAI technologies across regions and sectors.
Janine Berg, Senior Economist at the ILO, cautioned against falling into speculative hype about AI’s disruption, stating, “It’s easy to get lost in the AI hype. What we need is clarity and context. This tool helps countries across the world assess potential exposure and prepare their labour markets for a fairer digital future.”
The ILO and NASK urge governments, employers, and trade unions to engage in meaningful social dialogue aimed at shaping inclusive, forward-looking strategies.
According to the institutions, proactive policies should prioritise upskilling, reskilling, and ensuring that technology adoption contributes to improved job quality and productivity, especially in highly exposed sectors.
The study’s align with previous analyses, including a 2023 Goldman Sachs report that projected AI could impact up to one-quarter of global jobs, potentially displacing as many as 300 million full-time roles. However, both reports suggest that technological disruption may also catalyse the creation of new occupations and productivity gains.
Oil windfall expectations from the Middle East crisis