Global eCommerce to hit $11.4trn by 2029 as APMs unlock untapped potential of digital economies

Joy Agwunobi

A recent report from Juniper Research, a leading fintech research and consulting firm, predicts that the global eCommerce market will soar from $7 trillion in 2024 to $11.4 trillion by 2029, fueled by the increasing adoption of Alternative Payment Methods (APMs) in emerging markets.

As the digital economy gears up for a period of unprecedented growth, Juniper Research’s findings offer crucial insights for businesses and investors, helping them to craft effective strategies to capitalise on the coming opportunities. Drawing upon a wealth of data, with over 54,700 data points sourced from 60 countries worldwide, the report projected that APMs such as digital wallets and account-to-account payments will account for 69 per cent  of all global eCommerce transactions by 2029, totaling an estimated 360 billion transactions.

The report further noted that this increase in APM usage is set to transform online purchasing in regions where traditional card payments are less prevalent, providing new opportunities for consumers to engage in eCommerce for the first time.

As the report points out, APMs’ role in transforming the eCommerce landscape goes beyond simply enabling transactions; rather, these innovative payment solutions are revolutionising the digital economy by empowering unbanked consumers in emerging markets to participate in the global marketplace.

In the absence of robust card-based infrastructure, emerging markets have historically faced constraints in terms of their ability to facilitate online commerce. Juniper Research’s report, however, highlights that the growing prevalence of Alternative Payment Methods will drive a significant shift in this regard, enabling a broader range of consumers to engage in eCommerce. Moreover, the report indicates that improvements in delivery systems, bolstered by increased investment, will serve to further enhance the practicality and appeal of online shopping in these regions, thereby further propelling the expansion of the digital economy.

Juniper Research’s report emphasised that Payment Service Providers (PSPs) will need to adapt to the changing digital landscape to effectively capitalise on emerging opportunities. To maximise customer conversion rates, the report indicated that PSPs must tailor their payment solutions to local preferences and needs, acknowledging the heterogeneous nature of different markets.

In assessing the rising prominence of APMs, Lorien Carter, the research author, emphasised the striking growth of these alternative payment options.

Carter highlighted that APM transaction volumes have outpaced card-based transactions in emerging markets, presenting a compelling opportunity for merchants seeking to expand their customer base and penetrate new markets. Carter also asserted that APMs are rapidly emerging as a critical strategy for businesses looking to tap into these emerging opportunities.