Grim picture as AfDB projects $236.7bn GDP loss for Nigeria, others

As the Coronavirus spreads and dislocates many productive sectors on the African continent, the African Development Bank has projected that Nigeria and the rest of Africa could lose about $236.7 billion in their cumulative gross domestic product in 2020.

Specifically, the AfDB said the pandemic could lead to a 3.4 percent contaction in the GDP of the African continent if was not brought under control and allowed to extend into the second quarter of the year, representing 7.3 percent points decline .from the projected growth before the outbreak of the pandemic.

However, the bank said the GDP would contract by 1.7 percent if the pandemic was controlled during the first half of the year.
It said the cumulative GDP loss for the continent could range between $173.1bn and $236.7bn in 2020–2021.

The AfDB said these in its report on African Economic Outlook.

The bank projected that if the COVID-19 pandemic and its harsh impacts persist on the continent beyond the first half of this year, there would be deeper contraction of the continent’s GDP.

It estimated the Real GDP of Africa to contract by 1.7 per cent this year.

This represents a 5.6 percentage points drop from the January 2020 pre-COVID–19 projection if the virus has a substantial impact but of short duration.

The AfDB, however, explained that a prolonged situation into the second half of this year caused by the pandemic would result in deeper GDP contraction.

It projected a deeper contraction of about 3.4 per cent, down by 7.3 percentage points from the growth projected before the outbreak of COVID–19.