Onome Amuge
Nigeria’s ambition to transform into a $1 trillion economy by 2030 is at risk of falling far short, according to a new Norrenberger analysis that highlights the severe impact of currency depreciation on the nation’s economic output. The H2 2025 Norrenberger Economic Outlook Report warns that a drop in the country’s dollar-denominated GDP has created a monumental gap, requiring a pace of growth that far outstrips its current trajectory.
The report pointed out that while the country’s nominal GDP (rebased figure) stood at $589.6 billion in 2022, it plummeted to $341.2 billion in 2023 and now rests at $237.5 billion as of 2024. This contraction in dollar terms, despite moderate growth in local currency terms, is attributed almost entirely to the depreciation of the Naira. With just five years remaining to meet the ambitious 2030 target, the report makes it clear that the current pace of growth (averaging around 4 per cent in real terms and 15 per cent in nominal terms annually) is woefully inadequate.
“Our analysis suggests that to realistically attain a $1 trillion economy by 2030, Nigeria would need annual nominal growth of at least 22% while also stabilizing the exchange rate at or below N1,200/$,” the report stated.
The Indonesian blueprint for growth
To illustrate the transformative action required, the Norrenberger report holds up Indonesia as a compelling model. Over the past 25 years, Indonesia successfully evolved from a volatile emerging economy to a $1 trillion market, a feat achieved by averaging nearly nine per cent annual growth.
Indonesia’s formula for success was built on a range of pragmatic and targeted reforms that allowed it to overcome volatility and build a resilient economy. The report specifically points to key policy areas where Nigeria needs to take decisive action. “Achieving this ambitious goal will require more than just optimistic projections, it demands coordinated and transformative policy action, especially between the public and private sectors,” it stated.
A call for coordinated and transformative policy
The report provides a detailed set of policy prescriptions that are essential for Nigeria to close the economic gap and get back on track for its 2030 target. At the heart of these recommendations is exchange rate management. The recent depreciation has had a devastating impact on the dollar value of the economy, and stabilizing the local currency is a prerequisite for any meaningful long-term growth.
According to the Norrenberger report, without a predictable and stable exchange rate, it is nearly impossible for both local and international investors to make the long-term capital commitments necessary for large-scale development.
Beyond currency stability, the report stresses the need for massive investments in infrastructure. Nigeria’s infrastructure deficit has long been a major bottleneck to economic expansion. Investing in power, transport, and digital connectivity is also seen as fundamental to improving productivity, reducing the cost of doing business, and unlocking the potential of key sectors. Such investments, a key part of Indonesia’s success story, are critical for creating the enabling environment required for private sector growth.
The Norrenberger report also calls for a renewed focus on export diversification and a coherent industrial policy. Nigeria’s reliance on oil exports leaves its economy vulnerable to global commodity price shocks. Building a diversified export base, supported by targeted industrial policies, is projected to create new sources of revenue and jobs. This, the report stated, must be complemented by human capital development, ensuring that the country’s vast youth population is equipped with the skills needed for a modern, competitive economy.
The report underscores the importance of strong institutions and a robust anti-corruption drive. These governance reforms are essential for building investor confidence, both domestically and internationally.
Norrenberger posits that a transparent and predictable regulatory environment, coupled with a genuine commitment to tackling corruption, would unlock foreign direct investment and unleash the entrepreneurial energy that Nigeria is famous for. It stated that without these institutional pillars, even the most well-intentioned policy reforms are unlikely to yield the desired results.
