Inflation watch: FSDH analysts see index dropping 0.16bps to 15.46% in June

Anticipating the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics figures, analysts at FSDH research have projected a further drop in inflation figures for the month of June.

“We expect the June 2017 inflation rate (year-on-year) to drop to 15.64% from 16.25% recorded in the month of May 2017,” they said, attributing their prognosis to the moderation in prices of food in the month of June.

“The increase in the price of food items moderated in the month of June compared with May 2017. We also observed increases in some divisions that contribute to the Core Sub-Index, with the highest price observed in the clothing and footwear divisions.”

Based on the data release calendar on the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) website, the inflation rate for the month of June 2017 would be released on July 17, 2017.

“The Naira lost 0.16% to close at N305.90/US$ at the inter-bank market while it gained 2.96% to close at N371/US$ at the parallel market at the end of June 2017. The appreciation of the Naira in the parallel market is expected to counter the effect of the rising prices of food at the international market.

“Hence, this should lead to a moderation in the pass through effect of imported prices on consumer goods in Nigeria. There was a general price increase in most of the food items that FSDH Research monitored in June 2017,” they noted.

The prices of onions, yam, tomatoes, garri, sweet potatoes, palm oil, vegetable oil, Irish potatoes and rice were up by 33.89%, 24.6%, 11.11%, 6.67%, 4.76%, 4.62%, 3.03%, 2.96% and 2.69% respectively.

Meanwhile, the prices of beans, meat and fish were stable. The movement in the prices of food items during the month resulted in 1.25% increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 243.34 points.

FSDH said it noticed increase in the prices of Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between May 2017 and June 2017.

“Our model indicates that the general price movements in the consumer goods and services in June 2017 would increase the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) to 233.25 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 1.18%.

“We estimate that the increase in the CCPI in June 2017 would produce an inflation rate of 15.64% lower than the 16.25% recorded in May 2017.”