Onome Amuge
As Nigeria’s equity market heads into 2026, analysts are highlighting a select group of blue-chip companies that stand out for their scale, pricing power, and resilient earnings. MTN Nigeria Plc, Dangote Cement Plc, Guinness Nigeria Plc, and Okomu Oil Palm Plc have emerged as the most attractive options for investors targeting stability and medium-term growth, according to Financial Derivatives Company (FDC).
The recommendation was made by Bismarck Rewane, Chief Executive Officer of FDC, during a presentation at the Lagos Business School Breakfast Session themed “2026: The New Geo-Strategic Dispensation.” Rewane argued that the four companies offer a combination of scale, earnings visibility, and pricing power that positions them to outperform in a market still grappling with macroeconomic uncertainty, FX volatility, and high interest rates.
“MTN, Dangote Cement, Guinness, and Okomu Oil stand out not just for their financial performance, but for the structural advantages that make their earnings more predictable. Timing and entry price remain critical, as FX stability and interest rate direction will largely determine how much of the projected upside is realised,” Rewane said.
Telecoms: MTN Nigeria’s data-driven growth
MTN Nigeria, currently the second most valuable stock on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) with a market capitalisation of N11.2 trillion, exemplifies the defensive characteristics that investors are seeking. The company has benefited from the consolidation of Nigeria’s telecoms sector, where MTN, Airtel Africa, and Glo dominate subscriber numbers. This concentration has limited aggressive price competition, supporting earnings stability.
FDC projects MTN Nigeria’s revenue to rise to N7.8 trillion in 2026, a 58 per cent increase, with profit after tax expected at N1.44 trillion, up 44 per cent. Growth is underpinned by higher data usage, rising smartphone penetration, and the expansion of digital services. Tariff adjustments and disciplined cost management further support margins.
Investors are also drawn to MTN’s current valuation. Trading at an estimated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14x, the stock is considered reasonable given its defensive characteristics and strong double-digit earnings growth. Market observers note that FX stability and potential interest rate moderation could further boost sentiment toward Nigeria’s telecoms sector. MTN’s share price has already reflected impressive gains in 2025, rising 166 per cent from N200 at the start of the year to N531.70 per share as of December 17, ranking it 24th on the NGX in year-to-date performance.
Cement: Dangote’s consolidated advantage
Dangote Cement Plc, Nigeria’s third most valuable listed company with a market capitalisation of N10.4 trillion, highlights how sector consolidation can underpin predictable earnings. The cement industry is dominated by Dangote, BUA Cement, and Lafarge Africa, giving leading players significant pricing power.
FDC forecasts Dangote Cement’s revenue at N5.3 trillion for 2026, up 27 per cent from 2025, with profit after tax expected to rise 44 per cent to N1.4 trillion. Growth drivers include government-backed infrastructure projects, increased clinker exports, tighter cost control, and improved energy efficiency. The stock trades at a P/E of roughly 13.5x, which analysts argue underestimates the company’s earnings potential.
While sensitive to FX movements and interest rates, Dangote Cement’s scale and pricing power make it a preferred play in the materials sector. Its share price has already appreciated 28.4 per cent over the course of 2025, closing at N614.90 per share on December 17.
Agribusiness: Okomu Oil’s palm oil opportunity
Okomu Oil Palm Plc offers investors exposure to Nigeria’s agribusiness sector, particularly palm oil, which remains a highly fragmented market. Vertically integrated players such as Okomu and Presco dominate production, benefiting from economies of scale, policy support, and import tariffs on crude palm oil.
FDC projects Okomu Oil’s revenue at N351 billion for 2026, a 62 per cent increase, with profit after tax expected to rise 121 per cent to N161 billion. Rising production volumes, cost efficiencies, and high domestic prices underpinned by import tariffs support margins. Trading at about 16.4x earnings, Okomu is seen as an attractive risk-reward proposition despite FX sensitivity. Its share price rose from N444 at the start of 2025 to N1,109 by mid-December, a 150 per cent gain, reflecting strong investor appetite for agribusiness exposure.
Guinness Nigeria’s premium edge
Guinness Nigeria Plc completes FDC’s list of 2026 buy recommendations, offering investors exposure to Nigeria’s brewing sector. The market is highly consolidated, allowing leading players to exercise pricing power while maintaining volume.
FDC forecasts revenue of N704 billion for 2026, up 42 per cent, with profit after tax projected at N21.6 billion, a 35 per cent increase. The stock trades at a P/E of 12.2x, reflecting both premium product pricing and a strong distribution network. Stable oil prices and improving macroeconomic conditions could ease costs and support consumer demand, though interest rate and FX volatility remain potential risks. Guinness Nigeria is currently the 27th most valuable stock on the NGX, with a market capitalisation of N577 billion.
FDC’s recommendations highlight how company fundamentals are closely linked to broader macroeconomic conditions. With Nigeria still facing high interest rates and persistent FX volatility, investor appetite for equities remains cautious. In this environment, defensive, cash-generative blue chips are favoured, offering resilience against economic shocks while maintaining potential for growth.
“The defensive characteristics of these four companies, combined with their scale and pricing power, make them attractive candidates for 2026. But market timing and entry price remain critical, as macro conditions will largely dictate the extent of gains realised,” Rewane said.
The performance of MTN, Dangote Cement, Okomu Oil, and Guinness Nigeria also reflects a concentration of market capitalisation in a small group of large, well-established companies. MTN and Dangote Cement alone account for nearly 23 per cent of the total NGX equity market, highlighting the influence of a few dominant stocks on overall market sentiment and index performance.
For portfolio managers and retail investors, FDC’s recommendations signal a pragmatic approach: focus on large-cap, cash-generative, and structurally defensible companies in a market still vulnerable to macroeconomic shifts. The emphasis on scale, earnings visibility, and pricing power suggests that market participants are prioritising risk-adjusted returns and defensive growth.
The case for sector-specific bets is also clear. Telecoms offer exposure to digitalisation and data monetisation, cement provides infrastructure-driven earnings visibility, palm oil captures commodity-linked growth with policy support, and brewing benefits from consolidated pricing power. Together, these equities offer a diversified exposure across defensive and cyclical segments.
While valuation remains a consideration, FDC argues that these stocks offer a balance between growth potential and defensive characteristics, making them particularly suitable for medium-term investors positioning for 2026 and beyond.
