Nigeria remains indisputably a mono-product economy with crude oil (and some gas) as the mainstay of its economy for several decades. Consequently, the fate of its economy is intricately tied to the vicissitudes of the oil sector, resulting in the ‘boom-bust cycles’ that have remained the sad lot of the Nigerian economy — despite claims of diversification by successive administrations.
It has followed, therefore, that till date, any incident that affects the oil sector hits Nigeria hard. The raging war in the Middle East is a typical example. The upshots and ripples of the conflict that came into the open since February 28, 2026, have literally shattered the Nigerian economy; taking it back into the woods. It is therefore apposite and politic that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has put in place a Presidential Petroleum Reform Taskforce (PPRT).
Since the composition, terms of reference, and timelines for the panel are already in the public space, I do not want to repeat them here. However, given what has been the economic history, geopolitics and political economy of Nigeria in the past six decades, it becomes imperative that certain issues must be addressed by the PPRT, directly or indirectly. Hereunder, therefore, are my seven-point unsolicited memorandum to the Panel:
First: Forward crude oil sales (for loans) deals in the past one decade that are still causing a lot of distortions in the expected and actual inflows from the commodity needs an urgent review. What volume of oil is mortgaged to whom? For what duration, and what are the other (explicit and implicit) conditions? Who actually entered into what agreement on behalf of the country? Were due processes followed, including relevant legislative oversight, and approvals?
Second: What are the direct and indirect effects of the “forward sales” on the inability of the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) to meet the crude (input) requirement of local refiners — especially Dangote Refinery? Adjunct to this would be the state of the “Naira-for-Crude” initiative, under which Dangote Refinery was to be sourcing crude locally in Naira. What has become of this creative idea? Why would a local refinery with the capacity to meet local demands of all refined products (and export) be “forced” to be importing crude oil in a country that is the (supposed) largest African producer/exporter of the commodity?
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) latest data, refineries in Nigeria spent a whooping sum of N5.7 trillion on the importation of crude oil (input) in 2025 alone. The refineries were grappling with persistent feedstock shortages, exposing a very worrisome paradox in the country’s oil sector. This must be addressed with the “urgency of now,” in the deliverables of the PPRT.
Third: The PPRT must address once and for all, the bizarre phenomenon of crude oil theft. At one point, under this outlandish development, Nigeria was losing 70 to 90 percent of its oil production to ‘thieves.’ Although the situation has reportedly been improving, now is the time for the Taskforce to propose ways to put the final nail in the coffin of this wicked phenomenon.
It is the height of betrayal, sabotage and unpatriotic behaviour for people in the marketing and distribution chain of the commodity to be colluding (covertly or overtly), and be selling Nigeria’s oil by dubious means. Loading or shipping of crude oil is such an elaborate, and ordinarily well-documented business that is governed by global rules and standards. The Taskforce must unravel the roguery.
Fourth: The Presidential Taskforce must come up with ‘best ways’ to definitively deal with the insecurity of oil and gas pipelines and other assets. For too long, in spite of whatever arrangement the government has put in place, massive vandalism and destruction of oil assets persist. This, coupled with oil theft, has left Nigeria incapable of meeting its OPEC quota for a long while.
Currently, Nigeria’s 2026 budget assumes a daily oil output of 1.84 million barrels per day, but production has since remained below 1.50 million barrels per day. In this regard, the PPRT must determine whether the involvement of non-state actors in the security chain is worth continuing or not. Also, is this manner of insecurity peculiar to Nigeria; and if not, how do other oil nations handle their own?
Fifth: Nigeria’s oil sector is plagued by environmental challenges, mainly due to oil spills, gas flaring, water pollution, soil degradation, and poor waste management. The Niger Delta region, the major oil-producing area of the country, has suffered the worst degrees of these challenges over the years. The PPRT must come up with a winning formula to deal with these issues.
Relevant sections of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) must be activated to decisively deal with these worrisome issues. After all, crude oil exploration and production (E & P) is not a Nigerian thing. Therefore, extant global environmental standards must be adopted and applied in Nigeria, going forward.
Sixth: The job of decisively determining the fate of Nigeria’s four refineries that have been left moribund for upwards of a decade is cut out for the PPRT. Shrouding the state and fate of those very important national assets in secrecy keeps evoking public angst and opprobrium against the government of the day.
While probing the billions of dollars that are claimed to have been sunk into “reviving” or maintaining those refineries remains imperative, immediate sale of the facilities needs be considered a top priority. Those refineries have for too long remained a huge dent on the liberalisation and deregulation records of successive administrations.
Seven: Must the President and Commander-in-Chief of the country be the Petroleum Resources Minister? What are the pros and cons of the status quo? For slightly over a decade now, successive Presidents of Nigeria have opted to add the oil minister portfolio to their very crowded responsibilities. Although this issue might not be within the terms of reference of the PPRT, it is of great public interest that the arrangement is interrogated.
Overall, it must be acknowledged that the PPRT is composed of people with broad and deep experience and exposure, not only in the oil and gas sector, but also in the broader Nigerian economy, and more. Led by the co-founder and first chief executive officer of Guaranty Trust Bank Plc, Mr. Fola Adeola, the PPRT has the ‘Divine Mandate’ to proffer lasting solution to the myriad issues that have been confronting Nigeria’s oil and gas industry for decades.
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Marcel Okeke, a practising economist and consultant in Business Strategy & Sustainability based in Lagos, is a former Chief Economist at Zenith Bank Plc. He can be reached at: obioraokeke2000@yahoo.com; +2348033075697
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My 7-point unsolicited memo to Nigeria’s oil Reform Taskforce