Onome Amuge
Nigeria relied heavily on fuel imports in November 2025 to stabilise domestic supply, as refinery shutdowns and delayed commissioning continued to weigh on local production, according to a performance update from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
Despite issuing one new refinery establishment licence and one construction licence during the month, domestic refining capacity remained largely offline. Waltersmith Refinery’s 5,000 barrels-per-day Train 2 was still undergoing commissioning in November, while several modular refineries reported no active production.
The lack of output left Nigeria’s fuel balance dependent on inventories and imports, particularly for petrol, at a time when authorities were seeking to rebuild stocks ahead of year-end demand.
Refinery shutdowns and weak domestic output
According to the downstream petroleum regulator, no refinery production activities were recorded in November, with facilities remaining on shutdown mode. Diesel (automotive gas oil, AGO) evacuation during the month was limited to volumes produced before 24 May 2025, averaging 0.349m litres per day.
Average capacity utilisation across reporting refineries ranged between 62 and 91 per cent, but these figures reflected evacuation and residual supply rather than fresh output. Average AGO supply during the month stood at between 0.060m and 0.296m litres per day, depending on facility, underscoring the sector’s limited contribution to national demand.
Planned domestic supply volumes continued to trail benchmarks, reinforcing Nigeria’s structural dependence on imports for refined products.
Imports boost petrol availability
Daily supply of premium motor spirit (PMS) rose sharply in November, driven primarily by imports undertaken by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which acted as supplier of last resort.
The regulator attributed the increase to four factors: weak supply in September and October that fell below national demand thresholds; the need to rebuild national stock levels ahead of peak festive-season consumption; direct PMS imports by NNPC to guarantee availability; and the rollover of 12 vessels initially scheduled to discharge in October but delayed into November.
Average daily PMS consumption in November was 52.9m litres, exceeding the 2025 demand benchmark of 50m litres per day. Diesel consumption averaged 15.4m litres per day, compared with a benchmark of 14m litres, while aviation fuel and LPG consumption broadly tracked expected levels.
National fuel sufficiency stood at 17 days for petrol, 35 days for diesel and 15 days for aviation fuel, indicating a relatively comfortable short-term supply position despite upstream constraints.
Pump prices reflect currency and logistics pressures
Average retail petrol prices varied widely across the country, reflecting transport costs and regional supply dynamics. In Lagos, the average pump price was N910 per litre, compared with N975 in Kano and N982.50 in Maiduguri. Indicative pump prices were calculated using an average Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM) rate of N1,443.85 per dollar.
During the period, dated Brent crude averaged $63.65 per barrel, while gasoline costs stood at $732.52 per metric tonne, anchoring domestic price expectations in global markets despite the partial deregulation of fuel pricing.
Gas supply steadies amid power and export demand
While refined product output struggled, gas supply showed relative stability. Average daily gas supply totalled 4.684bn standard cubic feet per day in November, with 2.6bn scf directed to the domestic market and 2.084bn scf exported.
Nigeria LNG operated at 73.7 per cent utilisation across Trains 1–6, receiving an average of 3.5bn scf per day. Gas-to-power accounted for 0.645bn scf per day, while gas-based industries consumed 0.420bn scf per day.
LPG supply averaged 4,958 tonnes per day, comfortably above consumption of 3,992 tonnes, with retail prices ranging from N950 to N1,500 per kilogram.
Slow progress on refining reform
The NMDPRA highlighted ongoing refinery construction and commissioning as a key policy priority, but November’s data underline the slow pace of progress in translating licences into output. With domestic refineries still offline and demand rising, Nigeria’s downstream market remains exposed to foreign exchange volatility, shipping constraints and global price swings.
Until new capacity becomes fully operational, analysts say imports will continue to play a decisive role in keeping fuel available, and politically sensitive pump prices broadly stable, in Africa’s largest oil producer.
