Onome Amuge
The Nigerian equity market closed the final full trading week before Christmas on a notably confident note, extending a rally that has come to define 2025 as one of the strongest years for domestic equities in recent memory. Despite a holiday-shortened calendar and sharply reduced trading volumes, investor sentiment remained firmly risk-on, buoyed by year-end portfolio adjustments, selective bargain hunting and sustained confidence in large and mid-cap bellwethers across consumer goods, banking and industrials.
By the close of the week, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) All-Share Index had advanced by 0.97 per cent to 153,539.83 points, decisively breaching the psychologically important 153,000 level. Market capitalisation tracked the index higher, rising by 0.98 per cent to N97.89 trillion. The gains came from just three trading sessions, after the federal government declared Thursday December 25 and Friday December 26, 2025, public holidays for the Christmas celebrations.
The performance capped another chapter in what has been a powerful year-long rally. With the latest advance, the NGX’s year-to-date return improved further to 49.17 per cent, underlining the resilience of Nigerian equities in the face of domestic macroeconomic adjustments and global market volatility. Equity investors added an estimated N953.4 billion in paper wealth during the week alone, reinforcing the sense that the market’s bullish bias remains intact heading into the final trading days of the year.
Festive optimism, rather than caution, set the tone. Portfolio managers and proprietary traders continued to rebalance holdings ahead of year-end book closure, with flows concentrated in fundamentally strong names that are perceived to offer earnings resilience and attractive dividend prospects. Buying interest was particularly pronounced in bellwether stocks such as Guinness Nigeria, Aluminium Extrusion Industries, United Bank for Africa (UBA) and BUA Cement, all of which contributed meaningfully to index gains.
Market breadth painted a similarly constructive picture. 44 stocks advanced during the week, compared with 30 decliners, producing a positive breadth ratio of roughly 1.5x. While the number of gainers was slightly lower than the previous week’s tally of 55, the reduction reflected fewer trading sessions rather than any broad-based loss of momentum. Indeed, 73 equities closed unchanged, up from 55 a week earlier, signalling a pause rather than a reversal in market positioning.
Sectoral performance leaned decisively positive, underscoring the broad-based nature of the rally. Five of the six major sector indices closed the week in the green. The NGX Consumer Goods Index led the advance, gaining 3.34 per cent, closely followed by the NGX Banking Index, which rose 2.93 per cent. These sectors benefited from renewed demand for stocks such as International Breweries, Meyer, First HoldCo, Guinness and UBA, as investors positioned for potential earnings surprises and dividend declarations in the coming reporting season.
The industrial space also contributed to the upbeat tone. The NGX Industrial Index added 1.17 per cent, supported by gains in Aluminium Extrusion Industries, Austinlaz, BUA Cement and WAPCO. The NGX Commodity Index edged up by 0.05 per cent, while the Oil and Gas Index finished largely flat, reflecting a more cautious stance toward energy names amid mixed global crude price signals.
Insurance was the notable outlier. The NGX Insurance Index fell 2.13 per cent over the week, weighed down by sell-offs in names such as NEM Insurance, AXA Mansard Insurance and Prestige Assurance. Analysts attributed the weakness to profit-taking following earlier gains, as well as lingering concerns over underwriting margins and investment income in a high-yield but volatile macro environment.
While prices pushed higher, trading activity told a different story. Total turnover declined sharply, reflecting the shortened trading week rather than a deterioration in investor interest. According to the NGX weekly report, investors traded a total of 2.876 billion shares valued at N63.83 billion in 80,229 transactions. This represented a heavy fall from the previous week’s 9.849 billion shares worth N305.84 billion traded in 126,584 deals.
In percentage terms, total volume and value traded dropped by 70.8 per cent and 79.12 per cent week on week, respectively, while deal count fell by 36.6 per cent. Market participants were quick to note that the declines were mechanical, driven by the reduction to three trading days, rather than indicative of waning appetite for equities.
Activity remained concentrated in a handful of sectors and stocks. The Financial Services Industry dominated the activity chart, accounting for 1.984 billion shares valued at N32.68 billion traded in 31,632 deals. This translated to nearly 69 per cent of total market volume and just over 51 per cent of total value, highlighting the sector’s continued centrality to market liquidity.
The Investment Industry followed, with 208.7 million shares worth N2.26 billion traded in 640 deals, while the Conglomerates Industry ranked third, recording a turnover of 147 million shares valued at N6.09 billion in 1,676 deals. Trading in just three equities (Abbey Mortgage Bank, VFD Group and Custodian Investment), accounted for more than half of total market volume, underscoring the narrowness of liquidity during the holiday period.
Individual stock performances reflected both speculative interest and fundamental positioning. Aluminium Extrusion Industries, Austinlaz, International Breweries, Mecure Industries and First HoldCo emerged as the top five gainers, posting notable price increases over the week. On the losing side, Legend Internet, Champion Breweries, NEM Insurance, AXA Mansard Insurance and Associated Bus Company recorded the steepest declines.
Beyond secondary market activity, corporate actions also featured prominently. The NGX announced the listing of an additional 2.348 billion ordinary shares of Chams Holding Company following the completion of its rights issue. The new shares, priced at N1.70 each on a one-for-two basis, lifted the company’s total issued and fully paid-up shares from 6.65 billion to 9.0 billion. The listing increases Chams’ free float and could improve liquidity in the stock over time, although investors will be watching closely for evidence that the capital raised translates into earnings growth.
In a separate notice, the exchange confirmed the opening of trading in Fidson Healthcare’s rights issue of 600 million ordinary shares at N35.00 per share, offered on a one-for-four basis. The healthcare company’s move highlights the continued use of equity capital markets by Nigerian corporates to fund expansion and strengthen balance sheets, even as valuations remain elevated after the year’s rally.
From a technical perspective, market indicators continue to point to strength. The All-Share Index remains comfortably above its key short- and medium-term moving averages, confirming the prevailing uptrend. Momentum indicators are still supportive, though some analysts caution that the length and speed of the rally increase the likelihood of mild pullbacks as traders lock in profits, particularly in early 2026.
Looking ahead, market participants expect bullish sentiment to carry into the final trading days of the year, albeit with heightened selectivity. Year-end rebalancing remains underway, and investors are likely to rotate into stocks with strong fundamentals, solid cash flows and clear dividend visibility as positioning shifts toward the new trading year. Liquidity conditions are also expected to improve once normal trading schedules resume after the holidays.
For now, the Nigerian equity market appears to be ending 2025 much as it spent most of the year defying sceptics, rewarding risk-takers and reinforcing its status as one of the standout performers among frontier and emerging markets.
