Joy Agwunobi 

At a time when rising food prices, transport fares and utility costs are stretching household budgets across Nigeria, replacing a smartphone might appear counter-intuitive. Nevertheless, across open markets in major commercial hubs such as Lagos,Kano, Onitsha/Aba and Port Harcourt, phone retailers continue to report steady customer traffic, while online vendors push refreshed models aggressively into the market.

For many Nigerians, upgrading a smartphone has gradually shifted from a discretionary purchase to a calculated necessity.

As households juggle school fees, rent and food expenses, the smartphone increasingly serves multiple roles at once,  a workplace, a bank, a marketplace and, for some, a symbol of relevance in a fast-moving digital society. This reality has made device spending difficult to postpone, particularly among younger Nigerians whose livelihoods and social lives are deeply intertwined with mobile technology.

“I use a Redmi 13C,” said Deborah Michael, a teacher based in Badagry, while also noting  “I upgraded because I needed better camera quality, more storage and improved internet connectivity. In today’s world, having a good phone is no longer optional. It has become a priority, regardless of the economic pressure.”

Smartphones as tools for work and income

Beyond communication, smartphones now sit at the centre of Nigeria’s informal and digital economies. Social selling, freelance work, delivery coordination, remote jobs and content creation are increasingly conducted entirely on mobile devices. For many users, purchasing a better phone is viewed less as consumption and more as an investment in productivity and earnings.

Ezike Onyeka, a Lagos-based freelance journalist, said his decision to upgrade was driven purely by work demands. “My old phone couldn’t support my work properly, the memory was low, performance was slow, and the operating system was outdated. With my new Techno Spark 20 Smart, I can work more efficiently and meet deadlines better. As a remote worker, I needed a device with higher memory capacity and a stronger operating system,”he said.

Students and professionals face similar pressures. Smartphones are now essential for accessing course materials, registering for online classes, applying for jobs and participating in remote interviews. Falling behind digitally often translates into missed opportunities, pushing families to prioritise device spending even when finances are tight.

For content creators, the link between phone quality and income is even more direct. Onuigbo Chibundu, a content creator based in Imo State, said device upgrades are critical to sustaining her work.
“I stream frequently and create video content, so camera quality and performance matter a lot,”   she explained, while also adding “I run ads for brands and earn from live streams, so my phone directly affects my income. That’s why I use devices like the iPhone 14 Pro and Samsung S23 Ultra for content creation.”

Data confirms a wider market shift

This lived experience is now reflected in market data. According to Omdia’s latest research, Africa’s smartphone shipments surged 24 percent year on year to 22.8 million units in the third quarter of 2025, marking a return to double-digit growth after five consecutive quarters of slowdown. The rebound outpaced the modest recovery recorded in the global smartphone market, pointing to region-specific drivers rather than a broad-based global upswing.

Nigeria emerged as one of the standout markets in the rebound, accounting for 14 percent of Africa’s total smartphone shipments and recording a 29 percent year-on-year growth. The figures underline a defining contradiction in the country’s digital economy: even as purchasing power remains under pressure, demand for smartphones, particularly affordable and mid-range devices continues to strengthen.

Omdia attributes the continental recovery to stronger demand in key markets, relative currency stability in select economies, rising adoption of device financing and improving retail activity. In Nigeria’s case, growth was driven largely by accelerated imports following naira stabilisation and refreshed sub-$150 device portfolios, which continue to dominate mass-market demand.

Replacement, not luxury

Rather than signalling a return to conspicuous consumption, the data points to a more pragmatic pattern. Most Nigerian consumers are not upgrading to premium devices; they are replacing ageing phones that can no longer meet the demands of a digital-first economy.

Sluggish performance, limited storage, battery degradation and the loss of software and security support increasingly render older devices impractical. As major fintech, messaging and social media applications phase out support for outdated operating systems, users are often left with little choice but to upgrade.

In a country where smartphones double as banks, offices, classrooms and marketplaces, device performance has a direct impact on earning capacity and daily productivity. For a POS agent processing real-time transactions, a delayed app response can mean lost customers. For an online trader, an outdated camera or unsupported app can reduce visibility and sales. In this context, upgrading becomes less about aspiration and more about economic participation.

Nigeria’s growth contrasts with peers

While Nigeria and Egypt each accounted for 14 percent of Africa’s smartphone shipments in the quarter, the drivers behind their recoveries differed significantly. Egypt recorded 19 percent growth, largely fuelled by stronger momentum in the $150–250 mid-range segment, supported by bundled offers and expanded mass-market distribution.

Nigeria’s growth, by contrast, was rooted firmly in the lower end of the market. Refreshed sub-$150 devices dominated sales, spurring replacement upgrades in open-market retail channels. This divergence highlights how national economic conditions continue to shape consumer behaviour across the continent.

South Africa led with 31 percent growth, boosted by prepaid acceleration in the value and mid-tier segments, supported by new launches and deeper retail promotions with retailers such as Pepkor and Ackerman’s benefiting from the removal of the 9 percent  ad valorem tax earlier this year. 

Kenya grew 17 percent  year on year, powered by rising device-financing penetration – now a major driver of smartphone sell-through – as retailers and operators scaled instalment-based plans that boosted demand for refreshed entry-level models.

“Africa delivered an exceptional dual surge in Q3 – sub-$100 smartphones climbed 57 percent, their fastest rise in three quarters, while the above $500 grew 52 percent. The entry tier was supercharged by TRANSSION, which posted 25 percent year-on-year growth driven by resilient demand across Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa. This growth was reinforced by refreshed hero models such as TECNO’s Camon 40 and Spark 40, Infinix’s Hot 60 and Smart 10, and itel’s A90. Samsung dominated premium-tier expansion with the Galaxy S24 and S24 FE 5G demand from markets like South Africa, Senegal, Algeria. However, overall growth was modest 5 percent, as consumers gravitated toward value models A06, A07, and A16,” the report stated.

Across these markets, one pattern is clear that smartphone growth is increasingly tied to affordability structures and access mechanisms rather than rising disposable income.

Financing reshapes upgrade behaviour

One of the most significant but  understated drivers of Africa’s smartphone rebound is the growing role of financing. Omdia notes that rising financing adoption has become a critical factor in stimulating demand, particularly in price-sensitive markets.

In Nigeria, this trend is gaining traction through informal instalment arrangements, retailer-led payment plans and buy-now-pay-later schemes embedded within fintech ecosystems. While these options lower upfront costs, they also spread financial pressure over time, shifting device ownership into longer-term obligations.

For consumers navigating economic uncertainty, financing offers a compromise as access to functional devices without a large one-time expense. However, it also introduces new vulnerabilities, especially in the absence of robust consumer protection frameworks around device credit.

A fragile balance for the digital economy

The smartphone has become foundational infrastructure in Nigeria’s digital economy, underpinning financial inclusion, e-commerce, remote work and informal trade. The current upgrade momentum reflects this centrality, but it also exposes a vulnerability  when access to functional devices depends on narrow affordability bands; any pricing shock can have far-reaching consequences.

Omdia’s outlook for 2026 introduces a note of caution. The research firm expects Africa’s smartphone market to decline by 6 percent next year as supply-side pressures intensify. Rising bills of materials, tight memory availability, elevated shipping and insurance costs, and persistent currency weakness are expected to hit the low-end 4G segment hardest.

“Africa’s smartphone market is expected to decline 6 percent in 2026 as supply-side pressures intensify. Rising BOM costs, tight memory availability, elevated shipping and insurance fees, and persistent currency weakness will disproportionately affect the low-end 4G segment, where most African demand is concentrated,” Manish Pravinkumar, principal analyst at Omdia,stated. 

Pravinkumar added “These pressures will push ASPs higher, especially in the $80–150 band, creating renewed affordability challenges for consumers. To navigate this environment, vendors must strengthen financing partnerships, optimise channel inventory, and localise more aggressively to manage costs and sustain upgrade momentum despite the economic headwinds.”

The recent rebound, therefore, should not be read simply as a sign of renewed consumer confidence. Instead, it reflects a fragile balance in which Nigerians continue to prioritise smartphones because opting out of the digital ecosystem carries its own economic cost. How long that balance can hold will depend on whether affordability can be preserved amid mounting global and local pressures.