A mixed inflation trend emerged in February 2026 as overall price pressures moderated slightly while food costs climbed, highlighting ongoing supply-chain challenges affecting household consumption.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that headline inflation eased to 15.06 per cent in February, compared with 15.10 per cent recorded in January.
Although the decline marks the second consecutive monthly moderation, the improvement in the general inflation index was overshadowed by a sharp spike in food inflation, which economists say could continue to pressure household spending.
The CPI rose to 130.0 in February, compared with 127.4 in January, representing a 2.6-point increase in the average price level during the month.
The CPI measures the average change over time in the prices of goods and services consumed by households and remains the primary gauge used to assess inflation dynamics across the economy.
Data from the statistics bureau shows a contrasting result between core and food inflation, indicating that while policy measures are beginning to stabilise non-agricultural prices, structural supply challenges are driving higher food costs.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, declined to 15.88 per cent in February, down from 17.72 per cent in January, a drop of 184 basis points.
By contrast, food inflation rose to 12.12 per cent, up from 8.89 per cent recorded in January, representing a 323-basis-point increase and the largest monthly increase in the food sub-index in more than a year.
The easing in core inflation is partly attributed to policy actions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The apex bank reduced the Monetary Policy Rate by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent, marking a shift toward a more accommodative policy posture after an extended period of aggressive rate hikes aimed at containing inflation.
The policy adjustment has helped reduce corporate borrowing costs and ease financial pressures on businesses, contributing to the cooling in non-agricultural price growth.
Economists also point to improved exchange-rate stability as a key factor behind the moderation in core inflation.
A more stable naira has helped reduce imported input costs for manufacturers and service providers, limiting the pass-through of exchange-rate volatility into domestic prices.
Large industrial firms have also implemented cost-control strategies to mitigate the impact of fuel price volatility and logistics expenses.
Manufacturers including Dangote Cement and Lafarge Africa have accelerated the deployment of compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks as part of energy-transition initiatives aimed at stabilizing transportation costs.
The growing use of CNG-powered haulage fleets has reduced reliance on diesel and petrol, helping to insulate supply chains from fluctuations in fuel prices.
Industry analysts say such logistics adjustments have played an important role in containing production costs for industrial goods, preventing energy price volatility from fully feeding into core inflation.
Despite the cooling in core prices, food inflation remains a major concern for households and policymakers.
The NBS attributed the rise in food prices primarily to seasonal supply shortages and rising input costs across agricultural supply chains.
Global disruptions in fertilizer markets and higher transportation costs have also contributed to increased food production and distribution expenses.
On a month-on-month basis, food inflation rose to 4.69 per cent in February, compared with a 6.02 per cent decline recorded in January, reflecting an acceleration in food price increases within the month.
Several staple food items recorded notable price increases during the period, including beans, cassava tubers, millet flour, yam flour, crayfish, carrots, snails and dried ogbono.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest contributor to overall inflation, accounting for 6.03 percentage points of the headline index.
Other major contributors included restaurants and accommodation services, which accounted for 1.95 percentage points, and transport, which contributed 1.61 percentage points.
Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels accounted for 1.27 percentage points, while education services contributed 0.93 percentage points to the overall index.
Despite the monthly increase in food prices, Nigeria’s inflation rate recorded a significant improvement on a year-on-year basis.
The NBS reported that the February 2026 headline inflation rate was 11.21 percentage points lower than the 26.27 per cent recorded in February 2025.
Food inflation also declined significantly compared with the previous year, falling from 26.98 per cent in February 2025 to 12.12 per cent in February 2026.
Similarly, core inflation dropped from 25.66 per cent in February 2025 to 15.88 per cent in February 2026.
However, the bureau noted that price increases accelerated on a monthly basis.
Overall month-on-month inflation rose to 2.01 per cent in February, compared with a 2.88 per cent decline in January.
“This means that in February 2026, the rate of increase in the average price level was higher than the rate recorded in January,” the statistics agency said in the report.
The report also highlighted variations in inflation patterns between urban and rural areas.
Urban inflation stood at 15.53 per cent year-on-year in February, significantly lower than the 28.49 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, urban inflation rose to 2.55 per cent, compared with a 2.72 per cent decline recorded in January.
Rural inflation also declined on an annual basis but increased within the month.
The NBS reported rural inflation at 13.93 per cent year-on-year, compared with 22.73 per cent recorded in February 2025.
On a month-on-month basis, rural inflation increased to 0.71 per cent, up from a 3.29 per cent decline in January.
Inflation levels varied widely across states, reflecting differences in transportation costs, supply chains and consumption patterns.
Kogi recorded the highest all-items inflation rate at 23.57 per cent, followed by Benue at 22.85 per cent and Anambra at 22.09 per cent.
By contrast, Katsina recorded the lowest inflation rate at 7.78 per cent, followed by Imo at 11.66 per cent and Ebonyi at 11.71 per cent.
Monthly inflation also showed disparities across states.
Enugu recorded the highest month-on-month inflation increase at 5.92 per cent, followed by Ogun at 4.39 per cent and Anambra at 4.11 per cent.
Meanwhile, Zamfara recorded the heaviest decline at minus 2.14 per cent, followed by Bauchi at minus 1.23 per cent and Katsina at minus 1.06 per cent.
For food inflation specifically, Kogi recorded the highest year-on-year rate at 26.91 per cent, followed by Adamawa at 23.12 per cent and Benue at 21.89 per cent.
Conversely, Katsina recorded the slowest rise in food prices at 5.09 per cent, followed by Bauchi at 7.09 per cent and Imo at 7.65 per cent.
The statistics bureau cautioned that inflation comparisons across states should be interpreted carefully because consumption patterns and CPI weights differ across locations.
