Onome Amuge

The cocoa industry, a cornerstone of Nigeria’s economic diversification and a major source of non-oil foreign exchange, is facing an existential threat.  With less than four months until a landmark European Union regulation on deforestation-free products takes full effect, the country’s $700 million sector is scrambling to meet new standards or risk being shut out of its most lucrative market. The stakes could not be higher for the over 300,000 smallholder farmers who form the backbone of this vital industry.

The challenge comes in the form of the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), a regulatory framework designed to combat and mitigate the environmental consequences of deforestation. The regulation, a key component of the EU Green Deal, mandates that all cocoa and a host of other commodities imported into the bloc must be proven to be deforestation-free, legally produced, and fully traceable back to their origin. The deadline for full compliance is December 30, 2025, a one-year extension granted by EU institutions. For Nigeria, which ships over 60 per cent of its cocoa to European markets, compliance is considered as not merely an option, but an economic, environmental, and developmental imperative.

The urgency of the situation is underscored by the growth Nigeria’s cocoa sector has recently showcased. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s cocoa exports witnessed a 606 per cent increase in the last quarter of 2024, rising from N171 billion to N1.2 trillion. This growth reflects not only robust global demand but also the potential of the country’s agricultural sector as a strategic lever for economic transformation. 

As one of the world’s top four cocoa producers, with an average annual output of around 320,000 tonnes, Nigeria’s position in the global market is significant. Failure to adhere to the EUDR could trigger a domino effect of trade disruptions, economic hardship for farmers, and a severe reduction in foreign exchange earnings.

The federal government, long under pressure and criticism for its slow approach to international market standards, appears to be acting with a newfound sense of urgency. The recent Nigeria-EU Cocoa Roundtable on EUDR Compliance, held at the State House in Abuja, marked a crucial turning point. The event brought together key government officials, farmers’ associations, exporters, and development partners to create a strategy and a clear roadmap for traceability and sustainability.

Kingsley Uzoma, the senior special assistant to the president on agribusiness and productivity enhancement, framed the EUDR challenge as a pivotal moment for the country. “Nigeria stands ready and resolute to meet the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) compliance framework,” he stated, explaining that the regulation’s core requirements (traceability, due diligence, and proof of deforestation-free supply chains) reinforce environmental stewardship. 

Jumoke Oduwole,the minister of industry, trade and investment, described the EUDR as a formidable challenge and a transformative opportunity. She noted that the regulation aligns with President Bola Tinubu’s ‘Nigeria first’ agenda, which prioritises sustainable land use and environmental justice. “Compliance is not optional. It is an economic, environmental and developmental imperative; and importantly, we have to support our domestic farmers and investors who are in this space,” she stressed. 

 The role of technology and collaboration in mounting a national response

As it stands, the path to compliance demands a level of coordination and technological capability that Nigeria’s agricultural sector has not historically possessed. According to analysts, the most significant hurdle is traceability. With production spread across hundreds of thousands of smallholder farms, manually tracking each farmer’s parcel of land to prove it is not from deforested areas is an almost insurmountable task without modern technology.

However, the government stated that it is moving to fill this gap. Matthew Adepoju, the director-general and CEO of the National Space Research and Development Agency (NASRDA), assured stakeholders that his agency is prepared to provide the necessary data and satellite technology to ensure compliance. 

NASRDA stated that it can leverage satellite imagery, which it has archived since 1975, to show that cocoa farmlands have not recently encroached on protected forests. “The issue of producing cocoa that meets the guidelines of the EU is simply for us to show and support our farmers with space technology. If commissioned today, this assignment can be completed within three to four months,” Adepoju stated.

Yet, technology alone is not enough. The legal and land use component, which requires proving that a farm is legally recognised, presents a different kind of challenge. As Ajayi Olutobaba, the chairman of the National Taskforce on EUDR Compliance pointed out, the challenge with legality resides with state governments. While most exporters are already an estimated 60 per cent compliant, achieving full compliance requires seamless alignment across various ministries, state governments, private sector actors, and international partners, a coordination feat that Nigeria’s federal structure has often struggled to achieve.

Financing is another key constraint. Uzoma noted that funding gaps limit production growth, quality improvement, and compliance readiness. Existing support funds, like the Nigerian Agricultural Development Fund (NADF), are under budgetary strain, highlighting the need for innovative financing models, such as a dedicated cocoa sector credit line with flexible repayment terms.

While the EUDR presents a challenge, it is also considered a powerful catalyst for a much-needed transformation of Nigeria’s cocoa value chain. The regulation is forcing the industry to professionalise, modernise, and move towards a model that creates more value within the country. Uzoma highlighted several transformative opportunities that could be unlocked through compliance:

• Value addition and job creation: By meeting EUDR standards, Nigeria can prioritise local processing and shift from raw exports to higher-value products such as chocolate, cocoa beverages, and cocoa butter. This would create more jobs and ensure more of the value is retained within Nigeria’s borders.
• Increased yields and sustainability: The push for better agricultural practices and the revitalisation of aging plantations could deliver up to 50 per cent higher yields. This would not only benefit farmers but also reduce the pressure to clear new land, aligning with the core intent of the EUDR.
• Access to climate finance: Compliance with the regulation positions Nigeria to tap into climate finance and carbon credit schemes, potentially attracting significant international funding for its eco-friendly initiatives.

Some key industry players are already ahead of the curve. Taiwo Osun, the sustainability manager for Tulip Cocoa Processing Limited, stated that the company has long been committed to a sustainability programme that aligns with global best practices. “We are strengthening traceability systems to ensure supply chains from farm to export are transparent,” he said, 

However, the concerns of the smallholder farmers remain a central issue. Last year, the National Cocoa Management Committee (NCMC) and the Cocoa Farmers Association of Nigeria (CFAN) wrote to the EU Commission to seek a review of the regulations, fearing the consequences of a sluggish national response. While the current push for compliance is welcomed, significant challenges, including financing gaps and budgetary strain on support funds like the Nigerian Agricultural Development Fund (NADF), threaten to limit production growth and compliance readiness.

The dual nature of the EUDR as both a threat and a catalyst for change is considered a recurring theme amongst key discussions. Analysts assert that by prioritising local processing, modernising aging plantations, and investing in traceability technologies, Nigeria’s cocoa industry could not only secure its place in global supply chains but also attract climate finance and create new job opportunities for its youth. 

Meanwhile, the next few months are expected to be crucial in determining whether Nigeria can transform the looming EUDR challenge into a long-term competitive advantage.