Nigeria’s bullish economic reforms are yielding results suitable for economic growth over the long term, even though the impact does not appear to be immediately very visible. The federal government recently penned down strategic fiscal and economic reforms, some of which are already being implemented while others will be implemented in 2026. Nigeria recorded a total foreign trade position of ₦74.062 trillion, which consists of ₦43.349 trillion (41.47%) exports and ₦30.713 trillion (58.53%) imports, yielding a trade balance of ₦12.636 trillion (17.06%) between January 2025 and June 2025.

The quarter-on-quarter results are very remarkable, as there is more alignment of Nigerian players to export more goods than import in recent times than in prior times as seen during the period under review.

The total trade improved slightly by 5.59 percent, increasing from ₦36.025 trillion to ₦38.038 trillion. Meanwhile, the trade surplus surged by 44.31 percent quarter-on-quarter, rising from ₦5.172 trillion in Q1-2025 to ₦7.464 trillion in Q2-2025, as imports decreased by 0.90 percent from ₦15.426 trillion to ₦15.287 trillion and exports rose impressively by 10.45 percent from ₦20.598 trillion to ₦22.751 trillion. A further review revealed that some trade shortfalls, which should have been recorded in March 2025, were instead accounted for in April 2025 and June 2025. These developments resulted in March 2025 having the lowest total trade position of ₦11.590 trillion, April 2025 having the second-highest total trade position of ₦12.718 trillion, and May 2025 achieving the highest total trade position of ₦13.695 trillion due to increased exports. 

The total volume of trade between H1 2024 and H1 2025 is relatively stable, reflecting a slight decline of 1.94 percent in dollar terms. Despite the nominal naira value of the total trade increasing by 12.88 percent from ₦65.609 trillion in H1 2024 to ₦74.062 trillion in H1 2025, the average naira-to-dollar exchange rate depreciated by 15.12 percent from ₦/$ 1346.30 to ₦/$ 1549.83 over the same period year on year. The year-over-year export trade increased by 17.51 percent, rising from ₦38.891 trillion in H1-2024 to ₦43.349 trillion in H1-2025, primarily due to the declining ₦/$ exchange rate, while the dollar value of these exports only increased by 2.08 percent, from $27.401 billion to $28.168 billion.

On a y-o-y comparison, the imports appear to have increased by 6.94 percent from ₦28.719 trillion in H1-2024 to ₦30.713 trillion in H1-2025, but the dollar equivalent declined by 7.10 percent from $21.332 billion to $19.817 billion in H1-2025.

Of the total export trade in H1-2025, the value of crude oil exported is ₦24.921 trillion, accounting for 57.49 percent of total exports, with April 2025 having the lowest share of crude oil exports to total exports at 48.97 percent and April 2025 also having the highest share of non-oil exports to total exports at 17.02 percent. In a q-o-q comparison, Q2-2025 delivered the highest share of non-oil exports at 15.38 percent, behind Q2-2020 at 15.86 percent between 2020 and 2025. The Q2-2020 value of non-oil exports was reasonably high at 15.38 percent, reasonably high due to the prices of oil reaching a very low futures price value of negative $37.63 per barrel arising from logistics issues. The issues related to the negative price of crude oil  per barrel stemming from the Covid crisis. 

In H1-2025, agricultural-related exports contributed the most to the economy after crude oil and other oil-related products. Agricultural-related exports of ₦2.961 trillion total account for 6.83 percent of the total value of goods exported in H1-2025. The standard-quality cocoa beans and superior-quality cocoa beans, along with cashew nuts, are the most traded commodities for the period. There are concerns about cashew nuts. Concerns arise because the only processed product among the leading agricultural exports in H1-2025 is natural cocoa butter, which has a total value of ₦184.115 billion, representing just 6.22 percent of total agricultural exports and about five percent (5%) of the cocoa exported as raw material to other markets. 

Behind agriculture, raw materials, with a value of ₦1.864 trillion and a 4.30 percent share of total exports, were also a significant non-oil export. In Q2-2025, important contributions came from urea, nonmonetary gold (like gold coated with platinum), specially processed natural rubber, different urea-based products, cocoa powder in blocks, leap preparations in blocks, and other tanning products. 

The solid minerals sector recorded the lowest share of export goods in H1-2025, amounting to ₦136.173 billion. The solid mineral sector delivered only 0.31 percent of total goods exported.

Petroleum still primarily drives Nigeria’s billion-dollar international trade balance. Nigeria’s petroleum, which includes petroleum oils, oils obtained from bituminous minerals, and crude oil, accounted for 52.60 percent of total exported products. 

Non-petroleum products, such as spirits and minerals, collectively accounted for 26.29 percent of the total products imported in Q2-2025. Non-petroleum products, including spirits, petroleum oils, oils derived from bituminous minerals, crude products, and various minerals, collectively accounted for 26.29 percent of the total imports in Q2-2025. Imports from West African countries accounted for a significant portion of the total imports. Despite being led by motor spirit trade-inclined countries, it is also led by non motor spirit products, as Nigeria traded a high share of other fabrics containing 85 percent or more by weight of silk with other West African countries. 

As regards global trading partners in Q2-2025, Spain leads with ₦2.467 trillion (10.85% of world total exports), followed by India at 8.71 percent, France at 7.13 percent, and the Netherlands at 6.75 percent, among others. 

Regarding imports into Nigeria, China leads with ₦4.961 trillion, accounting for 32.45 percent of Nigeria’s global total imports. Also relating to imports, the United States of America comes next, as trade with the U.S. accounts for 14.12 percent, which is likely to decline in subsequent periods due to increased tariffs, followed by India at 5.90 percent and the Netherlands at 3.97 percent, among others. Togo displaced South Africa from the position of Nigeria’s largest trading partner in Q2-2025 when compared to Q1-2025 (3.97%). Togo’s total trade position with Nigeria in Q2-2025 is ₦1.024 trillion, split between a recorded ₦811.969 billion, 27 percent of goods exported, and ₦211.991 billion, 25.81 percent of goods imported. Trade of goods with African countries within the Q2-2025 review reflects that major trade was more of non-crude oil-related products.

In Q2-2025, for re-export transactions involving goods imported into Nigeria and then exported to other destinations without significant transformations, the Netherlands led with ₦275.171 billion, accounting for 57.95 percent of total re-exports, while Equatorial Guinea followed with ₦96.88 billion in re-exports. In Q2 2025 position for Nigeria, re-exports account for 20.40 percent of total exports, primarily consisting of machinery and equipment. The total value of re-exports for Q2-2025 was ₦474.876 billion, primarily consisting of machinery and equipment, 2.09 percent of total exports. 

Mineral products accounted for ₦4.499 trillion, which was 29.43 percent of the total goods imported in Q2-2025, followed by boilers, machinery, appliances, and their parts at ₦3.178 trillion, representing 20.79 percent of total goods imported. 

Asia led the chart of the continents. In H1-2025, Nigeria primarily imported goods from Asia, totalling ₦16.420 trillion (53.46%), followed by Europe with ₦7.105 trillion (23.14%). 

However, in terms of total exports from Nigeria, Europe led with ₦17.331 trillion (39.98%), while Asia followed with ₦14.175 trillion (32.70%). Africa’s poor contribution, which accounts for 5.94 percent of total imports, 11.12 percent of total exports, and 8.97 percent of total foreign trade, highlights the necessity for African countries to leverage AfCFTA to redistribute wealth within Africa rather than expand the wealth of nations in Europe and Asia, where African nations export raw materials to and import finished, refined, and value-added products from. International trade, without retaining value within the local community, impedes sustainable economic growth, development, and progress in Africa.

Lekki Deep Sea Port has attracted Nigerian international trade players to use it as an exit and entry point for goods distributed via the country’s shores. Despite Apapa Port leading the nation in exports in both Q1 2025 and Q2 2025, the share of total exports from Lekki Deep Sea Port increased from 1.47 percent in Q1 2025 to 10.58 percent in Q2 2025, displacing Tin Can Island and the Port Harcourt (3) Onne ports from second and third positions in Q1 2025. As pertaining to imports, Lekki Deep Seaport also improved its performance from 10.99 percent in Q1-2025 to 16.44 percent in Q2-2025, reducing the share of Tin Can Island ports on a q-o-q basis. If the Lekki Deep Sea Port’s current strategy is sustained, it will further tend to decongest the Apapa port, reducing the time lag between when goods are available at the ports and delivery to their final destination.

The steady economic situation, favourable expectations for foreign exchange rates, and stronger external reserves played a big role in the trade surplus of ₦12.636 trillion ($8.153 billion) for the first half of 2025, which was the highest in Africa for that period, even though the average price of crude oil, Nigeria’s main source of trade income, went down. The average market price for the monthly position in H1-2025 was $73.46/barrel, below the $75.00/barrel presented in the 2025 Appropriation Act, the 2025–2027 Medium Term Expenditure Framework and the Fiscal Strategy Paper for the Federal Republic of Nigeria. There are opportunities for an increase in the trade surplus balance as the economic recovery path for Nigeria is sustained over the short to medium term.

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