Onome Amuge
Headline inflation in Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, slowed for the fifth consecutive month in August 2025. Data released on Monday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that annual inflation eased to 20.12 per cent in August, from 21.88 per cent in July, its lowest reading in almost two years. This marks a sharp retreat from the 32.15 per cent recorded a year earlier.
On a month-on-month basis, the headline rate slowed to 0.74 per cent in August, compared with 1.99 per cent in July, indicating that price increases are moderating across much of the economy.
However, the latest figures reveal widening disparities between urban and rural inflation trends. Urban inflation eased to 19.75 per cent in August from 34.58 per cent a year earlier, while rural inflation stood slightly higher at 20.28 per cent compared with 29.95 per cent in August 2024.
Month-on-month, urban inflation slowed to 0.49 per cent from 1.86 per cent in July. Rural inflation also decelerated but remained higher, at 1.38 per cent compared with 2.30 per cent in July.
Food inflation, which makes up more than half of Nigeria’s consumer basket, moderated to 21.87 per cent year-on-year in August, down from 37.52 per cent in August 2024. On a monthly basis, it slowed to 1.65 per cent from 3.12 per cent in July.
The easing was linked to falling prices of key staples including rice, maize flour, guinea corn flour, millet, semolina, and soya milk. The 12-month average for food also fell to 25.75 per cent, compared with 36.99 per cent a year earlier.
Still, analysts caution that food prices remain elevated, especially in the northern states where insecurity, poor logistics, and flooding have repeatedly disrupted production and distribution.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, stood at 20.33 per cent year-on-year in August, down from 27.58 per cent a year earlier. Yet the index rose on a monthly basis to 1.43 per cent, from 0.97 per cent in July, signalling renewed pressures in housing, utilities, transport, education, and healthcare.
Across Nigeria’s 36 states, inflation patterns were uneven. Ekiti posted the highest year-on-year headline inflation at 28.17 per cent, followed by Kano at 27.27 per cent and Oyo at 26.58 per cent. By contrast, Zamfara at 11.82 per cent, Anambra at 14.16 per cent, and Enugu at 14.20 per cent recorded the lowest readings.
Food inflation was particularly high in Borno at 36.67 per cent, Kano at 30.44 per cent, and Akwa Ibom at 29.85 per cent. States such as Zamfara (3.30 per cent), Yobe (3.60 per cent), and Sokoto (6.34 per cent) recorded the lowest food inflation rates.
Month-on-month, inflation rose fastest in Yobe (9.20 per cent), Katsina (8.59 per cent), and Sokoto (6.57 per cent), while Enugu (–5.32 per cent), Taraba (–3.64 per cent), and Nasarawa (–3.56 per cent) saw price declines.
The release of the inflation figures comes just days before the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee meeting on September 22–23. The committee will weigh whether to maintain or adjust the current benchmark interest rate of 27.5 per cent.
According to analysts, five straight months of disinflation could strengthen the case for the CBN to pause further tightening, but the persistence of food and core inflation is expected to keep policymakers cautious.
