Onome Amuge
Nigeria’s crude oil production fell for the second consecutive month in September 2025, sliding to 1.39 million barrels per day (bpd), according to the latest Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) released by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
The figure, obtained through direct communication with Nigerian authorities, represents a decline from 1.434 million bpd in August and marks the country’s lowest output in seven months. It also leaves Nigeria below its OPEC quota of about 1.5 million bpd, a setback that reveals the fragility of recent recovery efforts.
The dip comes barely months after Nigeria’s production had shown signs of stabilisation between June and July, when renewed security efforts and field restarts lifted output closer to OPEC’s target. Now, however, industry watchers say the September slide reveals the persistent vulnerabilities plaguing Africa’s largest oil producer.
While crude theft and vandalism remain long-standing threats, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has attributed the latest fall primarily to industrial action. In its own monthly report, the Commission said September’s combined crude and condensate output averaged 1.581 million bpd, of which crude accounted for 1.39 million bpd and condensates for 191,373 bpd.
The decline followed a three-day strike by members of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), which led to the temporary shutdown of several production and export terminals.
In a letter to regulators dated September 29, 2025, Bayo Ojulari, the group chief executive officer of NNPC Limited, confirmed that the industrial action caused significant production deferments and projected revenue losses from missed crude liftings and reduced gas sales.
“The strike disrupted export schedules and forced unplanned shutdowns across key assets,” Ojulari noted, warning that such incidents, if repeated, could hamper the national target of restoring confidence among international oil buyers.
For a government counting on higher oil receipts to fund its 2025 budget, the timing of the output decline could not be worse. Crude oil remains Nigeria’s largest foreign exchange earner, accounting for over 80 per cent of export revenues and a major contributor to the country’s fiscal stability.
With global oil prices fluctuating amid geopolitical tensions and OPEC supply adjustments, Nigeria’s ability to meet production targets is crucial to maintaining revenue forecasts and shoring up foreign reserves.
NNPC Limited has reiterated its commitment to raising production to at least 1.8 million bpd by the end of 2025, leveraging improved security surveillance in the Niger Delta and ongoing investment in upstream assets.
The company says progress is being made through collaboration with security agencies and community contractors to combat oil theft and sabotage along key pipeline corridors. Several modular refineries and field redevelopment projects are also underway to enhance capacity.
However, industry experts caution that production recovery will depend as much on labour stability and regulatory predictability as on physical security. “Technical downtime and social disruption are now as damaging as theft,” noted Bala Zakka, an oil and gas analyst.
Nigeria’s latest shortfall also has implications for OPEC’s collective output strategy, especially as the group seeks to balance supply discipline with members’ domestic revenue needs. With several African producers struggling to meet quotas, analysts warn that Nigeria’s performance will be closely watched within the cartel.
At the same time, declining output risks denting investor confidence in Nigeria’s upstream sector, just as the government is trying to attract new exploration spending through the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) and marginal field licensing rounds.
