Oil rose on Friday as the three-week-long conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran showed no signs of de-escalation, with the U.S preparing to deploy thousands of additional troops to the Middle East. Brent crude for May delivery climbed 91 cents, or 1 per cent, to $109.64 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for April, expiring Friday, increased $1.29, or 1.3 per cent, to $97.43. The more liquid May WTI contract traded at $97.05, up 1.5 per cent.
The uptick comes amid fresh attacks targeting Iranian energy infrastructure and retaliatory strikes by Iran on neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait. While President Donald Trump said Thursday that Israel would not repeat assaults on energy facilities, market sentiment increasingly reflects expectations of prolonged supply disruptions, particularly around the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz.
“The potential for a quick reversal in energy prices is unlikely because damage has been done to production,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Analysts note that Brent is poised to gain about 6 per cent on the week, while WTI remains down 1.3 per cent from last Friday, with the WTI discount to Brent widening to its largest in 11 years on Wednesday.
U.S. officials confirmed that thousands of additional Marines and sailors are being deployed to the region, with some units departing three weeks ahead of schedule, underscoring the country’s intent to secure energy transit routes and deter further escalation. President Trump reinforced his hardline stance on Iran, stating that no negotiators remain and reiterating the demand that Tehran abandon its nuclear ambitions.
Friday’s exchanges of attacks between Israel and Iran, including a strike on a Kuwaiti refinery, further amplified market concerns. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirmed that removing oil sanctions on stranded Iranian cargoes could deliver supplies to Asian markets within three to four days. He also indicated that Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases would continue over the coming months, a move analysts expect to partially mitigate, but not offset, broader supply risks.
Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 per cent of the world’s oil and LNG flows, remain the primary driver of elevated prices. “As long as the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, the path of least resistance for crude prices remains to the upside,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol warned that restoring full oil and gas flows from the Gulf region could take up to six months, cautioning that both markets and policymakers were underestimating the scale of the disruption.
The Trump administration is reportedly considering further measures, including occupation or blockade of Iran’s Kharg Island, to pressure Tehran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a scenario that could further constrain supply and sustain upward price pressure.
The volatility reflects the regional impact of the conflict. Brent rode past $119 per barrel on Thursday after Iran retaliated against an Israeli attack on a major gas field, temporarily knocking out 17 per cent of Qatar’s LNG capacity, a disruption projected to take up to five years to fully repair. While rising gas exports partially offset some losses, analysts warn that crude prices are unlikely to retreat significantly until the geopolitical situation stabilizes.
