…2025’s N1.4trn budget mangled by emergency rule
Ben Eguzozie
Rivers, Nigeria’s second‑largest sub‑national economy after Lagos, will not table its 2026 appropriation until the new N19.6 billion State Assembly complex is finished at the end of December 2025.
Governor Siminalayi Fubara, after a site inspection of the reconstruction work being carried out by Monier Construction Company Ltd (with interior works subcontracted to Julius Berger), said the chamber must be “ready for the dignified presentation of the budget” before any legislative action can proceed.
The delay caps a year of political and fiscal upheaval. In 2025 the state’s N1.4 trillion budget—originally an N800 billion proposal presented to a splintered Assembly—was derailed by a bitter showdown between the governor and 27 lawmakers led by Speaker Martin Amaewhule. The rade‑off culminated in a Supreme Court ruling that froze Rivers’ Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) transfers, prompting President Bola Tinubu to impose emergency rule, sacking the governor and the entire Assembly, and unilaterally approve a N1.4 trillion budget months later.
Why the construction matters
Infrastructure lock‑in: the rebuilding work on the two‑storey complex at the cost of N19.6 billion, will house 32 legislators, 34 offices, elevators, galleries, meeting rooms, a conference hall and an ambulance bay. Its completion, originally slated for nine months, was pushed back by the March 18 emergency rule imposition by President Tinubu .
Signal of stability: for investors, the physical seat of legislation is a proxy for governance quality. The governor’s insistence on a “proper” chamber underscores a bid to restore confidence after months of legislative deadlock .
Economic contrast: development analysts note that Rivers, which matched Lagos in budget size as recently as 2010, now trails far behind. Lagos’ GDP exceeds $259 billion, while Rivers languishes around $33 billion, highlighting the missed potential of its oil wealth.
Business implications
The direct business implications of the impending delayed fiscal rollout are legion: the postponement of the 2026 appropriation postpones the release of capital projects, stalling procurement cycles that could have spurred local construction and supply chains. Second is fractured investment climate: the prolonged political drama has already dented investor sentiment; the governor’s public commitment to a completed complex may be a turning point, but risk premiums remain high.
Also, there is heavy fiscal dependence. Rivers still leans heavily on federal allocations and oil‑derived derivation funds. Any disruption to the FAAC flow, as seen in February, directly curtails spending capacity. Though the state runs second in internally generated revenue (IGR) in the country, several years of fragile political climate in the state continue to puncture increased IGR haul.
Outlook
If the Assembly complex is delivered by year‑end, Rivers could pivot to a more predictable budgeting cycle, unlocking the N1.4 trillion fiscal envelope and reigniting projects in energy, infrastructure and agribusiness. However, the state’s ability to translate its oil riches into sustainable growth will hinge on resolving the underlying governance rift and maintaining a stable, transparent fiscal framework.
What will be the biggest catalyst for Rivers to close the GDP gap with Lagos—political reconciliation, a new revenue‑sharing formula, or a specific sectoral investment, only time will interpret.
